Loading scores...
Kyler Murray
Getty Images
Evaluations

NFL Draft Analytics Top 300

by Hayden Winks
Updated On: July 28, 2019, 12:16 pm ET

Updated on 4/23/2019.

The goal of this is to predict NFL success as accurately as possible solely using analytics. Specifically, I’m predicting Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value Per Game (AV/G) statistic using models that have college production, athletic testing, and consensus big board data.

After analyzing AV/G, I found that the statistic isn’t representative of positional spending and consensus positional value, so I’ve made slight adjustments in an attempt to have my top 300 big board reflect positional value, something that seems to be underrated during the draft. Adjusting for positional value will certainly make some people #MadOnline because the quarterbacks will be ranked higher than you are used to and the running backs and safeties will be ranked lower than you are used to. If you have a problem with that, ignore the overall ranking and focus on where they are ranked within their position.

Another thing that needs to be made abundantly clear is that these rankings include each prospect’s projected draft pick. There is a huge difference between ranking prospects with their draft capital in mind (that’s what I’m doing in the NFL Draft Analytics Top 300) and ranking prospects as if they were all drafted with the same overall pick. For example, projected top-15 pick Daniel Jones and projected Day 2 pick Will Grier basically have the same projection, but if Grier and Jones were both projected to be the 10th overall pick, Grier would be ranked much, much higher than Jones.

Lastly, one improvement I’ve had in modeling for the NFL Draft is to separate positions into different archetypes. Like Josh Norris has noted on the Rotoworld Football Podcast -- subscribe and leave a review -- the weight difference between receivers Marquise Brown and D.K. Metcalf is 62 pounds, so it’d be silly to use the same model for each receiver. For that reason, I’ve split running backs, wide receivers, defensive tackles, and edge rushers into groups using weight or height as the separator. Doing so helped increase the out of sample r-squares for each model.

 

NFL Draft Analytics Top 300

Just wanted to remind you that the models include projected draft capital and are adjusted for positional value. That's why Daniel Jones is ranked highly when he's absolutely not an analytics quarterback.

 

ProspectPosition PercentileAnalytics RankPosition RankProj. Pick
Kyler Murray1.001QB11
Dwayne Haskins0.912QB211
Ed Oliver0.993DT15
Montez Sweat0.964EDGE116
Drew Lock0.805QB315
Brian Burns0.956EDGE215
Josh Allen0.937EDGE36
Will Grier0.748QB460
Rashan Gary0.939EDGE416
Quinnen Williams0.9710DT24
Noah Fant1.0011TE125
Jonah Williams0.9712OT113
Nick Bosa0.9113EDGE52
Daniel Jones0.6114QB512
Ryan Finley0.6115QB665
Devin White0.9916LB15
Khalen Saunders0.8917DT395
Andre Dillard0.9218OT215
Dexter Lawrence0.8819DT426
Devin Bush0.9820LB212
Jeffery Simmons0.9521DT525
Deandre Baker0.9722CB132
Cody Ford0.8923OT323
Jawaan Taylor0.8824OT49
Joejuan Williams0.9625CB270
Julian Love0.9626CB361
Christian Wilkins0.8327DT614
Kaleb McGary0.8628OT540
Renell Wren0.7529DT780
Garrett Bradbury0.9930IOL119
T.J. Hockenson0.9331TE211
Clelin Ferrell0.6932EDGE618
Chase Winovich0.6733EDGE755
Greedy Williams0.9334CB422
Chris Lindstrom0.9935IOL227
Zach Allen0.6536EDGE870
Ben Banogu0.6337EDGE9104
N'Keal Harry0.8438WR134
Hakeem Butler0.8339WR235
Trayvon Mullen0.8840CB565
Tytus Howard0.7441OT676
Andy Isabella0.8842WR3145
Blake Cashman0.8743LB395
Byron Murphy0.8644CB628
Isaiah Johnson0.8645CB767
Irv Smith Jr.0.8746TE353
Dalton Risner0.7247OT740
Erik McCoy0.9348IOL335
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson0.9149S139
A.J. Brown0.8450WR434
Lonnie Johnson0.8451CB838
Greg Little0.7052OT843
Amani Hooker0.8753S268
Darnell Savage0.8954S435
Justin Hollins0.5955EDGE10152
D.K. Metcalf0.7256WR524
Jamel Dean0.8057CB986
Johnathan Abram0.8658S335
Marquise Brown0.8359WR625
L.J. Collier0.5660EDGE1149
Maxx Crosby0.5661EDGE1292
Jace Sternberger0.8562TE466
Rock Ya-Sin0.7863CB1032
Amani Oruwariye0.7864CB1175
Justin Layne0.7765CB1245
Parris Campbell0.7766WR738
Jachai Polite0.5467EDGE1359
Ben Burr-Kirven0.7768LB4172
Germaine Pratt0.7969LB585
Max Scharping0.6470OT990
Tyree Jackson0.3571QB8104
Yodny Cajuste0.6272OT1087
Connor McGovern0.8473IOL490
Charles Omenihu0.5174EDGE1495
Emanuel Hall0.6475WR8103
Drue Tranquill0.7476LB6112
Elgton Jenkins0.8277IOL544
JJ Arcega-Whiteside0.6378WR972
Mack Wilson0.7179LB745
Jahlani Tavai0.7280LB880
Josh Jacobs0.8881RB127
Dillon Mitchell0.7382WR10160
Bobby Okereke0.6983LB9129
Deionte Thompson0.7384S656
David Long0.6385CB1387
Jerry Tillery0.6186DT828
Kelvin Harmon0.5487WR1169
Dawson Knox0.7588TE575
Nasir Adderley0.7189S535
Juan Thornhill0.7190S845
Saivion Smith0.5791CB14173
Anthony Nelson0.4292EDGE1589
John Cominsky0.4193EDGE16140
Dru Samia0.5694OT1198
David Long Jr.0.6395LB10143
Taylor Rapp0.6796S749
Miles Boykin0.5097WR1260
Kris Boyd0.5498CB15140
Sean Bunting0.5499CB1653
Stanley Morgan0.61100WR13248
Derick Roberson0.43101EDGE17237
Clayton Thorson0.28102QB7148
Jarrett Stidham0.27103QB9126
Dennis Daley0.52105OT12119
Mike Edwards0.61106S9130
Kaden Smith0.72107TE6139
Deebo Samuel0.58108WR1456
Jaylon Ferguson0.43109EDGE1864
Ross Pierschbacher0.49110OT13144
Bobby Evans0.48111OT14109
Mitch Hyatt0.47112OT15200
Damien Harris0.74113RB285
Michael Jackson0.41114CB17170
Darrell Henderson0.82115RB366
Vosean Joseph0.52116LB11111
Oshane Ximines0.37117EDGE19108
Ashton Dulin0.54118WR16254
KeeSean Johnson0.51119WR15200
Kendall Sheffield0.39120CB18132
David Edwards0.44121OT20135
Malik Carney0.35122EDGE20181
D'Andre Walker0.34123EDGE2185
Gerald Willis0.46124DT9109
Dre'Mont Jones0.43125DT1059
Mecole Hardman0.47126WR17101
Michael Deiter0.61127IOL682
Nate Davis0.59128IOL796
Will Harris0.41129S10160
Montre Hartage0.31130CB19216
Mark Fields0.31131CB20162
Miles Sanders0.71132RB450
Chuma Edoga0.39133OT16145
Darius Slayton0.40134WR18152
Trysten Hill0.39135DT1160
Marvell Tell0.38136S11171
Davante Davis0.28137CB21UDFA
Jamal Peters0.27138CB22UDFA
Derrick Baity0.26139CB23UDFA
Ugo Amadi0.33140S12163
Daylon Mack0.27141DT12165
Daniel Wise0.32142DT13128
David Montgomery0.59143RB582
Christian Miller0.28144EDGE2299
Kahale Warring0.51145TE7101
Oli Udoh0.36146OT17193
Cameron Smith0.38147LB12190
Tim Harris0.21148CB24UDFA
Iman Marshall0.21149CB25254
Jordan Brown0.18150CB26173
Khari Willis0.28151S13203
Sheldrick Redwine0.29152S14200
Ryan Bates0.46153IOL8209
Foster Moreau0.47154TE8149
Josh Oliver0.42155TE9108
Caleb Wilson0.41156TE10215
Justice Hill0.55157RB690
Marquise Blair0.26158S15164
Zedrick Woods0.24159S16251
Tyler Jones0.29160OT18190
Tyler Roemer0.28161OT19186
Trey Pipkins0.26162OT21200
Corey Ballentine0.18163CB27143
Jalen Hurd0.36164WR19140
Gary Jennings0.26165WR20168
Rodney Anderson0.48166RB7143
Austin Bryant0.17167EDGE23130
Benny Snell0.43168RB8190
Gardner Minshew0.19169QB10235
Keelan Doss0.33170WR21200
Blessuan Austin0.15171CB28UDFA
Derrek Thomas0.14172CB29186
Kingsley Keke0.23173DT14150
Brett Rypien0.18174QB11207
Olamide Zaccheaus0.33175WR22UDFA
Travis Fulgham0.30176WR23183
David Sills0.28177WR24170
Alijah Holder0.11178CB30UDFA
Gary Johnson0.29179LB13254
Sione Takitaki0.29180LB14220
Darius West0.20181S17247
Saquan Hampton0.16182S18238
Anthony Johnson0.26183WR25173
Deion Calhoun0.35184IOL9221
Hjalte Froholdt0.34185IOL10180
Cody Barton0.26186LB15232
Isaac Nauta0.31187TE11163
Lamont Gaillard0.32188IOL11156
Malik Gant0.13189S19187
Isaiah Buggs0.20190DT15150
Jordan Miller0.08191CB31218
Darwin Thompson0.38192RB9199
James Williams0.36193RB10250
DaMarkus Lodge0.22194WR26175
T.J. Edwards0.24195LB16231
Michael Dogbe0.19196DT16207
Alex Barnes0.26197RB11254
Ben Powers0.28198IOL12166
Joe Jackson0.04199EDGE24150
Rashad Fenton0.06200CB32UDFA
Isaiah Prince0.16201OT22231
Joshua Miles0.15202OT23214
Antoine Wesley0.19203WR27208
Dexter Williams0.34204RB12161
Devin Singletary0.33205RB1395
Emeke Egbule0.22206LB17185
Kaden Elliss0.21207LB18230
Armon Watts0.15208DT17192
Byron Cowart0.13209DT18227
Blace Brown0.05210CB33UDFA
Kendarius Webster0.04211CB34UDFA
Sutton Smith0.21212EDGE25224
Shareef Miller0.21213EDGE26215
Jordan Brailford0.20214EDGE27246
Jalen Jelks0.19215EDGE28148
Evan Worthington0.09216S20185
Trayveon Williams0.29217RB14135
Devine Ozigbo0.23218RB15215
Phil Haynes0.20219IOL13203
Beau Benzschawel0.19220IOL14175
Cortez Broughton0.11221DT19206
Bryce Love0.26222RB16230
Ryquell Armstead0.21223RB17185
Alexander Mattison0.19224RB18229
Terrill Hanks0.18225LB19150
Xavier Crawford0.04226CB35UDFA
Jamal Davis0.13227EDGE29UDFA
Carl Granderson0.13228EDGE30191
Ty Summers0.17229LB20236
Tre Watson0.17230LB21253
Jaquan Johnson0.08231S21178
Lukas Denis0.07232S22254
Yosh Nijman0.11233OT24UDFA
Greg Dortch0.19234WR28254
Trevon Wesco0.18235TE12195
Drew Sample0.18236TE13167
Jimmy Moreland0.03237CB36130
Mike Weber0.20238RB19220
Porter Gustin0.12239EDGE31UDFA
Ryan Connelly0.16240LB22253
Tyrel Dodson0.16241LB23UDFA
Mike Bell0.06242S23197
Dontavius Russell0.05243DT20191
Chris Slayton0.08244DT21254
Myles Gaskin0.15245RB20189
Qadree Ollison0.11246RB21250
Preston Williams0.12247WR29247
Andrew Wingard0.06248S24UDFA
Greg Gaines0.03249DT22250
Terry Godwin0.14250WR30250
Elijah Holyfield0.10251RB22254
Mark McLaurin0.04252S25UDFA
Kevin Givens0.05253DT23UDFA
Zach Gentry0.15254TE14254
Alizé Mack0.14255TE15254
Diontae Johnson0.12256WR31148
Terry McLaurin0.06257WR3270
Te'Von Coney0.11258LB24254
Terry Beckner0.03259DT24254
Jakobi Meyers0.05260WR34248
Riley Ridley0.01261WR3382
Dax Raymond0.10262TE16160
Karan Higdon0.08263RB23254
Deshaun Davis0.09264LB25254
Andrew Van Ginkel0.08265LB26UDFA
Dre Greenlaw0.08266LB27229
Donovan Wilson0.03267S26UDFA
Trevon Tate0.08268IOL15217
Paul Adams0.05269OT25UDFA
Derwin Gray0.05270OT26252
Joe Giles-Harris0.06272LB28234
Jonathan Ledbetter0.03273EDGE32217
Albert Huggins0.01274DT25251
Devon Johnson0.02275OT27UDFA
Nate Herbig0.06276IOL16244
Jovon Durante0.07277WR36UDFA
Felton Davis0.03278WR37UDFA
Tommy Sweeney0.02279TE17UDFA
Javon Patterson0.05280IOL17UDFA
Fred Johnson0.04281IOL18251
D'Cota Dixon0.01282S27UDFA
Jalin Moore0.03283RB24UDFA
Kerrith Whyte0.02284RB25UDFA
Jonathan Crawford0.01285S28UDFA
Hunter Renfrow0.06286WR38199
Jackson Barton0.02287OT28UDFA
Jordan Ta'amu0.04288QB12225
Lil'Jordan Humphrey0.02289WR39UDFA
Mike Jordan0.01290OT29UDFA
Hamp Cheevers0.01291CB37254
Andrew Beck0.02292TE18251
Ryan Pulley0.01293CB38UDFA
Kendall Blanton0.01294TE19UDFA
Alex Bars0.03295IOL19UDFA
Jeff Allison0.03296LB29UDFA
John Battle0.00297S29UDFA
DeMarcus Christmas0.00298DT26UDFA
Easton Stick0.04299QB13UDFA
Keenen Brown0.00300TE20UDFA
Travis Homer0.01301RB26UDFA
LJ Scott0.00302RB27UDFA
Ethan Greenidge0.02303IOL20UDFA
Jordan Jones0.03304LB30UDFA
Tyre Brady0.01305WR40UDFA
Jaylen Smith0.00306WR41UDFA
Darryl Johnson0.05307EDGE33UDFA
Tre Lamar0.02308LB31UDFA
Nick Fitzgerald0.03309QB14UDFA
Wyatt Ray0.03310EDGE34254
Zack Bailey0.01311IOL21UDFA
Kendall Joseph0.01312LB32UDFA
Dakota Allen0.01313LB33UDFA
Martez Ivey0.01314IOL22UDFA
Bryson Allen-Williams0.00315LB34UDFA
Nyqwan Murray0.02316WR42UDFA
Andre James0.01317OT30UDFA
William Sweet0.00318OT31UDFA
Jake Browning0.02319QB15UDFA
Otaro Alaka0.00320LB35UDFA
Gerri Green0.01321EDGE35UDFA
Jordan Scarlett0.00322RB28254
Trace McSorley0.01323QB16UDFA
Penny Hart0.01324WR43199
Iosua Opeta0.01325IOL23UDFA
Kyle Shurmur0.00326QB17UDFA
CeCe Jefferson0.00327EDGE36UDFA

 

Continue to Page 2 to view the variables in the models and some nuggets I picked up while studying the recent history of the NFL Draft.