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Fantasy Usage Model

Expected PPR Points: A 2020 Recap

by Hayden Winks
Updated On: December 30, 2020, 1:50 pm ET

"The Fantasy Usage Model" was a new project at Rotoworld this season that converted targets, air yards, carries, red zone touches, and other variables into one number -- Expected PPR Points. This metric is how many fantasy points the average player in the average offense would score with that opportunity. I hate to brag, but it did very well in 2020. My expected PPR points model predicted future PPR points far better than actual PPR points did at every position. Because it did well, I figured it's worth recapping the entire 2020 season.

Like always, I'm definitely on team "per game numbers" rather than "total numbers" when looking back at previous seasons. Some players miss time due to random events, and I don't want to knock them down rankings just because they didn't play all 16 games. To take that theory up a notch, I removed Week 17, games when players left early, and games played with Kendall Hinton at quarterback. This is as close as how each player actually did in normal circumstances, so I'll be referencing this page often for my 2021 offseason research. I hope you do as well. 


PPR Points Over Expected Per Game - WRs

To qualify, a receiver had to play in six healthy games and average at least 5.0 expected PPR points per game. There were 105 qualifiers.

PlayerPPRExpected PPRPPR Over Expected
GB Davante Adams28.1 (WR1)21.4 (WR1)+6.7 (WR1)
KC Tyreek Hill21.9 (WR2)16.3 (WR8)+5.6 (WR3)
ATL Julio Jones21.4 (WR3)16.6 (WR7)+4.8 (WR4)
BUF Stefon Diggs20.9 (WR4)17.7 (WR5)+3.3 (WR10)
ATL Calvin Ridley20.1 (WR5)17.8 (WR4)+2.3 (WR15)
LAC Keenan Allen19.5 (WR6)19.2 (WR2)+0.3 (WR63)
ARI DeAndre Hopkins19.0 (WR7)16.3 (WR9)+2.7 (WR12)
HOU Will Fuller18.9 (WR8)12.8 (WR27)+6.1 (WR2)
SEA DK Metcalf17.9 (WR9)14.2 (WR13)+3.7 (WR9)
PIT Diontae Johnson17.5 (WR10)18.1 (WR3)-0.6 (WR85)
MIN Adam Thielen17.3 (WR11)13.6 (WR19)+3.8 (WR6)
CHI Allen Robinson17.1 (WR12)16.7 (WR6)+0.4 (WR55)
TEN A.J. Brown16.8 (WR13)12.4 (WR34)+4.4 (WR5)
MIN Justin Jefferson16.5 (WR14)12.8 (WR28)+3.8 (WR7)
TB Mike Evans16.1 (WR15)13.2 (WR23)+2.9 (WR11)
LA Robert Woods16.0 (WR16)14.0 (WR15)+1.9 (WR19)
SEA Tyler Lockett15.5 (WR17)13.4 (WR21)+2.1 (WR17)
SF Brandon Aiyuk15.2 (WR18)14.9 (WR11)+0.3 (WR64)
DAL Amari Cooper15.0 (WR19)13.7 (WR18)+1.4 (WR28)
WAS Terry McLaurin14.9 (WR20)15.1 (WR10)-0.2 (WR75)
TB Chris Godwin14.6 (WR21)12.2 (WR38)+2.4 (WR13)
CIN Tyler Boyd14.6 (WR22)14.6 (WR12)+0.0 (WR68)
CAR Robby Anderson14.5 (WR23)14.1 (WR14)+0.3 (WR61)
NYJ Jamison Crowder14.5 (WR24)12.5 (WR30)+2.0 (WR18)
PIT JuJu Smith-Schuster14.4 (WR25)13.4 (WR22)+1.0 (WR39)
CLE Odell Beckham14.4 (WR26)13.7 (WR17)+0.7 (WR45)
TEN Corey Davis14.2 (WR27)10.5 (WR53)+3.7 (WR8)
CIN Tee Higgins14.0 (WR28)13.1 (WR24)+1.0 (WR40)
CAR D.J. Moore14.0 (WR29)13.0 (WR25)+1.0 (WR41)
LA Cooper Kupp14.0 (WR30)13.5 (WR20)+0.4 (WR56)
CAR Curtis Samuel13.8 (WR31)12.5 (WR32)+1.4 (WR30)
HOU Brandin Cooks13.7 (WR32)12.3 (WR36)+1.4 (WR26)
DAL CeeDee Lamb13.5 (WR33)12.1 (WR39)+1.3 (WR32)
BUF Cole Beasley13.4 (WR34)11.8 (WR44)+1.6 (WR23)
PIT Chase Claypool13.0 (WR35)12.3 (WR35)+0.7 (WR43)
DET Marvin Jones12.7 (WR36)12.1 (WR41)+0.6 (WR46)
MIA DeVante Parker12.3 (WR37)13.0 (WR26)-0.7 (WR88)
NYG Sterling Shepard12.2 (WR38)12.8 (WR29)-0.5 (WR83)
NO Michael Thomas12.0 (WR39)14.0 (WR16)-2.0 (WR100)
LV Nelson Agholor11.9 (WR40)9.7 (WR58)+2.3 (WR16)
DEN Tim Patrick11.9 (WR41)10.0 (WR56)+1.9 (WR20)
JAX D.J. Chark11.8 (WR42)12.5 (WR31)-0.7 (WR87)
CLE Jarvis Landry11.8 (WR43)12.1 (WR40)-0.3 (WR79)
TB Antonio Brown11.5 (WR44)11.0 (WR49)+0.5 (WR50)
BUF John Brown11.4 (WR45)11.5 (WR47)-0.1 (WR73)
IND T.Y. Hilton11.4 (WR46)10.8 (WR50)+0.5 (WR49)
LAC Mike Williams11.1 (WR47)12.2 (WR37)-1.1 (WR91)
JAX Laviska Shenault11.1 (WR48)10.0 (WR55)+1.0 (WR38)
NO Emmanuel Sanders11.0 (WR49)9.7 (WR57)+1.4 (WR29)
DAL Michael Gallup11.0 (WR50)11.5 (WR46)-0.5 (WR81)
BAL Marquise Brown10.8 (WR51)10.7 (WR52)+0.1 (WR67)
ARI Christian Kirk10.5 (WR52)10.3 (WR54)+0.1 (WR66)
GB Allen Lazard10.5 (WR53)8.1 (WR78)+2.4 (WR14)
ATL Russell Gage10.4 (WR54)11.9 (WR43)-1.5 (WR97)
HOU Randall Cobb10.2 (WR55)9.1 (WR65)+1.1 (WR37)
KC Sammy Watkins9.7 (WR56)11.3 (WR48)-1.6 (WR98)
TEN Adam Humphries9.6 (WR57)9.2 (WR63)+0.4 (WR58)
JAX Keelan Cole9.6 (WR58)9.2 (WR64)+0.4 (WR59)
NYG Darius Slayton9.5 (WR59)10.8 (WR51)-1.3 (WR94)
PHI Travis Fulgham9.5 (WR60)9.4 (WR61)+0.0 (WR69)
DEN Jerry Jeudy9.3 (WR61)12.4 (WR33)-3.1 (WR103)
NE Jakobi Meyers9.3 (WR62)9.5 (WR60)-0.2 (WR76)
NE Julian Edelman9.1 (WR63)11.6 (WR45)-2.5 (WR102)
LV Hunter Renfrow9.1 (WR64)8.0 (WR79)+1.1 (WR36)
MIA Preston Williams8.9 (WR65)8.4 (WR75)+0.5 (WR53)
IND Zach Pascal8.7 (WR66)8.5 (WR73)+0.2 (WR65)
IND Michael Pittman8.7 (WR67)9.4 (WR62)-0.7 (WR89)
CHI Darnell Mooney8.7 (WR68)9.6 (WR59)-1.0 (WR90)
PHI Greg Ward8.6 (WR69)8.2 (WR77)+0.4 (WR57)
NYJ Breshad Perriman8.5 (WR70)8.6 (WR72)-0.1 (WR74)
SF Richie James8.4 (WR71)7.0 (WR85)+1.4 (WR27)
DEN KJ Hamler8.3 (WR72)8.7 (WR70)-0.4 (WR80)
SF Kendrick Bourne8.2 (WR73)7.9 (WR80)+0.3 (WR62)
GB Marquez Valdes-Scantling8.1 (WR74)6.8 (WR86)+1.3 (WR33)
CLE Rashard Higgins8.1 (WR75)6.3 (WR93)+1.8 (WR22)
LA Josh Reynolds8.1 (WR76)8.6 (WR71)-0.5 (WR82)
DET Danny Amendola8.1 (WR77)8.4 (WR76)-0.3 (WR78)
KC Mecole Hardman8.0 (WR78)6.5 (WR90)+1.5 (WR25)
CIN A.J. Green8.0 (WR79)11.9 (WR42)-4.0 (WR105)
SEA David Moore7.9 (WR80)6.0 (WR96)+1.8 (WR21)
BUF Gabriel Davis7.9 (WR81)7.4 (WR82)+0.5 (WR52)
PHI Jalen Reagor7.8 (WR82)9.1 (WR66)-1.3 (WR95)
ARI Larry Fitzgerald7.8 (WR83)8.9 (WR68)-1.2 (WR93)
CHI Anthony Miller7.7 (WR84)8.9 (WR69)-1.2 (WR92)
NE Damiere Byrd7.6 (WR85)7.7 (WR81)-0.1 (WR72)
NYJ Braxton Berrios7.6 (WR86)7.1 (WR84)+0.5 (WR51)
NO Tre'Quan Smith7.4 (WR87)6.1 (WR95)+1.3 (WR34)
NYG Golden Tate7.3 (WR88)7.3 (WR83)+0.0 (WR70)
LV Henry Ruggs7.3 (WR89)5.9 (WR97)+1.3 (WR31)
BAL Willie Snead7.2 (WR90)6.7 (WR88)+0.5 (WR48)
NYJ Denzel Mims7.0 (WR91)9.0 (WR67)-1.9 (WR99)
WAS Cam Sims7.0 (WR92)6.6 (WR89)+0.3 (WR60)
HOU Keke Coutee6.9 (WR93)5.4 (WR103)+1.5 (WR24)
TB Scotty Miller6.7 (WR94)5.5 (WR101)+1.2 (WR35)
PIT James Washington6.6 (WR95)6.2 (WR94)+0.4 (WR54)
KC Demarcus Robinson6.5 (WR96)5.8 (WR99)+0.7 (WR44)
LAC Jalen Guyton6.5 (WR97)5.7 (WR100)+0.8 (WR42)
NE N'Keal Harry6.0 (WR98)8.4 (WR74)-2.4 (WR101)
JAX Chris Conley6.0 (WR99)6.5 (WR91)-0.5 (WR84)
MIA Jakeem Grant5.8 (WR100)6.4 (WR92)-0.6 (WR86)
NO Deonte Harris5.5 (WR101)5.0 (WR105)+0.6 (WR47)
NE Isaiah Ford5.4 (WR102)6.8 (WR87)-1.4 (WR96)
WAS Steven Sims5.3 (WR103)5.2 (WR104)+0.0 (WR71)
DEN DaeSean Hamilton5.0 (WR104)5.4 (WR102)-0.3 (WR77)
SF Trent Taylor2.3 (WR105)5.9 (WR98)-3.5 (WR104)

 

The top 10 receivers in expected PPR points over expected per game: 

GB Davante Adams, HOU Will Fuller, KC Tyreek Hill, ATL Julio Jones, TEN A.J. Brown, MIN Adam Thielen, MIN Justin Jefferson, TEN Corey Davis, SEA DK Metcalf, and BUF Stefon Diggs.

 

The bottom 10 receivers in expected PPR points over expected per game: 

CIN A.J. Green, SF Trent Taylor, DEN Jerry Jeudy, NE Julian Edelman, NE N'Keal Harry, NO Michael Thomas, NYJ Denzel Mims, KC Sammy Watkins, ATL Russell Gage, and MIA Isaiah Ford.

 


PPR Points Over Expected Per Game - RBs

To qualify, a running back had to play in six healthy games and average at least 5.0 expected PPR points per game. There were 74 qualifiers.

PlayerPPRExpected PPRPPR Over Expected
NO Alvin Kamara25.2 (RB1)21.0 (RB1)+4.1 (RB2)
MIN Dalvin Cook24.1 (RB2)20.9 (RB2)+3.2 (RB3)
TEN Derrick Henry19.9 (RB3)17.5 (RB9)+2.3 (RB5)
CLE Nick Chubb18.8 (RB4)14.2 (RB22)+4.7 (RB1)
GB Aaron Jones18.6 (RB5)17.4 (RB10)+1.2 (RB9)
LAC Austin Ekeler18.2 (RB6)19.2 (RB4)-1.0 (RB49)
JAX James Robinson17.9 (RB7)16.5 (RB12)+1.4 (RB7)
SEA Chris Carson17.2 (RB8)14.7 (RB18)+2.6 (RB4)
CHI David Montgomery16.9 (RB9)17.8 (RB8)-0.9 (RB48)
CIN Joe Mixon16.8 (RB10)19.2 (RB6)-2.4 (RB66)
MIA Myles Gaskin16.7 (RB11)19.3 (RB3)-2.6 (RB69)
WAS Antonio Gibson16.3 (RB12)14.6 (RB19)+1.7 (RB6)
LV Josh Jacobs15.9 (RB13)19.1 (RB7)-3.2 (RB72)
HOU David Johnson15.9 (RB14)16.1 (RB15)-0.2 (RB26)
DAL Ezekiel Elliott15.5 (RB15)19.2 (RB5)-3.7 (RB73)
IND Jonathan Taylor15.5 (RB16)14.8 (RB17)+0.7 (RB15)
CAR Mike Davis14.9 (RB17)16.8 (RB11)-1.9 (RB63)
DET D'Andre Swift14.8 (RB18)13.6 (RB26)+1.2 (RB10)
PHI Miles Sanders14.7 (RB19)15.3 (RB16)-0.6 (RB38)
CLE Kareem Hunt14.2 (RB20)14.2 (RB21)+0.0 (RB21)
DEN Melvin Gordon14.0 (RB21)13.1 (RB28)+0.9 (RB13)
TB Ronald Jones13.6 (RB22)14.3 (RB20)-0.7 (RB40)
KC Clyde Edwards-Helaire13.5 (RB23)16.2 (RB14)-2.7 (RB70)
ARI Kenyan Drake13.3 (RB24)16.4 (RB13)-3.1 (RB71)
PIT James Conner12.8 (RB25)14.1 (RB23)-1.3 (RB53)
SF Raheem Mostert12.7 (RB26)11.8 (RB31)+0.9 (RB12)
WAS J.D. McKissic12.4 (RB27)14.1 (RB24)-1.7 (RB61)
SF Jeff Wilson12.3 (RB28)11.1 (RB35)+1.2 (RB8)
IND Nyheim Hines12.0 (RB29)12.4 (RB30)-0.4 (RB32)
ATL Todd Gurley11.9 (RB30)13.4 (RB27)-1.5 (RB58)
NE Rex Burkhead11.6 (RB31)10.5 (RB37)+1.1 (RB11)
TB Leonard Fournette11.6 (RB32)12.7 (RB29)-1.2 (RB51)
ARI Chase Edmonds10.9 (RB33)11.5 (RB34)-0.6 (RB35)
CIN Giovani Bernard10.6 (RB34)11.7 (RB32)-1.1 (RB50)
HOU Duke Johnson9.8 (RB35)10.1 (RB38)-0.4 (RB30)
BAL J.K. Dobbins9.8 (RB36)9.2 (RB42)+0.5 (RB16)
GB Jamaal Williams9.7 (RB37)10.9 (RB36)-1.2 (RB52)
LAC Kalen Ballage9.6 (RB38)13.9 (RB25)-4.3 (RB74)
BUF Devin Singletary9.6 (RB39)11.6 (RB33)-2.0 (RB64)
NE Damien Harris9.1 (RB40)9.4 (RB41)-0.3 (RB29)
NO Latavius Murray9.1 (RB41)8.6 (RB47)+0.5 (RB17)
NYG Wayne Gallman9.1 (RB42)9.2 (RB43)-0.1 (RB24)
LA Darrell Henderson8.8 (RB43)9.4 (RB40)-0.6 (RB37)
SEA Carlos Hyde8.5 (RB44)8.4 (RB49)+0.1 (RB19)
SF Jerick McKinnon8.3 (RB45)8.5 (RB48)-0.2 (RB27)
BUF Zack Moss8.2 (RB46)9.1 (RB45)-0.9 (RB46)
LA Cam Akers8.2 (RB47)9.1 (RB44)-0.9 (RB47)
BAL Gus Edwards8.1 (RB48)8.1 (RB51)+0.1 (RB20)
NE James White8.0 (RB49)8.0 (RB52)-0.1 (RB25)
DAL Tony Pollard7.7 (RB50)7.7 (RB56)+0.0 (RB22)
DET Adrian Peterson7.5 (RB51)9.0 (RB46)-1.5 (RB59)
LAC Justin Jackson7.4 (RB52)7.9 (RB54)-0.5 (RB34)
NYJ Frank Gore7.3 (RB53)9.9 (RB39)-2.6 (RB68)
LA Malcolm Brown7.2 (RB54)7.9 (RB55)-0.7 (RB39)
CIN Samaje Perine6.7 (RB55)7.0 (RB59)-0.3 (RB28)
NE Sony Michel6.6 (RB56)5.7 (RB67)+0.9 (RB14)
DEN Phillip Lindsay6.4 (RB57)7.9 (RB53)-1.5 (RB60)
JAX Chris Thompson6.1 (RB58)5.8 (RB66)+0.3 (RB18)
KC Le'Veon Bell5.9 (RB59)8.1 (RB50)-2.2 (RB65)
NYJ Ty Johnson5.9 (RB60)6.5 (RB60)-0.6 (RB36)
PHI Boston Scott5.7 (RB61)6.1 (RB62)-0.4 (RB31)
LAC Joshua Kelley5.7 (RB62)7.1 (RB58)-1.4 (RB55)
LV Devontae Booker5.6 (RB63)5.6 (RB69)+0.0 (RB23)
NYJ La'Mical Perine5.4 (RB64)6.2 (RB61)-0.9 (RB45)
ATL Brian Hill5.4 (RB65)5.9 (RB65)-0.5 (RB33)
SEA DeeJay Dallas5.3 (RB66)6.0 (RB64)-0.7 (RB41)
BAL Mark Ingram5.2 (RB67)6.0 (RB63)-0.8 (RB43)
PIT Benny Snell5.1 (RB68)7.6 (RB57)-2.5 (RB67)
SF JaMycal Hasty4.4 (RB69)5.2 (RB72)-0.8 (RB42)
MIN Alexander Mattison4.4 (RB70)5.3 (RB70)-0.8 (RB44)
CAR Rodney Smith4.2 (RB71)5.6 (RB68)-1.5 (RB57)
WAS Peyton Barber3.9 (RB72)5.2 (RB71)-1.4 (RB54)
ATL Ito Smith3.6 (RB73)5.1 (RB73)-1.5 (RB56)
JAX Dare Ogunbowale3.1 (RB74)5.0 (RB74)-1.8 (RB62)

 

The top 10 running backs in expected PPR points over expected per game: 

CLE Nick Chubb, NO Alvin Kamara, MIN Dalvin Cook, SEA Chris Carson, TEN Derrick Henry, WAS Antonio Gibson, JAX James Robinson, SF Jeff Wilson, GB Aaron Jones, and DET D'Andre Swift.

 

The bottom 10 running backs in expected PPR points over expected per game: 

LAC Kalen Ballage, DAL Ezekiel Elliott, LV Josh Jacobs, ARI Kenyan Drake, KC Clyde Edwards-Helaire, MIA Myles Gaskin, NYJ Frank Gore, PIT Benny Snell, CIN Joe Mixon, and KC Le'Veon Bell.

 


PPR Points Over Expected Per Game - TEs

To qualify, a tight end had to play in six healthy games and average at least 4.0 expected PPR points per game. There were 43 qualifiers.

PlayerPPRExpected PPRPPR Over Expected
KC Travis Kelce20.8 (TE1)17.0 (TE1)+3.9 (TE2)
SF George Kittle17.0 (TE2)13.2 (TE3)+3.8 (TE3)
LV Darren Waller16.9 (TE3)16.0 (TE2)+0.9 (TE11)
BAL Mark Andrews12.6 (TE4)12.0 (TE6)+0.7 (TE14)
PHI Dallas Goedert12.5 (TE5)11.5 (TE11)+0.9 (TE10)
DEN Noah Fant11.4 (TE6)11.6 (TE9)-0.3 (TE27)
DET T.J. Hockenson11.3 (TE7)11.8 (TE7)-0.5 (TE30)
GB Robert Tonyan11.1 (TE8)6.8 (TE25)+4.3 (TE1)
WAS Logan Thomas10.9 (TE9)12.1 (TE4)-1.2 (TE39)
MIA Mike Gesicki10.8 (TE10)10.1 (TE13)+0.6 (TE15)
TEN Jonnu Smith10.5 (TE11)9.4 (TE15)+1.0 (TE7)
PIT Eric Ebron10.5 (TE12)11.6 (TE8)-1.2 (TE36)
LAC Hunter Henry10.4 (TE13)11.6 (TE10)-1.2 (TE37)
TB Rob Gronkowski9.6 (TE14)8.8 (TE19)+0.9 (TE13)
CHI Jimmy Graham9.4 (TE15)9.4 (TE16)+0.0 (TE21)
NYG Evan Engram9.3 (TE16)12.0 (TE5)-2.7 (TE42)
ATL Hayden Hurst9.1 (TE17)9.1 (TE17)+0.0 (TE24)
DAL Dalton Schultz9.0 (TE18)8.9 (TE18)+0.1 (TE20)
LA Tyler Higbee8.7 (TE19)6.7 (TE26)+2.0 (TE4)
CLE Austin Hooper8.3 (TE20)9.5 (TE14)-1.2 (TE38)
NO Jared Cook8.2 (TE21)7.3 (TE23)+0.9 (TE12)
MIN Irv Smith7.6 (TE22)6.6 (TE27)+1.0 (TE8)
SF Jordan Reed7.3 (TE23)8.4 (TE20)-1.1 (TE35)
PHI Zach Ertz7.1 (TE24)11.3 (TE12)-4.2 (TE43)
IND Trey Burton6.9 (TE25)7.5 (TE22)-0.5 (TE31)
HOU Jordan Akins6.8 (TE26)6.9 (TE24)-0.0 (TE22)
MIN Tyler Conklin6.2 (TE27)5.1 (TE34)+1.1 (TE6)
JAX Tyler Eifert6.2 (TE28)8.1 (TE21)-1.9 (TE41)
ARI Dan Arnold6.1 (TE29)5.1 (TE35)+1.0 (TE9)
LA Gerald Everett6.0 (TE30)5.5 (TE32)+0.5 (TE16)
IND Mo Alie-Cox5.9 (TE31)4.7 (TE37)+1.2 (TE5)
MIN Kyle Rudolph5.6 (TE32)5.4 (TE33)+0.2 (TE19)
BUF Dawson Knox5.5 (TE33)5.7 (TE31)-0.2 (TE25)
TEN Anthony Firkser5.3 (TE34)6.1 (TE29)-0.7 (TE33)
CIN Drew Sample5.2 (TE35)5.9 (TE30)-0.7 (TE32)
SEA Greg Olsen4.9 (TE36)6.2 (TE28)-1.3 (TE40)
IND Jack Doyle4.7 (TE37)4.4 (TE40)+0.3 (TE17)
MIA Durham Smythe4.5 (TE38)4.2 (TE41)+0.3 (TE18)
SEA Jacob Hollister4.5 (TE39)4.8 (TE36)-0.4 (TE28)
CLE Harrison Bryant4.4 (TE40)4.4 (TE39)+0.0 (TE23)
NYJ Chris Herndon3.9 (TE41)4.1 (TE42)-0.2 (TE26)
JAX James O'Shaughnessy3.7 (TE42)4.1 (TE43)-0.4 (TE29)
CHI Cole Kmet3.5 (TE43)4.5 (TE38)-1.0 (TE34)

 

The top 10 tight ends in expected PPR points over expected per game: 

GB Robert Tonyan, KC Travis Kelce, SF George Kittle, LA Tyler Higbee, IND Mo Alie-Cox, MIN Tyler Conklin, TEN Jonnu Smith, MIN Irv Smith, ARI Dan Arnold, and PHI Dallas Goedert.

 

The bottom 10 tight ends in expected PPR points over expected per game: 

PHI Zach Ertz, NYG Evan Engram, JAX Tyler Eifert, SEA Greg Olsen, WAS Logan Thomas, CLE Austin Hooper, LAC Hunter Henry, PIT Eric Ebron, SF Jordan Reed, and CHI Cole Kmet.

 


 

PPR Points Over Expected Per Game - QBs

To qualify, a quarterback had to play in six healthy games and average at least 1.0 expected PPR points per game. There were 35 qualifiers. Note these are rushing and receiving stats only, not passing numbers.

PlayerPPRExpected PPRPPR Over Expected
ARI Kyler Murray9.8 (QB1)6.4 (QB3)+3.4 (QB1)
BAL Lamar Jackson9.5 (QB2)7.5 (QB2)+2.0 (QB3)
NE Cam Newton9.0 (QB3)8.7 (QB1)+0.3 (QB16)
NO Taysom Hill7.1 (QB4)6.1 (QB4)+0.9 (QB11)
BUF Josh Allen6.5 (QB5)5.4 (QB5)+1.1 (QB7)
PHI Carson Wentz4.8 (QB6)3.2 (QB10)+1.6 (QB4)
CAR Teddy Bridgewater4.1 (QB7)3.1 (QB12)+1.0 (QB9)
TEN Ryan Tannehill4.1 (QB8)1.9 (QB23)+2.2 (QB2)
HOU Deshaun Watson4.1 (QB9)4.2 (QB6)-0.1 (QB26)
SEA Russell Wilson4.0 (QB10)3.0 (QB14)+1.1 (QB8)
NYG Daniel Jones3.9 (QB11)2.6 (QB20)+1.4 (QB5)
MIA Tua Tagovailoa3.7 (QB12)3.6 (QB7)+0.1 (QB18)
LAC Justin Herbert3.3 (QB13)3.1 (QB13)+0.2 (QB17)
PHI Jalen Hurts3.3 (QB14)2.9 (QB15)+0.4 (QB14)
KC Patrick Mahomes3.3 (QB15)3.2 (QB9)+0.1 (QB19)
CIN Joe Burrow3.2 (QB16)3.2 (QB8)+0.0 (QB21)
MIA Ryan Fitzpatrick3.1 (QB17)3.1 (QB11)+0.0 (QB24)
NYJ Sam Darnold3.0 (QB18)1.7 (QB25)+1.3 (QB6)
DEN Drew Lock3.0 (QB19)2.7 (QB18)+0.4 (QB15)
IND Jacoby Brissett2.5 (QB20)1.5 (QB28)+1.0 (QB10)
CHI Mitchell Trubisky2.3 (QB21)2.8 (QB16)-0.4 (QB30)
LV Derek Carr2.3 (QB22)2.2 (QB22)+0.1 (QB20)
LA Jared Goff2.3 (QB23)2.3 (QB21)+0.0 (QB23)
JAX Gardner Minshew2.2 (QB24)1.8 (QB24)+0.5 (QB13)
GB Aaron Rodgers2.2 (QB25)1.6 (QB26)+0.6 (QB12)
WAS Dwayne Haskins1.5 (QB26)2.7 (QB17)-1.2 (QB33)
CLE Baker Mayfield1.3 (QB27)2.6 (QB19)-1.3 (QB35)
TB Tom Brady1.2 (QB28)1.4 (QB29)-0.2 (QB28)
NO Drew Brees1.2 (QB29)1.2 (QB32)+0.0 (QB22)
MIN Kirk Cousins1.0 (QB30)1.2 (QB33)-0.1 (QB27)
ATL Matt Ryan1.0 (QB31)1.1 (QB34)-0.1 (QB25)
DAL Andy Dalton0.8 (QB32)1.5 (QB27)-0.7 (QB32)
DET Matthew Stafford0.7 (QB33)1.3 (QB31)-0.6 (QB31)
CHI Nick Foles0.7 (QB34)1.1 (QB35)-0.4 (QB29)
PIT Ben Roethlisberger0.1 (QB35)1.3 (QB30)-1.2 (QB34)

 


PPR Points Per Game - All Offense

TeamPPRExpected PPRPPR Over Expected
KC90.0 (1)84.1 (2)+5.9 (7)
GB87.8 (2)74.6 (21)+13.2 (1)
BUF85.9 (3)80.7 (7)+5.2 (8)
TB85.5 (4)82.1 (5)+3.3 (10)
SEA84.9 (5)75.6 (19)+9.3 (4)
ARI84.5 (6)81.6 (6)+2.9 (11)
NO83.8 (7)77.2 (15)+6.6 (6)
TEN81.9 (8)71.9 (26)+10.1 (3)
MIN81.5 (9)71.2 (27)+10.3 (2)
DAL80.6 (10)83.0 (4)-2.4 (22)
LAC80.5 (11)83.3 (3)-2.9 (24)
LV79.7 (12)78.2 (12)+1.5 (14)
LA79.5 (13)77.5 (13)+2 (13)
SF78.8 (14)77.3 (14)+1.4 (15)
PIT78.6 (15)85.3 (1)-6.7 (30)
ATL78.5 (16)80.4 (9)-1.9 (20)
IND78.4 (17)78.3 (11)+0.0 (17)
HOU77.9 (18)70.7 (28)+7.2 (5)
CLE75.8 (19)72.2 (25)+3.6 (9)
DET75.7 (20)76.7 (18)-1.0 (18)
CHI74.2 (21)80.7 (8)-6.5 (29)
CAR73.9 (22)72.8 (24)+1.1 (16)
PHI73.1 (23)74.5 (22)-1.5 (19)
CIN72.2 (24)79.6 (10)-7.4 (31)
WAS71.5 (25)77.0 (17)-5.5 (27)
BAL71.3 (27)68.9 (30)+2.4 (12)
JAX71.3 (26)73.4 (23)-2.0 (21)
DEN71.1 (29)75.2 (20)-4.1 (25)
MIA71.1 (28)77.1 (16)-6.0 (28)
NE62.4 (30)65.2 (31)-2.8 (23)
NYG60.8 (31)69.1 (29)-8.3 (32)
NYJ56.6 (32)61.1 (32)-4.5 (26)

 


PPR Points Per Game - Passing Only

TeamPPRExpected PPRPPR Over Expected
KC73.6 (1)67.1 (2)+6.4 (6)
TB70.0 (2)66.5 (3)+3.5 (9)
BUF69.3 (3)62.9 (8)+6.5 (5)
GB68.2 (4)56.2 (22)+12.0 (1)
SEA66.8 (5)58.8 (14)+8.0 (4)
LAC65.5 (6)64.4 (6)+1.1 (16)
PIT65.4 (7)68.2 (1)-2.8 (23)
HOU65.2 (8)56.4 (21)+8.8 (3)
ATL64.3 (9)64.1 (7)+0.2 (19)
DAL64.1 (10)65.0 (4)-0.9 (21)
LV62.2 (11)58.0 (17)+4.2 (8)
ARI61.1 (12)58.4 (15)+2.7 (11)
DET60.6 (13)60.5 (11)+0.1 (20)
MIN59.9 (14)50.8 (29)+9.1 (2)
IND59.7 (15)58.4 (16)+1.2 (15)
CHI59.5 (17)64.6 (5)-5.2 (29)
SF59.5 (16)59.2 (13)+0.3 (17)
LA59.1 (18)57.0 (20)+2.2 (12)
NO58.2 (19)55.2 (24)+3.0 (10)
JAX57.9 (20)61.0 (10)-3.1 (25)
TEN57.1 (21)51.3 (28)+5.9 (7)
CIN57.0 (22)62.3 (9)-5.4 (30)
CAR55.8 (23)54.1 (25)+1.7 (14)
MIA55.1 (24)56.1 (23)-1.0 (22)
WAS54.3 (26)59.3 (12)-5.0 (28)
PHI54.3 (25)58.0 (18)-3.8 (27)
CLE53.7 (27)51.6 (27)+2.1 (13)
DEN51.4 (28)57.7 (19)-6.3 (31)
NYG45.0 (29)53.7 (26)-8.6 (32)
BAL44.7 (30)44.4 (31)+0.3 (18)
NYJ42.9 (31)46.2 (30)-3.3 (26)
NE39.8 (32)42.8 (32)-3.0 (24)

 


PPR Points Per Game - Rushing Only

TeamPPRExpected PPRPPR Over Expected
BAL26.6 (1)24.4 (1)+2.1 (5)
NO25.7 (2)22.0 (4)+3.7 (2)
TEN24.8 (3)20.6 (6)+4.2 (1)
ARI23.4 (4)23.2 (2)+0.2 (13)
NE22.5 (5)22.4 (3)+0.2 (14)
CLE22.1 (6)20.6 (7)+1.5 (6)
MIN21.6 (7)20.4 (9)+1.2 (8)
LA20.3 (8)20.6 (8)-0.2 (16)
DEN19.7 (9)17.5 (19)+2.2 (4)
GB19.6 (10)18.4 (14)+1.2 (9)
SF19.2 (11)18.1 (15)+1.1 (10)
PHI18.8 (12)16.5 (24)+2.3 (3)
IND18.7 (13)19.9 (11)-1.2 (21)
CAR18.1 (15)18.7 (13)-0.7 (19)
SEA18.1 (14)16.8 (23)+1.3 (7)
LV17.5 (16)20.2 (10)-2.7 (29)
WAS17.3 (17)17.7 (18)-0.5 (17)
BUF16.6 (18)17.8 (17)-1.3 (23)
DAL16.5 (19)18.0 (16)-1.5 (25)
KC16.4 (20)17.0 (22)-0.6 (18)
MIA16.0 (21)21.1 (5)-5.0 (32)
NYG15.8 (22)15.4 (29)+0.4 (12)
TB15.5 (23)15.6 (28)-0.1 (15)
CIN15.3 (24)17.3 (20)-2.0 (27)
DET15.1 (25)16.2 (26)-1.0 (20)
LAC15.0 (26)18.9 (12)-4.0 (31)
CHI14.7 (27)16.0 (27)-1.4 (24)
ATL14.2 (28)16.3 (25)-2.1 (28)
NYJ13.7 (29)14.9 (30)-1.2 (22)
JAX13.4 (30)12.3 (32)+1.1 (11)
PIT13.2 (31)17.1 (21)-3.9 (30)
HOU12.7 (32)14.3 (31)-1.6 (26)

 


Winks' Offseason Columns

1. Targets Aren't Equal

2. Air Yards Report

3. Expected PPR Points

 


Questions?

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