The fall schedule is well underway and the fields continue to impress.
This week there are 144 golfers lined up to peg it in Las Vegas while the top 65 and ties will make it through the 36-hole cut. As we've seen over the last three weeks, the new cutline rule can have a huge impact on DFS golf lineups.
Gamers should have reset their expectations by now. Most weeks we will see just 5 to 10 percent of lineups getting all 6-of-6 golfers through the cut.
Thursday (R1): Sunny with a high of 85 degrees. Gentle winds at 6 to 10 MPH.
Friday (R2): Sunny with a high of 88 degrees. Calm winds at 4 to 7 MPH.
It's officially a green light for scoring this week, given that weather forecast. Wind is the only defense that TPC Summerlin can use to defend itself against the TOUR pros but there will be no wind this week. Look for the winning score to eclipse 20-under this week.
The best part about season-long leagues is the draft. You don't get that same rush with normal DFS contests but there is hope still. DRAFT has come along to fill that void and I'm having a lot of fun playing in their weekly golf drafts.
The first place to start is to build your pre-draft rankings for the week. I will point out a few golfers I think are overvalued in the raw rankings and a few that are undervalued in the raw rankings.
Phil Mickelson (68.36 Projected Pts): His slump continued last week in Napa but his projected points remain the same. There is no reason to guess when the slump will end. Just wait for a sign of life before reinvesting.
Jason Kokrak (64.69 Projected Pts): The big hitter had a monster year in 2019 but his track record in Las Vegas is poor, to put it lightly. He is 4-for-7 at this event with just one finish inside the top 35 and 5-of-7 landing outside the top 65.
Scottie Scheffler (36.00 Projected Pts): The young Texan arrives with five straight top 20s, going back to the Korn Ferry Tour Finals. His limited ShotLink data suggests he one of the better "total drivers" on TOUR right out of the gate. Fire him up until the form slips.
Collin Morikawa (41.69 Projected Pts): The Cali native has done nothing but impress since turning pro this year. He arrives with top 40s in 8 of his last 10 starts with four top 10s thrown in along the way. That includes a win at nearby Reno and a T10 last week in Napa.
We talked about it in the weather section but I'll say it again. The forecast calls for loads of birdies and eagles this week. Let's look at past results to see what golfers can keep up in a shootout...
Looking at sample-size-adjusted performance on easy courses over the last three 3 years (PGA, KFT, Euro Tour) the top 15 performers on a per-round basis looks like this:
Byeong Hun An
Charles Howell III
Other than raw performance, we can also look at who shows the biggest improvement on easy courses (versus their baseline). Using that as the criteria, the following names pop:
Three of the top four performers on the top list have won this event over the last six years. The overlap list lacks comfort out West which is the only thing holding me back from falling in love with any of them this week. All three have winning upside, though.
Aaron Wise: The oddsmakers don't seem to be impressed with his form because that's where the salaries come from and he's underpriced across the industry this week. The Vegas resident will be as comfortable as any this week at TPC Summerlin. That's been true for his last three visits, as well, leaving with finishes of T10, T31, and T15 in three tries. Wise is an easy value option this week that should allow you to load up at the top.
Best of luck in all your contests this week!