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Ochai Agbaji
Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports
Dalzell's Dish

CBB National Championship Player Props: Agbaji, Love, Bacot, McCormack

by Vaughn Dalzell
Updated On: April 4, 2022, 10:28 am ET

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The College Basketball Championship is here and North Carolina as No. 8 seed faces No. 1 Kansas (-4). If you plan on getting into the player prop action for the final game of the NCAA Tournament, here is NBC's Player Prop Model projections for all players predicted to play at least 10 minutes with breakdowns on four players below.

UNC vs Kansas

 

Kansas' Ochai Agbaji is projected to be the leading scorer with 21.8 points. His prop line is 16.5 and top point scorer prop is +380, which are both of Vaughn Dalzell's strong leans for this game. Agbaji has scored 17-plus points in 26 out of 38 games (68.4%) and totaled 11, 15, 5, 18 and 21 points in five tournament games.

Agbaji had a few big games against teams like Texas Tech, Michigan State and Baylor this season scoring 37, 29, 27 and 24 points. We talked about his value for most outstanding player on our Final Four Twitter Spaces at +500 odds and he is now the favorite at +125.

Tom Casale likes North Carolina's stellar guard Caleb Love. Our model predicts Love to score 18.6 points and play the full 40 minutes. Love has played 39 or 40 minutes in the last three games and scored 28, 14 and 30 points.

Love's point prop opened at 15.5 and is now up to 17.5. Love topped 15.5 in 10 of the last 14 games (71.4%) but only 17.5 in eight of the last 14 (57.1%). Love is +500 for most outstanding player.

UNC's Armando Bacot will be worth watching. Bacot injured his ankle in the previous game and has a big matchup down low with Kansas' David McCormack. Bacot has averaged 15.4 PPG and 16.8 RPG in five tournament games.

Our model projects Bacot to record his sixth-straight double-double in the tournament and seventh-overall with 17.7 points and 13.2 rebounds. Bacot's point prop is 14.5 and most books are not offering his rebound prop.

McCormack is coming off games of 15 and 25 points, yet our model pegs him at 12.9 points. That is a slight edge since his points prop is 10.5 and 11.5 on various books. If Bacot is limited and Kansas wins, McCormack could be a sleeper for tournament's most outstanding player at +650, while Bacot is slightly favored over him at +550.

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