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Luka Doncic
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Rotoworld's Draft Guide has projections, ranks, columns & so much more

by Ryan Knaus
Updated On: September 22, 2022, 2:00 pm ET

Editor's Note: Use promo code HOOPS5 for your $5 Rotoworld Fantasy Basketball Draft Guide. Get up to date rankings, projections, mock drafts, and more. Plus access to season tools to keep you at the top of your league. Get it here.

Full-league statistical projections for the 2022-23 season are available now in the Rotoworld NBA Draft Guide! Updated daily, these projections are meticulously hand-crafted by the Rotoworld hoops crew. This isn't an algorithm spitting out stats without regard to context – leveraging decades of collective experience (or decades of individual experience, in the case of @docktora), we consider every injury timetable, changing roles, returning teammates, new coaches, offseason reports, and so much more.

How accurate are our projections? As an example, Rotoworld's projected minutes for the season are within 0.67% of the ideal goal. League-wide there will be 590,000 minutes played, and our total (which changes very slightly each day) is currently 586,453 (99.33%). The same exacting level of detail is applied throughout the Draft Guide.

Rotoworld's in-house projections are also the basis for our industry-leading Top-200 rankings for 8-cat, 9-cat and Points-based leagues. With total confidence in our projections, we can run the numbers to determine objective fantasy values, allowing the numbers to speak for themselves.

For an even wider variety of rankings perspectives, look no further than Rotoworld's Staff-Average Top-200 list! You'll find personal Top-200 lists from every member of our hoops crew, plus an average of our lists. If you prefer to go into your drafts armed with an industry-expert baseline for rankings, this is your one-stop solution.

The Guide also features a powerful Punting Tool (coming soon!). With a few mouse clicks, you can sort by any category (PTS, REB, FG%, etc.) and instantly see a new 'punt' Top-200 (and values to show who gains/loses the most by punting). Pair it with Zak Hanshew's Punting Guide, and your league's managers won't know what hit them. Exclusively for Draft Guide members, custom punt builds are available upon request (@ryanknaus on Twitter).

The hoops crew has also written 300+ Player Outlooks, like the following for Mavs' superstar Luka Dončić:

2021-22:  The Mavs' superstar picked up his third All-Star and All-NBA First Team honors, putting up 28.4 points, 9.1 boards and 8.7 dimes per game. He notched career highs in shot attempts (21.6), 3-pointers (3.1), steals (1.2) and blocks (0.6). His turnovers also reached new heights (4.5) and he was still inconsistent at the free-throw line (74.4% on 7.5 attempts), a pair of asterisks that prevented him from hitting top-20 value in 8-cat/9-cat. If you punted turnovers in H2H he was still an early-round guy, and in DFS-point-scoring leagues, he was third behind only Nikola Jokić and Giannis Antetokounmpo. He led the Mavs into the Western Conference finals, but they fell in five games to the champion Warriors.

What's Changed: All reports indicate that Luka has taken his workouts and diet very seriously this offseason. In the past, he's shrugged off criticism of his weight and conditioning, and it's been hard to argue given his on-court success. However, to reach another level and sustain it throughout the postseason, he'll need to be in elite shape. One of his trainers said in August, “Shortly after the end of the season, [Luka] contacted me and said that he wanted to start fitness training immediately. Together with Goran Dragić, they worked for three weeks. The national team action followed. When he went on vacation, he asked me for a work plan."

Outlook: It would be unwise to bet against Luka this season. He's still 23 years old and if his commitment to fitness is lasting, he could legitimately flirt with a 30/10/10 triple-double. It's not far-fetched to think that he'll improve as a free-throw shooter (admittedly, we've said that each of the past two offseasons). Plus, the biggest benefit of his improved fitness might be in the games-played department. Luka logged 72 games as a rookie, but in the three seasons since then he's averaged 64 games played. With 35+ minutes per game and defenses locked into his every move, durability is critical. You'll need to spend a top-five pick to acquire him in any fantasy format – that's a bit steep in 9-cat, but there's a compelling case for him as the No. 1 player in points leagues.

Multiply that player profile by 300 to get a sense of the sea of content we've compiled.

The Draft Guide also includes team-by-team Team Previews, plus tons of exclusive columns including Jonas Nader's perennially-accurate 'Sleepers and Values'. Here are more Exclusive Features in the Guide:

  • Dr. A's "My Guys" for 2022-23 - Steve Alexander
  • Fantasy Busts - Steve Alexander
  • 2022-23 Schedule Breakdown - Steve Alexander
  • Multiple-Position Eligibility Guide - Zak Hanshew
  • Punting Guide - Zak Hanshew
  • Dynasty League Tips and Strategies - Jonas Nader
  • Hacking the Default Ranks - Noah Rubin
  • Meet the Chuckers - FG% Killers - Jared Johnson
  • Does Summer League Matter? - Jared Johnson
  • Risk vs. Reward - Jared Johnson
  • How Successful are Rookies? 2022-23 Edition - Jared Johnson
  • Ten Players Worth Reaching For - Raphielle Johnson
  • Top 10 Fantasy Rookies - Raphielle Johnson
  • 2022-23 Sophomore Breakdown - Raphielle Johnson
  • Mock drafts including Dynasty, 8-cat 'industry', 9-cat H2H, with fresh drafts added all the time...

The continuous addition of new content is key to our Draft Guide philosophy – it's a living document that we update until Opening Night on Oct. 18.

If you have questions about the Guide, just reach out to @ryanknaus on Twitter! Get it now!

Ryan Knaus

Despite residing in Brunswick, Maine, Ryan Knaus remains a heartbroken Sonics fan who longs for the days of Shawn Kemp and Xavier McDaniel. He has written for NBC Sports Edge since 2007. You can follow him on Twitter @ryanknaus.