Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how he is betting the Chiefs' Travis Kelce's receptions prop versus the Eagles in Super Bowl LVII.
Travis Kelce O/U 7.5 Receptions vs. Eagles
Let's focus on Travis Kelce's receptions prop because he should be fed during Super Bowl LVII.
It's not just Patrick Mahomes' injury (ankle), but there's a plethora of injuries to the Chiefs' wide receiver room. JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee), Kadarius Toney (ankle/hamstring) and Mecole Hardman (pelvis) are all questionable for the Super Bowl.
We were told Kelce had a back injury entering the AFC Championship, but they must have had him confused for Marquez Valdes-Scantling the way MVS carried the team on his back at points. That more than likely will not repeat in the Super Bowl and if we can count on one thing, it's Kelce will get his targets in that offense.
This postseason, Kielce recorded seven receptions on eight targets versus the Bengals and 14 receptions on 17 targets against the Jaguars for 21 receptions on 25 targets (84%).
In two Super Bowls, Kelce totaled 10 receptions on 15 targets against the Bucs and six receptions on six targets versus the 49ers for 16 receptions on 21 targets (76.1%).
As great as MVS was, and as good as Juju, Toney and Hardman can be, Kelce is option 1A and 1B in that offense. With the Mahomes ankle injury, Kelce becomes a little more dangerous as the quick-game was utilized more against the Bengals.
Kelce ran 39 routes against the Bengals, the third-most on the season behind Weeks 9 (61 vs Titans) and 5 (41 vs Raiders). I expect another 35-plus route game from Kelce and when he's posted 35 or more routes, the league's best tight end has gone 3-3 to the Over with seven, seven and four receptions in the three Unders.
Kelce is 14-6 to the Under 7.5 receptions this season and as high as this line might seem, I like the value as long as you're getting +100 or better. I grabbed +120 for Kelce to get eight-plus receptions and think 10 receptions is on the table as well as at least a dozen targets.
No tight end has ever won a Super Bowl MVP and Kelce sits at +1600 to win the award. Kelce and Miles Sanders (+2500) are my favorite MVP value bets for Super Bowl LVII if you want to fade Mahomes or Hurts.
Pick: Travis Kelce Over 7.5 Receptions (1u)
MY OFFICIAL CARD
Risk 2u: Jerick McKinnon Under 23.5 Rushing Yards (-120) -- Read Here
Risk 2u: Philadelphia Eagles ML (-125) -- Read Here
1u: Travis Kelce Over 7.5 Receptions (+120) -- Read Here
1u: Chiefs vs Eagles Under 51.0 (-110) -- Read Here
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