Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how he is betting Jerick McKinnon's rushing prop of 23.5 in Super Bowl LVII between the Chiefs and Eagles.
Jerick McKinnon O/U 23.5 Rushing Yards vs. Eagles
Our first Super Bowl player prop will be on a line that is way too high for Jerick McKinnon.
In the postseason, McKinnon went Over this prop once and Under once. Versus the Jaguars, McKinnon ran for 25 yards on 11 rushing attempts before going for 1-yard on 4 rushing attempts against the Bengals.
I am not sure the game script will be positive enough against the Eagles front seven for McKinnon to rush for more than 23 yards or see enough carries in the process.
McKinnon has ran more routes than he has recorded rushing attempts in every single game this season. McKinnon averages 4.5 rushing attempts per game for 16.6 yards per game compared to 3.0 receptions on 3.9 targets per game, so basically even on targets to carries.
McKinnon has five or more rushing attempts in eight of 19 games this season (42.1%) and stayed Under 23.5 rushing yards in 13 out of 19 contests (68.4%).
With two weeks to heal, both Patrick Mahomes and his offensive weapons will have time to get healthier. Isiah Pacheco will remain the bell-cow as he totaled 10 and 12 rushing attempts in both postseason games along with eight or more rushing attempts in 11-straight games.
This will be both Pacheco and McKinnon's first Super Bowl, while third-string running back Ronald Jones will be playing in his second.
In Mahomes two Super Bowls, his starting running backs received nine and 17 carries with the backups totaling four rushing attempts. Mahomes also ran for a combined 62 yards on 14 carries and a touchdown in those games.
I played the Under on McKinnon's Rushing Yards at -120 odds. This on DraftKings and BetMGM. I would play this down to 20.5 and expect a closing line somewhere between 15.5 and 19.5 rushing yards.
Pick: Under 23.5 Rushing Yards (Risk 2u)
MY OFFICIAL CARD
Risk 2u: Jerick McKinnon Under 23.5 Rushing Yards (-120) -- Read Here
Risk 2u: Philadelphia Eagles ML (-125) -- Read Here
1u: Travis Kelce Over 7.5 Receptions (+120) -- Read Here
1u: Chiefs vs Eagles Under 51.0 (-110) -- Read Here
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