Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his game picks, the Over/Under and two player props worth targeting for Super Bowl LVII between the Eagles and Chiefs!
Eagles (-1.5) vs. Chiefs: O/U 51.0
We are almost here! Super Bowl LVII!
While Hartford and Boston isn't as exciting as Los Angeles and attending Radio Row for me last year, I want to have another successful Super Bowl and end the season on a BANG (Mike Breen voice).
Let's start with the spread. Only 18 times in Super Bowl history has the betting line moved more than 1.5 points.
That is what happened here with the Eagles opening as +1.5 and now sitting at -1.5. Of those 18 times, the team that saw the line movement go in their direction (Philly) are 16-2 on the ML (88.9%) and 14-4 ATS (77.8%) in those 18 Super Bowls!
I played the Eagles ML at -125 odds, but that trend is not the reason why. Let's dive into the spread, 1H and Over/Under.
These were the two highest scoring teams in the NFL for the first half. The Eagles averaged 18.2 points per game compared to the Chiefs at 15.5 points per game. On the road, the Chiefs led the league with 18.4 ppg and the Eagles were second at 16.6.
However, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have struggled in the first half of his two Super Bowls versus the 49ers and Bucs. The Chiefs tied with the 49ers 10-10 at the half, while they trailed the Bucs 21-6. Now enter all the injuries for the Chiefs offense and another slow start would not surprise me.
I love this Philly defense as four Eagles' had at least 11 sacks this regular season with the second-highest pressure rate with four rushers. Philly also ranked second in EPA per play with a blitz, so expect Mahomes to get rid of the ball as quick as possible to avoid pressure and taking losses.
The secondary for the Eagles ranks second in DVOA against opposing No. 1 receivers and fourth against opposing No. 2 receivers and sixth in DVOA against tight ends.
Besides Travis Kelce, I am not worried about any of the Chiefs wide outs as JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kadarius Toney and Mecole Hardman were all dealing with injuries from the AFC Championship.
For the Chiefs defense, they run mostly two-high coverage, more than any other team. The Eagles use three-receiver sets almost 70% of the time, so Kansas City will likely stick with that and forfeit the run a little.
Pressure on Jalen Hurts will be key. The Chiefs defense ranked third in EPA per play when they got pressure and dead-last when they did not. Hurts completed 45% of his passes under pressure this year, so there is your key to success for Kansas City.
This will be a close game. The Eagles are 7-1 versus playoff teams this season with a plus-115 point differential, while the Chiefs have not lost a game by more than four points all season. Both quarterbacks have had injury issues lately and both defenses have stepped up in the postseason.
I played the Eagles ML at -125 odds and the Game Under at -110, which is playable down to 49.5. The Under is 9-3-1 in the last 13 Super Bowls with a total of 50 or more. This is the 14th Super Bowl with a total of 50 or more.
I will look for a live angle to get the Chiefs within +6.5 or +7. In Mahomes' career, he has started 93 games and either had a lead or been within one score in the fourth quarter 90 out of 93 times (96.7%). Kansas City is a better live bet, in my opinion.
Pick: Eagles ML (Risk 2u). Under 51 (1u)
My Official Card
Risk 2u: Jerick McKinnon Under 23.5 Rushing Yards (-120) -- Read Here
Risk 2u: Philadelphia Eagles ML (-125)
1u: Travis Kelce Over 7.5 Receptions (+120) -- Read Here
1u: Chiefs vs Eagles Under 51.0 (-110)
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