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The Chiefs/Bengals game is the favorite to lead the way in ownership this week. It has the highest total of the week and features the first and seventh-highest team totals.
Burrow ranks third in passing yards per game and eighth in yards per attempt. He is also projected to get his top receiver back this week. I expect the field to attack this game through Burrow, the cheaper quarterback, and then with expensive pass-catchers.
There's no better matchup for a quarterback than Detroit. The Lions are giving up 3.3 more DraftKings points per game than any other defense this year. They rank 31st in EPA per dropback allowed. Lawrence is also peaking right now, throwing six scores and no interceptions over the past three weeks.
With no Josh Allen on the main slate, Mahomes and his 27.75 team total are the obvious pay-up option. However, with so many solid value plays at quarterback, I don't see his popularity getting out of control. As a reminder, here are a few stats he ranks first in the NFL in:
- DraftKings points per game - 28.2
- Passing yards per game - 326
- Touchdowns per game - 2.6
Since 2018, Watson ranks fourth in the NFL in completion percent over expected and third in EPA per dropback. He was tenth and second in Pro Football Focus's passing grade on deep throws in his last two seasons. Jacoby Brissett ranks 27th in deep throw passing grade this year, and the Browns' offense was still putting up numbers with him at the helm. Watson is going to supercharge Cleveland's offense versus a horrid Houston squad.
Jacobs is coming off a 39-touch game that saw him become the 11th player in league history to eclipse 300 yards from scrimmage. He now leads all running backs in rushing yards and gets an LA defense that ranks 28th in EPA per rush attempt allowed. The line has now moved in favor of the Raiders as well.
Montgomery's floor in snap share over the past five weeks has been 66 percent. He is averaging 16 touches per game in that span and gets the No. 31 defense in EPA per rush attempt in Green Bay. The return of Justin Fields should also afford him better running lanes than he saw in Week 12.
Henry leads the league in yards after contact and is fourth in missed tackles forced. His receiving role has quietly seen an uptick this year as well. His 10 percent target share is set to be a career-high. He also faces a Philly defense that has given up the tenth-most fantasy points to opposing backs.
Having missed a game and already had his bye, Mixon is the RB5 in total expected points. Only four receivers have more expected points than him. He also ranks sixth in targets among running backs, insulating him from some of the effects of a negative game script.
With Mike White under center, the Jets are fun again. In White's five appearances over the past year and a half, the Jets have averaged 426 yards of total offense. Last year, Elijah Moore was the WR12 in the four games white took the field for. This year, Wilson has taken over as White's top receiver. He parlayed that role into five catches for 95 yards and two scores last week.
Since returning to a full-time role in Week 8, St. Brown is the PPR WR6. His 33 percent target share leads the league over that span. His 39 percent air yards share is 13th among receivers. Playing in a game with the second-highest total of the main slate, expect St. Brown to be a mainstay of fantasy lineups.
I don't see a single Cincinnati receiver soaking up all of the ownership, but Tee Higgins looks like he could come in as more popular than his superstar teammate. Before going down with a hip injury, Chase was hitting his stride. He logged a 29 percent target share and a 38 percent air yards share in his three most recent games. Chase also paced the team in red zone looks.
Smith-Schuster is coming off a dud week that saw him play a limited role, but it was his first game back from a concussion and the Chiefs didn't face any resistance from LA. Before the concussion, he was running a route on roughly 80 percent of Mahomes' dropbacks. He had at least 18 PPR points in his final three games before the concussion.
Moreau has left the field for six snaps over the past six weeks. The role has resulted in two touchdowns in his previous three games. Whenever Darren Waller is out, Moreau is a strong pay-down option at the weakest position in football.
Kelce is currently on pace for 40 red zone targets, which would be the record for high-value looks in a single season dating back to the year 2000. He is seventh in the NFL in receptions and sixth in receiving yards.
The Ravens have been in a slump lately, and that was only worsened by three dropped touchdowns in Week 12, one of which slipped helplessly through Andrews' hands.
However, Andrews' role is still elite. He ranks third in targets and first in air yards among tight ends since returning to the lineup two weeks ago. Denver's defense is also looking less daunting, ranking 21st in EPA per dropback over the past three weeks.
Engram has all but disappeared from the box score over the past few weeks, but his role hasn't changed. He was banged up in Week 9 but ran a route 83 percent of Trevor Lawrence's dropbacks in his following two games. Engram will have a strong shot at rebounding versus the fourth-worst defense against tight ends this week.