Loading scores...
FanDuel Strategy

FanDuel Fit: Arnold Palmer Invitational

by Josh Culp
Updated On: March 2, 2021, 4:03 pm ET

Last week's fill-in course, The Concession Golf Club, got rave reviews by lots of the TOUR pros. It was a tough challenge that penalized poor shots but also allowed you to rattle off some birdie streaks if your tee-to-green game was dialed in. 

We relied a lot on course fit last week but this week we can combine course fit with course history to pinpoint some strong DFS options on FanDuel. 

Personally, I want to narrow my search to golfers that enjoy fast, bermudagrass greens. 

Performance on Bermuda

It's that time of the year again when performance on bermuda becomes a key research point on a weekly basis. Last week we saw Morikawa pop up on both lists so let's see if the winner shows up again this week. 

Let's see who has performed best on courses with bermuda greens, over the last two years: 

Rory McIlroy
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Will Zalatoris
Jason Day
Tommy Fleetwood
Rickie Fowler
Bryson DeChambeau
Sungjae Im
Jason Kokrak
Rory Sabbatini
Billy Horschel
Kevin Kisner
Cameron Tringale
Viktor Hovland
Byeong Hun An

We can also look at a golfer's performance versus their baseline to see who over-performs their expectations. Here is that list: 

Kramer Hickok
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Marc Leishman
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Padraig Harrington
Joel Dahmen
Jason Day
Rickie Fowler
Denny McCarthy
Rory Sabbatini
Graeme McDowell
Byeong Hun An
Jim Herman
Tommy Fleetwood
Rory McIlroy

Overlap List: names that show up on both lists include Rory McIlroy, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Jason Day, Tommy Fleetwood, Rickie Fowler, Rory Sabbatini, and Byeong Hun An.

Sabbatini and An are two names that don't stack up with the other overlap names when it comes to long-term form but they certainly hold their own when playing on bermudagrass. 

Editor’s Note: Dominate daily with our premium DFS Tools that are packed with our lineup optimizer, a salary tracker, projections and much more. And don't forget to use promo code WELCOME10 to get 10% off. Click here to learn more!

 

Fast Greens

The greens at Bay Hill are known to get lightning fast at times. 

"Well, this event, by the weekend, the greens get really fast, so I guess it prepares you to putt on greens that are running at 13, 14 plus on the Stimpmeter" -Marc Leishman

"I love how fast and slopey the greens are... So I love that you have to think your way around the golf course and you have to manage it and put it in the right spots" -Patrick Rodgers

"That’s the way this golf course is meant to be played, that’s how Arnold always wanted it to be played, he always wanted it hard, fast, he wanted the greens dead by the time we played on Sunday and I think we’re going to have that." -Tiger Woods

"these Bermuda greens and when you’re on the high side there, putting down the hill, down grain, it’s, they’re definitely slick and you got to be careful every time you’re on the high side and that’s why it’s so important to leave your approaches on the lower side of the hole." -Henrik Stenson

Here are the top performers on courses with fast greens (12.5+ feet on the stimp), over the last two years: 

Rory McIlroy
Patrick Reed
Hideki Matsuyama
Viktor Hovland
Will Zalatoris
Jason Kokrak
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Bryson DeChambeau
Cameron Tringale
Jordan Spieth
Jason Day
Louis Oosthuizen
Lanto Griffin

We can also look at a golfer's performance versus their baseline to see who over-performs most. Here is that list: 

Matt Wallace
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Tyler McCumber
Jason Kokrak
Maverick McNealy
C.T. Pan
Jordan Spieth
Luke List
Cameron Percy
Brandt Snedeker
Cameron Tringale
Max Homa
Chris Kirk
Patrick Reed
Marc Leishman

Overlap List: names that show up on both lists include Patrick Reed, Jason Kokrak, Cameron Tringale, and Jordan Spieth

Spieth has a long track record of crushing it at Augusta National. When his game is clicking he thrives in the course-management department which is very helpful when playing courses with fast greens. He enters with no course history this week, though. 

FanDuel Focus 

Jason Kokrak ($9,800): IFor years Kokrak was found on many "best players without a win" lists but he no longer qualifies for those after winning in Las Vegas last fall. Before that, some of his close calls came at Bay Hill, arriving with five top 20s in eight API appearances. 

Matthew Fitzpatrick ($11,100): His price is rising fast so should we hang on for the ride or jump ship? Well, he qualifies for the performance on bermuda overlap list and was one spot away from also qualifying for the fast green overlap list. He checks a lot of boxes including the mental aspect, "I’m all for it like this. Like I would so much rather play it like this every week where it’s a battle and you got to go work hard and grind instead of wide open fairways, no wind and just, 65, you move down as well, you know." 

 

Good luck with your lineups this week and check back tomorrow for some more course-fit analysis. 

Josh Culp

Josh Culp joined NBC Sports Edge in 2014. The DFS enthusiast from Iowa State can be found on Twitter @futureoffantasy.