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Zach Ertz
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Fantasy Forecast

Week 12 Fantasy Football Forecast

by Hayden Winks
Updated On: November 23, 2019, 2:49 pm ET

Pace Week 12

 

Teams are listed in order of their Vegas projected team points.

Page 1: CLE, NO, ATL, NE, PHI, BAL, OAK, SF, TB

Page 2: CHI, SEA, DET, PIT, TEN, LAR, NYJ, GB, BUF

Page 3: DAL, CAR, JAX, WAS, NYG, MIA, DEN, CIN

TNF: HOU, IND

Byes: ARI, KC, LAC, MIN

 

Bears (22.75, -6) vs. NYG

Forecast: Mitchell Trubisky QB2/3, David Montgomery RB2, Tarik Cohen RB3, Allen Robinson WR2/3, Taylor Gabriel WR5, Anthony Miller WR5

CHINYG

The Giants are a bottom 12th percentile defense against the pass, but Mitchell Trubisky is Mitchell Trubisky. Not only is he terrible, but he’s also playing with an “injury” that got him benched last week. … David Montgomery is averaging 18 carries over his last four contests with the Bears doing all they can to hide the passing offense. Montgomery just hasn’t done anything with his touches, only averaging 3.5 yards per carry and 5.6 yards per target. It’s safe to project 15-25 touches for Montgomery, and we could even project slightly better touchdown equity with the Bears (somehow) projected for 23 points. I’m fine with Montgomery as an RB2. … Tarik Cohen averages 5.5 receptions in losses and just 2.5 receptions in wins. The Bears are 6-point favorites. 

CHIAY12

Allen Robinson has had WR2/3-level usage in all non-Jalen Ramsey games this season. A-Rob is a bounceback candidate against the 31st ranked defense against fantasy receivers. Robinson still has a low floor with Trubisky, but he belongs in the WR2/3 discussion and could even reach a mini-ceiling. … Taylor Gabriel saw increased usage last week with A-Rob getting shadowed, but he’ll likely slide back into his 3-6 target role this week as a distant second pass-game option. Gabriel is merely a WR5 in a bad offense. … I can copy/paste the last two sentences for Anthony Miller.

 

Seahawks (23.5, +2) @ PHI

Update: Tyler Lockett was left off the final injury report and will play Week 12. ... Ed Dickson was also placed on injured reserve, so Hollister is a nice TE2 option with touchdown equity.

Forecast: Russell Wilson QB1, Chris Carson RB1, Tyler Lockett WR1/2, DK Metcalf WR3, Josh Gordon WR5, Jacob Hollister TE2

SEAPHI

I like the SEA/PHI over this week because both teams are true pass funnels on defense. Philly has allowed 36 pass attempts and 23 rush attempts per game, which is the seventh-largest discrepancy in the NFL. Russell Wilson doesn’t need a great situation to go off, but it certainly doesn’t hurt. The only thing giving me pause is Seattle’s 23-point team total, which seems low to me, but does account for the early east coast kickoff. That’s not enough to move Wilson out of the upside QB1 category. In fact, I’ll try to be overweight on Wilson in DFS tournaments. … Chris Carson is averaging 20.0 carries and 2.7 receptions per game as a locked-in RB1. The matchup is admittingly tough with travel, time of game, and personnel (Philly is top 20th percentile in run defense DVOA) working against Carson but betting on volume makes him a sneaky DFS tournament option with touchdown equity. 

SEAAY12

Tyler Lockett has had the most inconsistent target volume week to week this season and will be playing through a bone bruise this week, assuming he’s cleared. The matchup, of course, is sweet with the Eagles checking in as a bottom 12th percentile defense against fantasy receivers. Lockett offers WR1/2 upside in a game that could turn into a passing shootout with both teams having pass-funneling defenses. … DK Metcalf has had WR2/3 usage in three of the last four games and remains a positive touchdown regression candidate given his red-zone usage. Metcalf, like always, has a massive size advantage on the Eagles’ corners, who have played better recently but are still very beatable. Metcalf is an upside WR3 and deserves to be in Wilson-led DFS tournament stacks. … Josh Gordon played 27 snaps last week, a number that is likely to increase with more time in the building. Gordon is still a wait-and-see for me, although I can’t rule out a long touchdown this week. … Jacob Hollister has run 37 and 34 routes over the last two weeks, but the Seahawks will be getting Ed Dickson back soon and Gordon’s presence should also dip into Hollister’s target share. With that said, Hollister is still a viable TE2 streamer with touchdown equity attached to Wilson. 

 

Lions (22, -3.5) @ WAS

Forecast: Jeff Driskel QB2, Bo Scarbrough RB2/3, Kenny Golladay WR2/3, Marvin Jones WR3/4, Danny Amendola WR5, T.J. Hockenson TE2

DETWAS

I liked Josh Norris calling Jeff Driskel “82% Josh Allen”. Driskel is inaccurate at times but makes it up with his 37 and 51 rushing yards in his two starts. The Redskins are obviously a cupcake draw through the air and even allowed 51 rushing yards to Dak Prescott, the only rushing quarterback they’ve faced. Driskel is an underrated QB2. … Bo Scarbrough was promoted from the practice squad last Saturday and ended up leading the backfield in carries (14) and offensive snaps (31). He still split reps with Ty Johnson (18 snaps) and J.D. McKissic (14), but Scarbrough should be viewed as the 1A in this three-back committee after picking up 55 yards and one score in Week 11. Helping his outlook this week is the matchup -- the Redskins are one of three defenses who have allowed more rush attempts (32.3) than pass attempts (31.5) per game this season. Scarbrough is a flex play. The other Lions backs can be ignored in fantasy.

DETAY12

Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones have taken sizable hits in their usage with Driskel (see air yards chart above), but they are still talented enough to make plays, especially with Driskel playing at a serviceable level. Both have good matchups as well, particularly Jones who has a big speed advantage over CB Josh Norman, who has allowed the most touchdowns (7) in coverage this season. Golladay is a lower-ceiling WR2/3 with Jones operating as a nice flex play. … Danny Amendola is also in the mix, seeing 5-8 targets in his last four games. As noted by Ian Hartitz, Amendola faces PFF’s No. 122 corner (Fabian Moreau). He is a viable WR5 for deep leagues. … T.J. Hockenson is on pace for a top-50 receiving season by a rookie tight end, but that’s only equated to 2.6 receptions per game as a touchdown-dependent TE2.

 

Steelers (22.25, -6.5) @ CIN

Update: James Conner (shoulder) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (concussion) won't play. Diontae Johnson (concussion) will play. I've moved Johnson and Washington into the WR3/4 discussion. McDonald has a higher floor now, too.

Forecast: Mason Rudolph QB2/3, Jaylen Samuels RB2/3, Trey Edmunds RB3, Diontae Johnson WR3/4, James Washington WR3/4, Vance McDonald TE1/2

PITCIN

The Bengals Defense is the biggest run funnel, partly because they are always losing and partly because they suck stopping the run (bottom 25th percentile in rush defense DVOA). Mason Rudolph is also awful, so the Steelers would be smart to get the rushing attack going. Rudolph has a chance to return low-end QB2 value with Pittsburgh projected for __ points, but we are obviously not touching Rudolph, especially with all of the offensive injuries, as more than a two-quarterback league streamer. … Cincy has allowed the most rush attempts per game (34) this season, so there should be 25-30 carries up for grabs in the Steelers backfield. The tricky part is projecting who will get them with James Conner (shoulder) hurt and Jaylen Samuels ineffective (2.6 YPC) on the ground this season. It’s possible Trey Edmunds operates as the primary runner with Samuels stepping into his more natural pass-catching role. If Conner is out, then Samuels is on the RB2/3 borderline in PPR leagues while Edmunds checks in as a touchdown-dependent RB3. 

PITAY12

JuJu Smith-Schuster (concussion, knee) is not expected to play, but Diontae Johnson was able to practice in full despite being concussed on TNF. JuJu leaves behind 17% targets and 24% air yards, so Johnson and James Washington belong in WR3/4 discussions, even with Rudolph at quarterback. The Bengals are 31st in both pass defense DVOA and at preventing 20+ yard pass plays this season. … Vance McDonald will also get a slight bump in usage projections and is firmly on the TE1/2 borderline this week. McDonald has compiled 25 targets in his last five games as a low aDOT (6.6) check-down option. His upside is limited but he arguably has a slightly higher floor than other streaming-level tight ends.

 

Titans (22.5, -3.5) vs. JAX

Update: Delanie Walker is officially doubtful.

Forecast: Ryan Tannehill QB2, Derrick Henry RB1/2, A.J. Brown WR5, Corey Davis WR5, Delanie Walker (doubtful) TE2, Jonnu Smith TE2

TENJAX

In terms of Next Gen Stat’s completion percentage over expected metric, no quarterback has improved as a passer more than Ryan Tannehill. His accuracy has been great, but passing volume (30 attempts per game) is a major problem for his fantasy outlook, especially against a slow-paced Jaguars team. The Titans should also focus on their rushing attack to take advantage of Jacksonville’s run-funneling defense (see efficiency above). Tannehill is a low-end QB2. … Derrick Henry is averaging 18.7 carries and 83 rushing yards per game, but he has a good chance to beat those averages this week. The Jaguars are 30th in run defense DVOA and in the bottom 25th percentile against fantasy running backs. As 3-point favorites, Henry offers upside as an RB1/2. 

TENAY12

Corey Davis (hip) returned to practice and will slide back into his 4-7 target role as a low-upside WR5. The Jaguars aren’t a defense to fear on a per play defense, but volume is concerning with both teams operating run-heavy offenses. … Davis’ return should bring A.J. Brown’s air yards back to Week 1-8 levels, especially given the matchup. Brown is one of my favorite receiver prospects and is averaging 9.9 yards per target, but he can’t be trusted in season-long leagues with volume working against him. … Delanie Walker returned to practice, which will put an end to the Jonnu Smith streaming experiment. Prior to his injury, Walker was seeing inconsistent usage as a TE1/2, but it’s likely that Smith will continue seeing reps after showing promise in recent weeks. Walker is a risky TE2 play in his return.

 

Rams (21.75, +3) vs. BAL

Forecast: Jared Goff QB2/3, Todd Gurley RB2, Cooper Kupp WR2, Robert Woods (questionable) WR3/4, Brandin Cooks WR3/4, Gerald Everett (questionable) TE1/2

LARBAL

Jared Goff is the worst starting quarterback in Next Gen Stats’ completion percentage over expected metric this season. It’s been two weeks since his last passing touchdown, which has brought his season average down to 1.1 touchdowns per game. Goff now welcomes an ascending Baltimore secondary that has recently held the Seahawks, Patriots, and Texans to 14.3 points per game. The Rams do get Brandin Cooks back, which will help his nonexistent deep passing, but it’s impossible to trust Goff, even at home, as more than a boom-or-bust QB2/3. … Todd Gurley broke a previous season-high (18) with 25 carries in Week 11. The usage increase lines up with offseason reports that hinted at a late-season resurgence for Gurley, so I think 15-25 touches per game down the stretch is certainly in range. Gurley’s Week 12 matchup is difficult, however, with the Baltimore defense 29th in rush attempts allowed per game (21). The overpaid back will need to find the end zone (just seven inside-the-five carries so far) or beat his 2.0 reception average to reach a ceiling. Gurley is a mid-range RB2. … Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown are low-level handcuffs.

LARAY12

Robert Woods’ (personal) status is still up in the air, but it looks like Brandin Cooks (concussion) will be returning for Monday Night Football. When healthy, Cooks was extremely up and down with his usage, as are the other Rams’ pass-catchers. With Goff struggling to throw deep, Cooks is a low-floor WR3/4 against a surging defense. … If Robert Woods plays, he’ll be in the boom-or-bust WR3 mix after seeing 11 targets in Week 10 but is eternally at risk of being Goff’d. … Cooper Kupp was thought of as a high-floor receiver at the beginning of the season, but that’s obviously no longer the case, especially if Cooks and Woods are in the lineup. The good news for Kupp is the Rams sitting as 3-point dogs. The slot receiver has been one of the most game-script dependent receivers this season, which makes sense with the Rams looking to hand the ball off with leads. Kupp is a boom-or-bust WR2. … Gerald Everett has had massive workloads but will lose target share with Cooks back. Everett also has a wrist injury and tough matchup -- the Ravens are in the top 13th percentile against fantasy tight ends -- to play through this week. Everett will be a TE1/2 if he shows he is healthy.

 

Jets (21.75, +3) vs. OAK

Forecast: Sam Darnold QB2, Le’Veon Bell RB1/2, Jamison Crowder WR3/4, Robby Anderson WR5, Demaryius Thomas WR5, Ryan Griffin TE2

NYJOAK

Sam Darnold was able to hit wide-open receivers against the Redskins last week (4 TDs), but I’m not putting too much weight into that game. Darnold has been wildly inconsistent and has been a low-ceiling quarterback outside of last week. The Raiders’ bottom 30th percentile pass defense gives him a shot as a serviceable QB2 streamer, but I’m not going to get carried away with the Jets, especially with the Raiders pass-rush improving. … Le’Veon Bell has 25, 22, and 20 touches in his last three games and is a candidate for another 18-25 touches against a bottom 32nd percentile run defense. Bell has underrated upside as a touch hog in a good matchup. I like Bell as an RB1/2.

NYJAY12

Jamison Crowder fits better with Darnold than Robby Anderson and Demaryius Thomas, and we’ve seen that play out with Crowder’s team-high targets in most weeks. If the Raiders pass rush puts some pressure on the Jets’ league-worst offensive line, Crowder could see 6-10 underneath targets as a WR3/4. … Robby Anderson is no longer playable unless you are absolutely desperate for a big play. Anderson has less than 50 yards in four-straight games with WR5-level air yards. … Demaryius Thomas is somewhere in between Crowder and Anderson. The veteran has been between 5-9 targets this season but has struggled to find any sort of ceiling coming off his injury. Thomas is a usable WR5. … Ryan Griffin’s recent production has been quite lucky and against bad defenses, but he’s at least involved in the offense (3-6 target projection) and gets another bad defense this week. The Raiders are 30th against fantasy tight ends, making Griffin a TE2 with some upside. 

 

Packers (22.25, +3) @ SF

Forecast: Aaron Rodgers QB2, Aaron Jones RB1/2, Jamaal Williams RB3, Davante Adams WR1/2, Allen Lazard WR5, Jimmy Graham TE2

GBSF

Aaron Rodgers is the QB9 despite playing all games this season. Removing Rodgers’ outlier 5-touchdown game against a terrible Raiders secondary makes his season look a lot worse, too. Traveling into San Francisco to play against the No. 2 defense against fantasy quarterbacks isn’t a time to bet on Rodgers as a low-end QB1. There are streamers I like more than Rodgers. … I expect Green Bay to rely on their running backs this week to take advantage of the Niners’ run-funneling defense (see efficiency above). That’s good news for rushing touchdown leader Aaron Jones, who is averaging 13.5 carries and 3.5 receptions per game. The Packers’ 22.25-point team total does make this a tough matchup to reach a ceiling, but Jones will be an RB1/2 based on his 15+ touch projection. … Jamaal Williams has had an unsustainable touchdown pace and is only averaging 7.2 carries and 2.8 receptions per game. This isn’t the game to get cute with.

GBAY12

Davante Adams has managed to play through his toe injury, seeing 11 and 10 targets to go along with elite air yards in his last two games. Adams is due for positive touchdown regression (537 yards and 0 touchdowns), which keeps him in the WR1/2 mix despite facing a top 20th percentile defense against fantasy receivers. Adams has also historically been heavily targeted whenever the Packers trail and Green Bay is 3-point dogs this week. … Allen Lazard is averaging five targets and flex-level air yards in his two games with Adams back. Lazard will need a lucky touchdown to pay off a flex start with volume concerns (20 and 21 routes run in the last two weeks). … I’m fading Geronimo Allison and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. … Jimmy Graham remains a low-aDOT, touchdown-dependent TE2, who will now have to deal with the No. 2 defense against fantasy tight ends. 

 

Bills (20.75, -4) vs. DEN

Forecast: Josh Allen QB2, Devin Singletary RB2, Frank Gore RB4, John Brown WR3, Cole Beasley WR5, Dawson Knox TE2

BUFDEN

Josh Allen has been running well in recent weeks, which gives Allen a reasonable QB2 floor. This week, Allen will have a tough time hitting a ceiling with a top 7th percentile defense against fantasy quarterbacks in town. Not only is the defense talented and well-coached, but it also matches up well against the Bills with an elite corner covering a largely one-receiver offense. Allen is mid-range QB2 with an average 20.75-point team total. ... Last week, Devin Singletary set a new season-high in snaps (52) and had more touches than Frank Gore, especially before Gore saw three garbage-time carries to close out the game. Singletary isn't headed for a bellcow role but 12-17 touches is definitely in range. As four-point home favorites, Singletary has low-end RB2 in an ascending role. ... Frank Gore can be dropped after playing just 19 snaps last week.

BUFAY12

John Brown has established a high floor with high-end usage and finally showed his ceiling last week. Unfortunately, Brown's floor will be tested this week against elite CB Chris Harris. The Broncos also limit opposing teams in passing volume with a run-heavy offense, so Brown is a lot more boom-or-bust this week than he has been all season. I've downgraded Brown to the WR3 mix despite a great Week 11. ... Cole Beasley gets the easier matchup but his low aDOT and 4-7 targets don't get me fired up. Beasley's best yardage game of the year has been 83. He's a low-ceiling WR4. ... Rookie Dawson Knox is an unreliable TE2 in an offense that still is using Tyler Kroft and pass-blocker Lee Smith. Last week, Knox only ran 24 routes and was targeted three times.