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James Akinjo
Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports
The Egros Edge

Big 12 College Basketball Bets for Nov. 24

by Edward Egros
Updated On: November 24, 2021, 5:42 pm ET

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As of this morning, BartTorvik.com ranks three Big XII teams in his top six in the country: Texas, Baylor and Kansas. KenPom has three from this league in his top ten: Kansas, Baylor and Texas Tech. Suffice to say, once again, this conference has talent. However, if you’re looking for betting value, it may be best to discount the league’s dominance:

Baylor (-12) vs Arizona State O/U 139

Baylor head coach Scott Drew is almost starting from scratch from his national championship team: Flo Thomba is the only returning starter and guys like Adam Flagler and Matthew Mayer have had their offensive roles expanded but not overwhelmingly so. Through four games, it is off to a solid start, with a top-40 effective field goal percentage (56.8%) and an outstanding assist rate of 67.6%. Credit James Akinjo for taking the reigns at point guard and averaging eight assists per contest.

But, as you would expect, Baylor is setting this standard against competition almost all outside of the top 100 per KenPom’s rankings (not to mention Stanford is currently 90th).  Arizona State can claim a tougher road to this game, having faced UC Riverside and San Diego State. Records alone explain why Baylor is giving a dozen. As inexperienced as several might be heading to this neutral site game (the Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas), Arizona State still has Kimani Lawrence, averaging 16 points and 10 rebounds a game. He and the Sun Devils should do their share in making this contest a high-scoring affair.

EDGE: Over 139 (-110)

 

TCU (-11) vs Pepperdine O/U 130

The Horned Frogs are another group that cannot yet boast a quality win, with the lone top-100 opponent having beaten them Monday in Santa Clara. Still, Jamie Dixon is emphasizing rebounding and forcing turnovers to this year’s team, and TCU is excelling in both areas: 22nd in offensive rebounding rate (37.9%) and 41st in takeaway rate (23.9%). Mike Miles Jr., Emanuel Miller and company will find ways to score extra possessions. Fortunately for them, they get a Pepperdine team that, though may be in arguably the best mid-major conference in the WCC, have struggled protecting the basketball, coming in outside the top 300 in turnover rate (24.4%). TCU should be able to turn defense into offense and win comfortably.

EDGE: TCU -11 (-110)

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