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Lamar Jackson
Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Fantasy Forecast

Week 11 Fantasy Football Forecast

by Hayden Winks
Updated On: November 25, 2019, 10:07 pm ET

PaceWeek11

 

Teams are listed in order of their Vegas projected team points.

Page 1: OAK, KC, SF, NO, CAR, DAL, BAL (plus bonus Lamar content)

Page 2: MIN, DET, LAC, NE, LAR, IND, BUF, HOU, ATL, TB

Page 3: PHI, JAX, WAS, CIN, NYJ, CHI, MIA, ARI, DEN

TNF: CLE, PIT

Byes: GB, NYG, SEA, TEN 

 

Eagles (20.75, +3.5) vs. NE

Update: Jordan Howard is out, so Miles Sanders will draw the start with Boston Scott and the recently signed Jay Ajayi backing him up. I like Sanders to catch 4-7 passes this week as the check down option. ... Alshon Jeffery is out, which probably hurts Zach Ertz. I'm expecting Stephon Gilmore to cover Ertz a lot. 

Forecast: Carson Wentz QB2, Miles Sanders RB2, Jay Ajayi RB4, Nelson Agholor WR4, Zach Ertz TE1, Dallas Goedert TE1/2

PHINE

Carson Wentz has underperformed in fantasy due to injuries to his skill position players, and it’s not getting better. Alshon Jeffery is questionable after missing practice this week and DeSean Jackson is on injured reserve. Against the league’s best defense, Wentz is purely a low-ceiling QB2. … Jordan Howard has an extremely difficult matchup, but the Eagles may be forced to give him 15-20 touches if Alshon is injured even if they are in a negative game script. Philly also just watched the Ravens find success against the Patriots on the ground, so there is some level of a blueprint even if Wentz isn’t the playmaker Lamar is. Howard is a volume-based RB2/3 with some touchdown equity. … Miles Sanders is also a candidate for meaningful touches. The rookie has at least three receptions in five-straight games, and the Patriots have funneled almost all receptions beneath within 5-10 yards of the line of scrimmage where Sanders does almost all of his damage. Sanders is a sneaky RB3 in PPR leagues but can’t be touched in non-PPR leagues. .... Update: If Howard is out, Sanders is a legit RB2 in all leagues.

PHIAY11

Alshon Jeffery is looking unlikely to play and shouldn’t be trusted even if he does play with an impossible matchup against CB Stefon Gilmore. … If Jeffery misses, the Eagles will have Nelson Agholor, Mack Hollins, Jordan Matthews, and other knuckleheads as their top receivers. We should obviously ignore them all given the opponent. … Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert will do a lot of the heavy lifting, but coach Bill Belichick obviously knows this. I’m expecting a lot of attention being spent on Ertz, who could even get some Gilmore coverage this week if Jeffery is out. Wentz will likely have to send Ertz 5-10 targets regardless, making him a TE1 with a wide range of outcomes. … Goedert is the sneaky good play as a TE1/2 for the reasons I just laid out above. The underutilized tight end should have the softest coverage of the group and runs most of his routes in the area the Patriots are willing to give up passes. I wouldn’t be surprised if Goedert caught five passes this week. 

NFLDefensesDensity

 

Jaguars (20.25, +3) @ IND

Forecast: Nick Foles QB2, Leonard Fournette RB1, D.J. Chark WR2, Dede Westbrook WR4, Chris Conley WR5

JAXIND

Gardner Minshew will take a backseat to Nick Foles this week. I’m not expecting many differences with the quarterback change for the offense in general, and Minshew’s fantasy lines are decent projections for Foles. With a 20.25-point team total against a top 17th percentile pass defense, Foles is a low-end QB2 in his debut from injury. … The Colts Defense has been a run funnel (see efficiency columns above) this season, and Leonard Fournette is very due for touchdowns:

JAXAY11

I don’t see any real reasons to move D.J. Chark up or down the rankings with Foles back at quarterback (see chart below). Chark should continue to see 5-10 targets per game with plenty of WR2-level air yards. For this week, Chark may be closer to the lower end of the WR2 spectrum with both teams expected to play slow and run-heavy football. … Dede Westbrook returned to practice this week and should slide in as a 5-8 target receiver. It’s probably best to throw out Westbrook’s splits with/without Foles due to sample size, making Westbrook a quality WR4. … Chris Conley offers more upside than Westbrook as the primary deep threat. Conley has had WR3-level usage while Westbrook was injured, but he should slide back into the 3-6 target range with Dede back healthy. Conley is an upside WR5. 

JaguarsQBs

 

Redskins (20.5, -2.5) vs. NYJ

Update: Paul Richardson is out.

Forecast: Dwayne Haskins QB2/3, Adrian Peterson RB4, Derrius Guice RB4, Terry McLaurin WR3

WASNYJ

Dwayne Haskins has the arm talent to be a franchise quarterback, but the Redskins don’t trust him to be a franchise quarterback. Even against a very beatable pass funneling defense, I’d expect Washington to rely on their rushing attack instead of letting Haskins rip 35+ pass attempts. Haskins is on the QB2/3. … Coach Bill Callahan said, “We've got a pretty good rotational system” for Adrian Peterson and Derrius Guice. My guess is both backs see 8-15 carries as a two-back committee with Chris Thompson (toe) still sidelined. The Redskins were barely able to make AP a flex back, so I’m not viewing either back as a flex now that there are two of them, especially against the Jets No. 2 run defense. 

WASAY11

Terry McLaurin’s fantasy value has plummeted, but the Redskins would be smart to get him going off the bye, especially with his college quarterback starting. There is talk that McLaurin will move around the formation now, which would be a great first step. McLaurin may be worth a dart throw in DFS tournaments and certainly is a season-long WR3 option with upside against the second-worst defense versus fantasy receivers. If McLaurin doesn’t do it this week, he may just be cancelled. … Trey Quinn and Paul Richardson are wide receivers on the Washington Redskins if you care. Neither have reached my “10 PPR Expected” threshold since Week 4.

 

Bengals (18.75, +11) @ OAK

Forecast: Ryan Finley QB2/3, Joe Mixon RB2, Auden Tate WR3/4, Tyler Boyd WR3/4, Alex Erickson (questionable) WR5, Tyler Eifert TE2

CINOAK

In Ryan Finley’s first NFL start, the Bengals became the first team since 1977 to run the ball 40+ times in a 36+ point loss. Cincy clearly doesn’t want to put the ball in Finley’s hands for better or worse. Even against Oakland, who is in the bottom 9th percentile against fantasy quarterbacks, Finley can’t be trusted beyond deep two-quarterback leagues. Volume, talent, and surrounding talent are all issues. … Joe Mixon may actually benefit from Andy Dalton’s benching. Mixon was averaging 12.6 carries with Dalton and then set a new season-high last week when he saw a whopping 30 carries. It’s possible that Mixon sees 15+ carries with Finley under center regardless of game script. Mixon absolutely needs that level of volume to be a fantasy starter because he’s averaging 3.3 yards per carry and hasn’t converted any of his seven inside-the-5 carries for touchdowns. Mixon is a volume-based low-end RB2 against the Raiders, who are in the bottom 32nd percentile against fantasy running backs. 

CINAY11

Tyler Boyd is Tyler Boyd. He projects for 8-14 PPR points in good matchups like this one as the primary check-down option for a check-down quarterback. He’s a flex option. … Auden Tate is more interesting to me. Tate has had more air yards than Tyler Boyd in four of his last five games and is a positive touchdown regression candidate since he only has one red-zone touchdown on 14 red-zone targets. The matchup against Oakland also sets up nicely for Tate because he is targeted deeper downfield and the Raiders are the worst defense at preventing 20+ yard pass plays. Tate is a sneaky flex play. … Alex Erickson is on the injury report right now. … Tyler Eifert had a nine-target game in Week 8 with Andy Dalton, but he’s been a touchdown-dependent TE2 otherwise. Eifert had four targets with Finley last week. The Raiders checking in as a bottom 6th percentile defense against fantasy tight ends gives Eifert a chance for a lucky score.

 

Jets (18, +2.5) @ WAS 

Update: Le'Veon Bell and Demaryius Thomas are questionable but seem likely to play.

Forecast: Sam Darnold QB2/3, Le’Veon Bell (questionable) RB1/2, Jamison Crowder WR4, Robby Anderson WR4, Demaryius Thomas (questionable) WR5, Ryan Griffin TE2

NYJWAS

Sam Darnold is averaging 226 yards, 1.2 touchdowns, and 1.8 interceptions in his five games since Mono. The Redskins have been awful as well, but I’m not trusting Darnold to expose them on the road -- he had 260/1/1 against the Dolphins two weeks ago. Darnold is barely a starter in two-quarterback leagues. … Le’Veon Bell is having a career-worst season in most efficiency categories behind a bad offensive line, but he has a big workload (15.9 carries and 4.9 receptions per game) and a good matchup this week. The Redskins are in the bottom 19th percentile against fantasy running backs, making Bell a buy-low RB1/2. 

NYJAY11

Since Darnold’s Week 6 return, here are the Jets’ receivers stat lines: Jamison Crowder (26-312-2 on 34 targets), Demaryius Thomas (20-270-0 on 30 targets), and Robby Anderson (13-22-1 on 29 targets). Crowder is the check-down option as a more consistent WR4. DT is not my flavor. And then we have Anderson, who is a positive regression candidate but one without a whole lot of volume to regress to. All four receivers are WR4s with Anderson holding the most theoretical upside as the highest aDOT receiver (14.6 since Darnold’s return). … Chris Herndon is out, so Ryan Griffin will continue being a touchdown-dependent TE2 on a bad team. 

 

Dolphins (17.25, +6.5) vs. BUF

Forecast: Ryan Fitzpatrick QB3, Kalen Ballage RB3, DeVante Parker WR3/4, Allen Hurns WR5, Mike Gesicki TE2

MIABUF

Ryan Fitzpatrick against a Bills Defense that is in the top 10th percentile against fantasy quarterbacks? No, thank you. … Kalen Ballage did his best crash-test dummy impression last week running into 20 brick walls on 20 carries for 43 meaningless yards while adding two yards on four receptions. Ballage has volume on his side and the matchup is pretty good (the Bills Defense is much weaker on the ground), but Ballage is merely a flex option and one with a low floor. 

MIAAY11

DeVante Parker predictably had awesome usage last week with Preston Williams out for the season. That should continue down the stretch, but he will face stud CB Tre’Davious White this week. Parker is a boom-or-bust flex. Don’t drop him if he busts this week, however. Better days are ahead. … Allen Hurns (5 targets last week), Albert Wilson (3), and Jakeem Grant (2) rotate in behind Parker. … Like Parker, Mike Gesicki has potential down the stretch as an upside player who is seeing more volume now. Gesicki is a zero-floor TE2 this week since the Bills have been the best defense against tight ends, but he could be a TE1/2 for the fantasy playoffs.

 

Cardinals (17, +10.5) @ SF

Update: 


 

Forecast: Kyler Murray QB1/2, Kenyan Drake RB2/3, David Johnson RB3, Christian Kirk WR2/3, Larry Fitzgerald WR4, Andy Isabella WR5

ARISF

Kyler Murray is fantasy’s QB5 right now despite being one of the worst red-zone passers this season, throwing a touchdown on just 15% of pass attempts (league average 24%). If he and Kliff can figure out how to win when the field shrinks, Murray is going to really start popping. Getting Christian Kirk back healthy and Andy Isabella on the field should help him create more big plays, too. This week will be a big test (see chart above), however. Murray had 241/2 with 37 rushing yards against San Francisco two weeks ago. He’s on the QB1/2 borderline. … David Johnson claimed he was ready to go for Week 10, but he was very clearly not healthy. DJ only saw five carries and one target while playing 29 offensive snaps. Meanwhile, Kenyan Drake had 10 carries and seven targets on 43 offensive snaps. In terms of floor, Drake is the better play, but DJ was completely left off the injury report in practice this week. I’m not sure if I buy it. The Cardinals could keep his workload down this week to give him the Week 12 bye to heal up for a stretch run. Hopefully Sunday news will help us out on our sit/starts, but I’m calling both Drake and DJ risky flex options this week. I do have more faith in Drake right now. 

ARIAY11

Christian Kirk set a new season-high in air yards last week now that the horizontal raid is being phased out for the vertical raid. Kirk has plenty of weekly upside in the fastest-paced offense as an emerging talent, but expectations should be realistic against San Francisco. Kirk has 2-8-0 on five targets when they played two weeks. Kirk is a WR2/3 this game but will be an upside WR2 from here on out. … Larry Fitzgerald has been under my “10 PPR Expected” threshold for four-straight weeks but was targeted eight times in last week’s shootout. Fitzgerald had 4-38-0 on four targets against the Niners last time, which puts him on the flex radar as a low-upside play. … Pharoh Cooper, KeeSean Johnson, and Andy Isabella are rotating in behind Kirk and Fitz. We should all be rooting for Isabella out of this group. He has caught 6-of-6 targets for 174 yards and one touchdown this season. His 29.0 yards per target is the most since at least 1992 (min. six targets lol). Isabella is certainly a player to watch with his snap counts ascending. 

 

Bears (16.75, +6.5) @ LAR

Forecast: Mitch Trubisky QB2/3, David Montgomery (questionable) RB2/3, Tarik Cohen RB4, Allen Robinson WR3/4, Taylor Gabriel WR5

CHILAR

Mitch Trubisky lucked into three touchdowns thanks to good field position and other factors last week, and it was against one of the worst defenses in the Lions anyways. Trubisky is definitely not it, especially on the road against a solid Rams Defense. … David Montgomery suffered some type of ankle injury in practice this week, which lowers his floor for Week 11. When healthy, Montgomery is a 15-25 touch back as the centerpiece of the offense. His touches have been awful, however, only averaging 3.6 yards per carry and 5.5 yards per target because he’s big and slow. Being big and slow has kinda helped near the goal-line where he’s converted 5-of-11 inside-the-five carries into touchdowns. All things considered, Montgomery is a volume-based RB2/3 with some touchdown equity despite a 16.75-point team total. 

CHIAY11

Unfortunately, Allen Robinson will continue being a boom-or-bust WR3 with Trubisky. He’s still good enough and is still seeing enough volume to have bigger weeks, but the floor is low. This week could be a floor week with CB Jalen Ramsey lining up across A-Rob. … Taylor Gabriel set a new season-high in air yards last week and may keep a decent workload if Trubisky avoids Ramsey. The Rams other corners have been top-15 corners this season according to PFF, however, so Gabriel’s matchup is still very tough. I wouldn’t start Trubisky’s No. 2 receiver on the road against an above-average secondary with a 16.75-point team total. 

 

Broncos (15, +10.5) @ MIN 

Forecast: Brandon Allen QB3, Phillip Lindsay RB3, Royce Freeman RB3, Courtland Sutton WR3, Noah Fant TE2

DENMIN

The Broncos are projected to score 15 points. Brandon Allen is not a recommended QB2 streamer. I’m hoping we see rookie Drew Lock soon. … Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman continue to split the workload, which can be okay in good matchups, but that’s not what we get in Week 11. The Vikings are in the top 13th percentile against fantasy running backs as well as run defense DVOA. With the low team total and low touch volume, both Lindsay and Freeman are low-floor flex options. 

DENAY11

Denver might be the narrowest pass-catching group in the NFL. It’s Courtland Sutton at receiver, and Noah Fant at tight end. That’s it. Sutton’s average depth of target is likely to be lower with Brandon Allen than Joe Flacco, making his ceiling lower than it was earlier in the season. Luckily the Vikings are in the bottom 16th percentile against fantasy receivers, so Sutton belongs in the WR3 range despite the laughable 15-point team total. … The bad has been bad (penalties, drops, and fumbles), but Noah Fant is showing his pass-catching upside in flashes. Fant is quietly on pace for the 25th-most receiving yards (533) among rookie tight ends in NFL history. He’s seeing 3-6 targets most weeks and could reach a slightly higher total down the stretch with Emmanuel long gone. As the No. 2 pass-catcher on the team, Fant offers TE2 upside.