The South Course at Torrey Pines is really a perfect course to utilize course-fit stats.
This monster that stretches to nearly 7,800 yards is often criticized by architect snobs and short hitters alike. Sometimes the plodders don't even show up but other times they like the course but know they are starting at a big disadvantage with a lack of firepower in their arsenal.
Adam Hadwin summed that up well in 2018, "I love Torrey Pines but it sucks for my game. I just don’t hit it quite far enough to really compete around there. I played well there but I really have to be on top of my game in order to compete at Torrey Pines and if I’m just a little bit off I’ll have trouble."
We know that length is a huge factor at Torrey Pines but there are a couple of other angles that interest me more. Hard course performance and performance on courses with fast greens.
Tough Course Performance
While each golfer will get one round of relief at the North Course this week, the remaining three rounds will be going head-to-head with Torrey Pines South.
The host course typically plays about a shot over par, give or take a stroke based on weather. It's one of the tougher scoring environments of all regular TOUR stops. Right there alongside Innisbrook, PGA National, and Augusta National in terms of lowest fantasy golf output from any course.
Here are the top performers per round, when playing on tough courses (+0.75 RTP or tougher), over the last two years:
Jon Rahm
Scottie Scheffler
Bryson DeChambeau
Will Zalatoris
Patrick Reed
Xander Schauffele
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Tony Finau
Aaron Wise
Hideki Matsuyama
Justin Thomas
Dustin Johnson
Jordan Spieth
Daniel Berger
Brooks Koepka
We can also look at a golfer's performance versus their baseline to see who over-performs most. Here is that list:
Will Zalatoris
Brandon Hagy
Francesco Molinari
Taylor Pendrith
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Matthew Wolff
Mackenzie Hughes
Dylan Frittelli
David Lipsky
Hudson Swafford
Aaron Wise
Richy Werenski
Jason Day
Tony Finau
Adam Long
Overlap List: the names that show up on both lists include Will Zalatoris, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Aaron Wise, and Tony Finau.
Ball-striking is generally the name of the game when it comes to thriving on tough courses. Zalatoris, Wise, and Finau are good examples of that. As for Bezuidenhout, he brings a stellar short game to the table. If he were to contend this week, it would need to be following a similar path that Brandt Snedeker has taken over the years at Torrey Pines.
Editor’s Note: Play for FREE! Download the NBC Sports Predictor app, make picks and win huge, weekly jackpots. Get started here!
Fast Greens
Doing well on speedy greens is not just about rolling your rock. That is why I like to revisit this performance stat quite frequently. The courses that are known for having fast greens are typically the same ones that require elite approach play or a stellar game plan of knowing where to miss.
If you short side yourself on fast greens, it's game over. So, finding top performers on fast greens usually highlights the golfers that don't rely on their flat stick or golfers with top-tier approach play.
Here are the top performers per round, when playing on courses with fast greens (over 12 feet on the stimp), over the last two years:
Jon Rahm
Xander Schauffele
Bryson DeChambeau
Justin Thomas
Dustin Johnson
Patrick Reed
Daniel Berger
Hideki Matsuyama
Charley Hoffman
Tony Finau
Cameron Tringale
Corey Conners
Jordan Spieth
Brooks Koepka
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
We can also look at a golfer's performance versus their baseline to see who over-performs most. Here is that list:
Martin Trainer
Charley Hoffman
Kevin Chappell
Robert Streb
Keegan Bradley
Cameron Tringale
Marc Leishman
Sebastian Munoz
Patrick Reed
Hank Lebioda
Luke List
Hideki Matsuyama
Brandon Hagy
Kevin Tway
Tyler McCumber
Overlap List: the names that show up on both lists include Patrick Reed, Hideki Matsuyama, Charley Hoffman, and Cameron Tringale.
Do you see a pattern here? Reed and Matsuyama have green jackets while Hoffman teases us often with fast starts at Augusta National. Reed, Matsuyama, and Tringale all have some of the best hands on TOUR when it comes to around-the-green play. We should consider that a big positive on courses with fast greens because that elite short game can save a few strokes over the course of the week.
FanDuel Focus
Will Zalatoris ($10,600): The youngster has done most of his heavy lifting on tough courses in big events. So, it was a pleasant surprise to see him get into contention last week in a birdie-fest at PGA WEST. That should give him some added confidence as he turns his attention toward Torrey Pines. Zalatoris missed the cut in his 2018 Farmers debut but returned last year to post a top-10 finish.
Aaron Wise (9,400): The California kid was electric in the fall. He ended 2021 with seven straight finishes of T26 or better. He's never had much luck in three previous attempts at the Farmers but the course should fit his game. The one downside is that he's making his first start of the new year but his price tag makes him tough to ignore if you are building multiple lineups this week.
Good luck with your lineups this week and check back this afternoon for some more course-fit analysis.