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Fantasy Usage Model

Fantasy Usage Model Notes: Jeudy Pops Week 10

by Hayden Winks
Updated On: November 18, 2020, 1:01 am ET

“The Fantasy Usage Model” simply is how many PPR fantasy points an average NFL player in an average NFL offense would’ve scored with the same exact opportunity. Read Targets Aren’t Created Equal and Carries Aren’t Created Equal if you want to see the type of variables that go into this model, but think air yards, relation to the sideline, yards from the end zone, and scheme indicator metrics. It’s a “Buy Low Model” (shoutout to the great Josh Hermsmeyer). To make things better, I manually clean the data each week with things I can adjust for that a computer wouldn’t know about (i.e. removing early-injury games) because the data is only as good as the context that comes with it. If you have questions, reach out to me on Twitter (@HaydenWinks)

 


Top 5 Rebound Candidates of Week 11

1. DeVante Parker (@ DEN)

2. Michael Thomas (vs. ATL)

3. Jerry Jeudy (vs. MIA)

4. Miles Sanders (@ CLE)

5. Cooper Kupp (@ TB)

 


Fantasy Usage Model - WRs

Average expected PPR points and PPR data from the last four weeks. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

PlayerFantasy UsagePPR Per GameContext
Davante AdamsWR1 (24.3)WR1 (32.2)Instincts + Prep + Chemistry are unmatched.
Tyreek HillWR2 (21.0)WR2 (25.5)xFPs: With Sammy (13.3), w/o (16.0). Outlier.
Brandon AiyukWR3 (19.8)WR5 (20.1)31% target share, 5th in targets P/G in last 4.
Tyler BoydWR4 (19.3)WR10 (18.9)14.5 xFPs in 6 of 9 weeks. PPR WR2.
Tyler LockettWR5 (18.6)WR6 (20.0)Insane volatility but WR1 production on avg.
JuJu Smith-SchusterWR6 (17.8)WR11 (18.8)14.3 xFPs in 6 games since bye. WR2/3.
Cooper KuppWR7 (17.8)WR28 (14.6)Inconsistent WR2 usage with injuries.
Keenan AllenWR8 (16.5)WR4 (20.6)Season-low 12.4 xFPs in rare average game.
Stefon DiggsWR9 (16.1)WR14 (18.0)At least 10.8 PPR points in all 10 games.
Diontae JohnsonWR10 (16.1)WR19 (17.1)16.1 xFPs in 4 healthy games since bye.
Terry McLaurinWR11 (16.1)WR3 (21.9)At least 10.9 xFPs in all games. WR1/2.
Calvin RidleyWR12 (15.8)WR15 (17.9)Removed Weeks 8-10. Upside WR1/2.
Chase ClaypoolWR13 (15.5)WR41 (12.8)16.1 xFPs in 6 games since bye. Baller. WR2.
Jakobi MeyersWR14 (15.3)WR23 (15.7)WR2/3 usage since bye. Plays like a starter.
Julio JonesWR15 (15.1)WR12 (18.3)16.8 xFPs per game in 5 healthy games. WR1.
Jerry JeudyWR16 (15.1)WR40 (12.9)Moving to outside WR has helped a lot. WR3.
Richie JamesWR17 (14.9)WR7 (19.5)42-of-45 routes as 2-WR set starter. WR5.
Josh ReynoldsWR18 (14.8)WR34 (13.7)At least 11.0 xFPs in last 4 games. WR3/4.
DK MetcalfWR19 (14.7)WR13 (18.3)Efficiency outlier on WR2 usage. Rebound.
Mike EvansWR20 (14.6)WR39 (13.1)Season-high 26.2 xFPs Week 10.
Anthony MillerWR21 (14.1)WR67 (9.0)20% target share in last 4 but Foles.... WR5.
DeAndre HopkinsWR22 (14.1)WR8 (19.3)Inconsistent WR1/2 usage but a WR1 still.
Brandin CooksWR23 (14.0)WR37 (13.4)15.6 xFPs since BOB firing. Upside WR2/3.
Michael PittmanWR24 (13.9)WR29 (14.4)IND's best WR. 38-of-40 routes Week 10.
Robby AndersonWR25 (13.9)WR47 (11.2) 
Christian KirkWR26 (13.9)WR20 (16.9)11.5 xFPs since injury. Volatile deep threat.
Sterling ShepardWR27 (13.6)WR33 (13.9)Led NYG WRs in xFPs in 3-of-4 games. Flex.
Tee HigginsWR28 (13.3)WR9 (19.2)CIN's best WR. Emerging WR2/3 usage.
Travis FulghamWR29 (13.2)WR46 (11.3)11.8 & 8.1 xFPs in two games with Reagor.
Curtis SamuelWR30 (12.9)WR16 (17.5) 
Jarvis LandryWR31 (12.7)WR73 (8.5)25% targets Week 10. Wind + hip slowing him.
Michael ThomasWR32 (12.7)WR86 (7.4)Betting against WR1 usage with more comp.
Marvin JonesWR33 (12.4)WR18 (17.2)xFPs: With Golladay (7.2), without (12.5).
A.J. GreenWR34 (12.2)WR95 (6.4)Wk 10 routes: AJG (35), Tate (11). Should flip.
John BrownWR35 (12.2)WR45 (11.4)Usage has been tied to health (ankle, knee).
Corey DavisWR36 (12.1)WR36 (13.5)2 good, 2 bad games in last 4. Volatile WR4/5.
Tim PatrickWR37 (12.1)WR53 (10.1)11.5 xFPs in 6 games with Lock. WR5.
Robert WoodsWR38 (12.0)WR27 (14.8)Iffy ceiling but at least 9.0 xFPs in all 9 games.
D.J. CharkWR39 (12.0)WR35 (13.6)Inconsistent usage and production. WR3.
Darnell MooneyWR40 (12.0)WR64 (9.1)Season-low 2.6 xFPs Week 10. Bad fit. WR5.
Deebo SamuelWR41 (11.8)WR42 (12.2)12.5, 10.0, & 11.8 xFPs in 3 healthy games.
Chris GodwinWR42 (11.7)WR25 (15.4)9.5 & 9.7 xFPs since returning. WR3.
Kenny GolladayWR43 (11.5)WR17 (17.4)Between 11.2 & 15.2 xFPs in 4 healthy games.
A.J. BrownWR44 (11.5)WR22 (15.7)Efficiency outlier on WR3/4 usage. WR2.
Cole BeasleyWR45 (11.4)WR26 (15.4)Season-high 20.3 xFPs in Week 10. Brown?
KJ HamlerWR46 (11.2)WR56 (9.9)Ran a route on 47-of-52 dropbacks. Slot WR6.
Michael GallupWR47 (11.2)WR91 (6.6)WR4 usage since Dak's injury. Deep threat.
Allen RobinsonWR48 (11.2)WR30 (14.3)Frustrating 19% target share in last 4. WR2.
Jalen ReagorWR49 (11.0)WR51 (10.5)39-of-43 routes Week 10. Upside WR5.
Willie SneadWR50 (10.9)WR24 (15.6)xFPs since bye: Snead (10.9), Brown (8.8).
Antonio BrownWR51 (10.8)WR58 (9.9)7.8 & 13.9 xFPs since returning. WR3.
Mike WilliamsWR52 (10.8)WR52 (10.3)Upside tied to LAC's neutral pass rate. WR3.
Randall CobbWR53 (10.7)WR57 (9.9)Only 1 game above 11.0 xFPs. Slot WR6.
Will FullerWR54 (10.6)WR31 (14.1)Efficiency outlier on WR3/4 usage. WR2/3.
Larry FitzgeraldWR55 (10.6)WR68 (9.0)Zero games above 12.0 xFPs. Needs TDs.
DeSean JacksonWR56 (10.4)WR84 (7.6) 
Denzel MimsWR57 (10.4)WR78 (8.2)28-of-28 routes Week 9. Upside WR5.
CeeDee LambWR58 (10.3)WR72 (8.6)xFPs: Weeks 1-5 (14.7), Weeks 7-9 (10.3).
Zach PascalWR59 (10.3)WR75 (8.4)32-of-40 routes as slot man in 3-WR sets.
DeVante ParkerWR60 (10.3)WR77 (8.3)28% target share Wk 10. Tua passes eye test.
Adam ThielenWR61 (10.1)WR49 (10.6)Efficient but at expense of MIN run game.
Justin JeffersonWR62 (9.6)WR43 (12.2)Elite efficiency but boom-bust box scores.
Greg WardWR63 (9.4)WR62 (9.4)Only plays in 3-WR sets as slot man.
Chris ConleyWR64 (9.1)WR54 (10.1)12.7 & 10.0 xFPs in two games without Viska.
Amari CooperWR65 (8.9)WR59 (9.8)xFPs: Weeks 1-5 (17.9), Weeks 7-9 (8.9).
Braxton BerriosWR66 (8.9)WR88 (7.1) 
Marquise BrownWR67 (8.8)WR101 (5.8)Under 11.5 xFPs in 7-of-9 games. WR5.
D.J. MooreWR68 (8.5)WR32 (14.1)Under 11.0 xFPs in 7 of last 8 games. Flex.
Nelson AgholorWR69 (8.5)WR63 (9.3)Only 1 game above 8.5 xFPs.
Russell GageWR70 (8.5)WR96 (6.3)Below-average player on bad usage.
Kendrick BourneWR71 (8.3)WR85 (7.6)32-of-45 routes Week 10 as No. 3 WR.
Danny AmendolaWR72 (8.3)WR65 (9.1)Only 1 game above 11.0 xFPs all year.
Breshad PerrimanWR73 (8.3)WR21 (15.9)28-of-28 routes Week 9. Needs big plays.
Darius SlaytonWR74 (8.1)WR81 (7.8)xFPs: With Shepard (8.1), without (12.9).
T.Y. HiltonWR75 (7.9)WR80 (8.0)1 game above 10.0 PPR points. Pittman time.
Scotty MillerWR76 (7.8)WR76 (8.4) 
Mecole HardmanWR77 (7.8)WR38 (13.1)35-of-51 routes Week 9. Sammy returning?
Isaiah WrightWR78 (7.7)WR69 (9.0)Started in slot in Week 10.
David MooreWR79 (7.5)WR48 (11.1)Rare WR insurance to top-2 SEA receivers.
Jakeem GrantWR80 (7.4)WR79 (8.1)Season-high 10.2 xFPs, 21-of-27 routes Wk 10.
DaeSean HamiltonWR81 (7.2)WR60 (9.8) 
Cordarrelle PattersonWR82 (7.1)WR103 (5.4)Season-high 11.3 xFPs Week 10 + kick return.
Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR83 (6.9)WR44 (12.1)Has hit as low-volume deep threat. Lazard?
Marvin HallWR84 (6.7)WR71 (8.8)2-WR set starter without Golladay.
Marquez CallawayWR85 (6.5)WR98 (6.2) 
Emmanuel SandersWR86 (6.4)WR83 (7.7)Iffy usage but Jameis is an upgrade for him.
Marcus JohnsonWR87 (6.4)WR116 (3.1) 
Jalen GuytonWR88 (6.3)WR93 (6.5) 
Golden TateWR89 (6.3)WR61 (9.5) 
Rashard HigginsWR90 (6.3)WR66 (9.1)Zero games above 10.0 xFPs despite starting.
Deonte HarrisWR91 (6.1)WR82 (7.7) 
Tre'Quan SmithWR92 (6.0)WR89 (6.8) 
Gabriel DavisWR93 (6.0)WR105 (4.8)7.1, 16.3, & 5.0 xFPs in games without Brown.
Henry RuggsWR94 (6.0)WR107 (4.1)Zero games above 9.0 xFPs. I'll fight you, Gruden.
Damiere ByrdWR95 (5.9)WR104 (5.3) 
Hunter RenfrowWR96 (5.9)WR74 (8.5) 
Keelan ColeWR97 (5.9)WR94 (6.5)Slot WR6 with inconsistent usage.
Auden TateWR98 (5.7)WR100 (6.0) 
Demarcus RobinsonWR99 (5.6)WR55 (10.0)42-of-51 routes Week 9. Sammy returning?
Cam SimsWR100 (5.3)WR70 (8.9) 

 

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Fantasy Usage Model - TEs

Average expected PPR points and PPR data from the last four weeks. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

PlayerFantasy UsagePPR Per GameContext
Travis KelceTE1 (14.9)TE1 (19.0)7th all time in PPR thru 9 games at TE.
Darren WallerTE2 (14.1)TE5 (11.2)At least 8.9 xFPs in all games. Bad efficiency.
Evan EngramTE3 (13.8)TE8 (10.6)Shaky results on inconsistent TE1 usage.
T.J. HockensonTE4 (12.6)TE2 (12.2)Season-low 22 routes Week 10 (toe).
Hayden HurstTE5 (11.3)TE3 (12.1)xFPs: With JJ & CR (7.4), with one (10.8).
Mark AndrewsTE6 (11.1)TE14 (8.2)No Nick Boyle (knee). Inconsistent TE1.
Eric EbronTE7 (10.8)TE7 (10.7)At least 7.4 xFPs in 8-of-9 games. TE1/2.
Rob GronkowskiTE8 (10.8)TE4 (11.4)10.4 & 6.9 xFPs in 2 games with big 3 WRs.
Noah FantTE9 (10.2)TE17 (7.7)TE1 usage with a ceiling if ankle/QB cooperates.
Hunter HenryTE10 (9.8)TE13 (8.2)Steady TE1 usage in fantasy TE wasteland.
Dalton SchultzTE11 (9.7)TE16 (8.1)High-end TE2 usage in suspect offense.
Jimmy GrahamTE12 (9.3)TE18 (7.2)Tied to TDs in awful offense but TE1/2 usage.
Logan ThomasTE13 (8.7)TE6 (10.8)62-of-63 routes Week 10. TE1/2 usage.
Gerald EverettTE14 (8.4)TE11 (8.6)Week 10 routes: Higbee (21), Everett (18).
Trey BurtonTE15 (8.0)TE28 (5.7)Week 10 routes: Burton (19), Alie-Cox (24).
Jonnu SmithTE16 (8.0)TE19 (6.9)9.2 xFPs in 5 healthy games with AJB. TE1/2.
Jared CookTE17 (7.9)TE12 (8.3)TD-dependent TE2 in functional offense.
Troy FumagalliTE18 (7.5)TE45 (3.2) 
Tyler HigbeeTE19 (7.3)TE25 (6.2)TE1 upside if Everett were to miss. TE2/3 now.
Tyler EifertTE20 (7.0)TE26 (6.2)Past his prime TE with backup QB.
Greg OlsenTE21 (6.8)TE47 (3.1)35-of-53 routes Week 10. TD-needy TE3.
Richard RodgersTE22 (6.7)TE15 (8.2)Only 11-of-43 routes Week 10.
Jacob HollisterTE23 (6.1)TE34 (4.9)Only played in major blowout.
Mo Alie-CoxTE24 (6.1)TE23 (6.3)Week 10 routes: Burton (19), Alie-Cox (24).
Irv SmithTE25 (5.9)TE10 (8.8)Removed Week 10. Low-end TE2 usage.
Jordan ReedTE26 (5.8)TE24 (6.3)8.6 xFPs on 25-of-45 Week 10 routes. TE1/2.
Mike GesickiTE27 (5.7)TE30 (5.0)3.0, 6.0, & 8.0 xFPs since bye. Upside TE2.
Dallas GoedertTE28 (5.5)TE31 (4.9)36-of-43 routes Week 10. TE1 upside.
Ross DwelleyTE29 (5.4)TE20 (6.7) 
Anthony FirkserTE30 (5.4)TE40 (3.7) 
Jordan AkinsTE31 (5.3)TE51 (2.7) 
Kyle RudolphTE32 (5.2)TE21 (6.5)Season-high 8.5 xFPs in game w/o Irv.
Harrison BryantTE33 (5.1)TE9 (9.0) 
Robert TonyanTE34 (5.1)TE22 (6.5)5.2 xFPs in 5 games since Adams returned.
Drew SampleTE35 (4.7)TE37 (4.0) 

 


Fantasy Usage Model - RBs

Average expected PPR points and PPR data from the last four weeks. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

PlayerFantasy UsagePPR Per GameContext
Christian McCaffreyRB1 (28.0)RB1 (36.8)Could be held out through Week 13 bye.
Alvin KamaraRB2 (23.2)RB3 (24.7)At least 18.8 xFPs in all games.
Dalvin CookRB3 (22.8)RB2 (34.3)Vikings establishing it harder than anyone.
Kalen BallageRB4 (20.3)RB11 (15.8)Awful efficiency but 16.6 & 23.9 xFPs in last 2.
J.D. McKissicRB5 (20.0)RB19 (14.1)28% target share in all games with QB Smith.
James RobinsonRB6 (19.7)RB4 (19.6)RB1 usage/production. RB Thompson to IR?
Giovani BernardRB7 (18.8)RB8 (17.4)xFPs: With Mixon (7.0), without (18.8).
Salvon AhmedRB8 (18.6)RB9 (16.0)18.6 xFPs in Gaskin-like bellcow role Week 10.
Todd GurleyRB9 (18.1)RB13 (15.4)At least 13.4 xFPs in all games. Steady RB2.
Jamaal WilliamsRB10 (17.8)RB14 (15.4)9.4 xFPs with Jones. Desperate RB3.
David MontgomeryRB11 (17.7)RB34 (10.5)Removed Wk 10. CHI's best RB is CPatt.
Josh JacobsRB12 (16.7)RB12 (15.6)Carries per game: In wins (23.5), losses (13.7).
Kareem HuntRB13 (16.2)RB15 (14.9)xFPs: With Chubb (15.6), without (14.4). Odd.
Aaron JonesRB14 (15.9)RB21 (13.7)xFPs: With Adams (18.3), without (24.0).
James ConnerRB15 (15.3)RB37 (10.0)Bad on RB1/2 usage. PIT passing more.
Leonard FournetteRB16 (14.7)RB35 (10.2)Passing down edge but RoJo running hotter.
D'Andre SwiftRB17 (14.7)RB16 (14.7)15.0+ xFPs in 4-of-5 games since bye. RB2.
Miles SandersRB18 (14.4)RB26 (11.5)16.6 xFPs in healthy games. Low-end RB1.
Chase EdmondsRB19 (14.4)RB17 (14.7)10.5 xFPs per game with Drake. PPR RB3.
Antonio GibsonRB20 (14.4)RB6 (18.6)Only 18-of-63 routes Week 10. Pure runner.
Wayne GallmanRB21 (13.8)RB10 (15.8)Near bellcow role with goal line in bad O.
Derrick HenryRB22 (13.7)RB23 (12.8)xFPs per game: In wins (20.5), losses (15.4).
Justin JacksonRB23 (13.5)RB20 (13.9)Was the 1A before his injury. Unknown now.
Kenyan DrakeRB24 (13.2)RB42 (8.5)Saw both Week 10 inside-10 touches. RB2.
Ronald JonesRB25 (13.1)RB24 (12.7)Needs leads & to stop fumbling. RB2/3 now.
Ezekiel ElliottRB26 (12.8)RB45 (7.8)xFPs: Weeks 1-5 (24.2), Weeks 7-9 (12.8).
DeeJay DallasRB27 (12.8)RB29 (11.2)Played behind Alex Collins in Week 10.
Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB28 (12.5)RB33 (10.6)xFPs: With Bell (12.5), without (20.3). Video.
Nyheim HinesRB29 (12.4)RB7 (18.5)Passing down back + hot hand potential.
Duke JohnsonRB30 (12.3)RB32 (10.6)Only 9.4 xFPs Week 10 despite 54-of-57 snaps.
Gus EdwardsRB31 (12.2)RB27 (11.5)Week 10 snaps: JK (29), Ingram (17), Gus (15).
Nick ChubbRB32 (11.3)RB5 (18.6)Outlier on RB2 usage. Early-down role only.
Jonathan TaylorRB33 (11.2)RB46 (7.4)Feet of: Montgomery, Vision of: Montgomery...
Jerick McKinnonRB34 (11.2)RB39 (8.8)15.3 & 17.5 xFPs in last 2. Mostert back?
Boston ScottRB35 (11.1)RB18 (14.2) 
Melvin GordonRB36 (10.9)RB40 (8.8)10.9 xFPs in 4 games since Lindsay returned.
Mike DavisRB37 (10.6)RB41 (8.6)xFPs: Weeks 3-6 (24.5), Weeks 7-10 (10.6).
Darrell HendersonRB38 (10.5)RB36 (10.0)Week 10 snaps: MB (29), DH (23), Akers (18).
Jordan WilkinsRB39 (10.4)RB38 (9.0)Hot hand potential as boom-bust RB3.
Devin SingletaryRB40 (9.7)RB50 (6.3)9.3 xFPs in 5 games since Moss returned.
Rex BurkheadRB41 (9.6)RB25 (12.5)Week 10 routes: Rex (9), White (5), Harris (2).
J.K. DobbinsRB42 (9.6)RB47 (7.0)Week 10 routes: JK (20), Ingram (9), Gus (6).
Zack MossRB43 (9.2)RB28 (11.5)RB3/4 that can only be saved by TDs.
Damien HarrisRB44 (8.8)RB30 (10.9)All 22 touches on early downs. TD-needy RB3.
Joshua KelleyRB45 (8.7)RB48 (6.7)Only 17-of-63 snaps in Week 10. Not good.
Malcolm BrownRB46 (8.5)RB22 (12.8)Passing down back with some GL work. RB3.
Latavius MurrayRB47 (8.2)RB52 (6.2) 
Lamical PerineRB48 (7.9)RB43 (8.2)Bigger role expected post-bye. RB3 for now.
Adrian PetersonRB49 (7.8)RB66 (4.4)Season-low 7 snaps in Week 10.
Tony PollardRB50 (7.2)RB54 (6.1) 
Samaje PerineRB51 (7.1)RB51 (6.2) 
JaMycal HastyRB52 (7.1)RB53 (6.2) 
Tyler ErvinRB53 (6.5)RB62 (4.7) 
Brian HillRB54 (6.5)RB57 (5.6) 
Chris ThompsonRB55 (6.0)RB44 (7.8) 
Frank GoreRB56 (5.8)RB56 (5.6) 
Phillip LindsayRB57 (5.6)RB49 (6.5)Early-down grinder & insurance only.
Le'Veon BellRB58 (5.5)RB71 (4.0)4.8, 7.5, & 4.1 xFPs in three games with KC.
Troymaine PopeRB59 (5.3)RB58 (5.0)No snaps in Week 10 following injury.
Alex CollinsRB60 (5.3)RB55 (6.1) 
Mark IngramRB61 (5.2)RB59 (4.9)Under 9.0 xFPs in 5-of-6 healthy games.
Devontae BookerRB62 (5.0)RB31 (10.8) 
James WhiteRB63 (5.0)RB72 (4.0)Week 10 routes: Rex (9), White (5), Harris (2).
Cam AkersRB64 (5.0)RB75 (3.4) 
Alfred MorrisRB65 (4.6)RB61 (4.8) 

 


The Fantasy Usage Model: Week 11

Part 1: High Value RB Touches (Sunday Night)

Part 2: Targets Aren’t Created Equal (Monday Night)

Part 3: Air Yards Report (Monday Night)

Part 4: Fantasy Usage Model Notes (Tuesday)

My Twitter: @HaydenWinks