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Fantasy Usage Model

Situational RB Touches: A Week 14 Recap

by Hayden Winks
Updated On: December 18, 2020, 3:00 pm ET

Opportunity matters more than talent in fantasy football, but not all touches are created equal. We have to go beyond just "carries" to analyze how a player is being involved, especially at running back where players are used in all kinds of ways. "Situational RB Touches" will break down which running backs are being used optimally and which running backs are only seeing low-value touches. 


Week 14 Situational RB Touches

One way to look at how running backs are used is by separating third-down touches from early-down touches (touches on 1st or 2nd down). In a perfect world, running backs would have high touch totals in both situations, plus dominate touches inside the 10-yard line. Those are shown below, as well as “Pass Situation Targets”. The goal with this metric is to find the running backs who play on obvious passing downs because we want bankable targets from our fantasy running backs. “Pass Situation Targets” include targets during two-minute drills, targets on 3rd- or 4th-and-long, or targets while clearly trailing (all while removing garbage time). If that’s too much to think about, it’s essentially the type of plays where you’re screaming at the TV because Giovani Bernard is playing over Joe Mixon. We’ve all been there.

PlayerEarly DownsThird DownInside 10Passing Situation Targets
ARI Kenyan Drake22140
ARI Chase Edmonds9301
ATL Ito Smith12000
ATL Todd Gurley9001
ATL Keith Smith2100
ATL Brian Hill1101
BAL J.K. Dobbins13020
BAL Gus Edwards8000
BAL Justice Hill0100
BUF Zack Moss13110
BUF Devin Singletary8000
CAR Mike Davis15232
CAR Rodney Smith2201
CAR Alex Armah1010
CAR Trenton Cannon1000
CHI David Montgomery12310
CIN Trayveon Williams14102
CIN Samaje Perine10200
CIN Giovani Bernard4203
CLE Nick Chubb19021
CLE Kareem Hunt11215
DAL Ezekiel Elliott14110
DAL Tony Pollard10220
DEN Melvin Gordon13321
DEN Phillip Lindsay12100
DET D'Andre Swift12032
DET Adrian Peterson5010
DET Kerryon Johnson3010
GB Aaron Jones17111
GB Jamaal Williams8220
HOU Buddy Howell13000
HOU Duke Johnson7301
HOU C.J. Prosise1101
IND Jonathan Taylor20220
IND Nyheim Hines10121
IND Jordan Wilkins1201
JAX James Robinson16000
JAX Devine Ozigbo4000
JAX Dare Ogunbowale1000
KC Clyde Edwards-Helaire21100
KC Le'Veon Bell4101
KC Anthony Sherman1000
LA Cam Akers26642
LA Darrell Henderson2000
LA Malcolm Brown1000
LAC Austin Ekeler24011
LAC Kalen Ballage7211
LAC Justin Jackson6001
LAC Gabe Nabers0100
LV Josh Jacobs17112
LV Devontae Booker7000
LV Jalen Richard7000
MIA DeAndre Washington16110
MIA Patrick Laird4100
MIN Dalvin Cook22321
MIN Ameer Abdullah4101
MIN Mike Boone3000
MIN C.J. Ham2200
NE Damien Harris13010
NE Sony Michel6110
NE James White3201
NO Alvin Kamara19224
NO Latavius Murray5000
NYG Wayne Gallman16001
NYG Alfred Morris3000
NYG Dion Lewis1110
NYJ Frank Gore9001
NYJ Ty Johnson8000
NYJ Josh Adams7100
PHI Miles Sanders17120
PHI Boston Scott4000
PIT James Conner10000
PIT Jaylen Samuels8001
PIT Benny Snell3000
SEA Chris Carson16110
SEA Carlos Hyde14140
SEA DeeJay Dallas3110
SF Raheem Mostert18001
SF Jeff Wilson10423
SF Kyle Juszczyk4020
TB Ronald Jones19132
TB LeSean McCoy2301
TB Ke'Shawn Vaughn1000
TEN Derrick Henry27110
TEN Jeremy McNichols9210
WAS Peyton Barber14110
WAS J.D. McKissic12313

 


Week 14 Garbage Time Eaters

Percentage of a player’s touches that came when @nflfastR’s in-game winning percentage was less than 10% or greater than 90%. This is when backups enter the game, but it’s not always a bad thing. Use your judgement. Minimum four touches and 50% “Garbage Rate”.

PlayerGarbage RateGarbage TouchTotal Touches
Buddy Howell100%1313
Jalen Richard100%77
Patrick Laird100%55
Jeremy McNichols92%1112
Sterling Shepard80%45
Sony Michel75%68
Carlos Hyde73%1115
Cole Kmet71%57
Zack Moss71%1014
Kyler Murray70%710
Tony Pollard69%913
D.J. Chark67%69
David Moore67%46
Jordan Akins67%46
Mike Gesicki67%46
Mack Hollins67%69
Tua Tagovailoa67%46
Chris Carson65%1117
Cam Akers63%2032
Josh Adams63%58
Tee Higgins63%58
Tyreek Hill63%58
Allen Robinson62%813
David Montgomery60%915
Emmanuel Sanders60%35
Lynn Bowden60%610
Steven Mitchell60%35
Taysom Hill60%35
Tyler Lockett60%35
Chase Edmonds58%712
Kenyan Drake58%1424
Samaje Perine58%712
Cordarrelle Patterson57%47
Devontae Booker57%47
Robert Woods56%59
Clyde Edwards-Helaire55%1222
DeAndre Hopkins55%611
DK Metcalf50%48
Eric Ebron50%36
Giovani Bernard50%36
James Robinson50%816
Jaylen Samuels50%48
Keelan Cole50%612
Michael Gallup50%36
Marvin Jones50%48
Wayne Gallman50%816

 

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Golden Opportunities

As shown graphically here, targets and opportunities near the goal line are by far the most valuable types of touches for fantasy RBs. I've combined them to create "Golden Opportunities", which are targets plus inside-the-10-yard line touches. The players in the table are sorted by golden opportunities per game over the last four weeks (min. three carries per game and 0.1 golden opportunities per game). “Inside-10” are targets plus carries within 10 yards of the end zone over the last four weeks. “Opps” are opportunities, which are targets plus carries. "Golden Opp %" is the percentage of opportunities that are golden opportunities. The higher, the better for all categories.

PlayerGolden OppsInside 10TargetsCarriesOppsGolden Opp %Last 4 Games
1. Austin Ekeler13.01.711.312.323.755%3
2. Dalvin Cook8.32.85.524.830.327%4
3. D'Andre Swift8.03.05.07.012.067%1
4. Myles Gaskin8.06.02.021.023.035%1
5. Salvon Ahmed8.02.06.012.018.044%1
6. Mike Davis7.32.74.715.019.737%3
7. Kenyan Drake7.34.03.316.519.837%4
8. Nyheim Hines7.32.05.37.312.558%4
9. James Robinson6.52.04.517.321.830%4
10. David Montgomery6.01.34.713.017.734%3
11. DeAndre Washington6.01.54.513.017.534%2
12. Kalen Ballage5.70.75.010.015.038%3
13. Chase Edmonds5.50.55.05.310.354%4
14. Ezekiel Elliott5.52.03.515.318.829%4
15. J.D. McKissic5.50.55.05.810.851%4
16. Antonio Gibson5.32.33.012.715.734%3
17. Alvin Kamara5.01.04.012.516.530%4
18. Chris Carson5.00.74.311.015.333%3
19. Leonard Fournette5.01.53.55.08.559%2
20. Rex Burkhead5.02.03.04.07.071%1
21. Cam Akers4.83.51.316.017.328%4
22. James White4.80.84.03.37.366%4
23. Josh Jacobs4.71.73.012.315.330%3
24. Jeff Wilson4.72.02.710.012.737%3
25. Duke Johnson4.50.34.37.311.539%4
26. Wayne Gallman4.31.33.017.320.321%3
27. Benny Snell4.32.51.88.510.341%4
28. Miles Sanders4.30.83.511.515.028%4
29. Carlos Hyde4.01.82.311.513.829%4
30. Kareem Hunt4.02.02.012.314.328%3
31. Aaron Jones3.80.83.014.317.322%4
32. Giovani Bernard3.80.53.38.011.333%4
33. Kerryon Johnson3.80.53.35.58.843%4
34. Jonathan Taylor3.70.73.018.321.317%3
35. Ty Johnson3.51.02.58.010.533%4
36. Clyde Edwards-Helaire3.30.33.013.716.720%3
37. Nick Chubb3.32.01.319.020.316%3
38. Raheem Mostert3.31.02.313.015.322%3
39. Derrick Henry3.31.02.324.026.312%4
40. Le'Veon Bell3.31.02.36.38.538%4
41. Adrian Peterson3.02.30.810.511.327%4
42. Devontae Booker3.00.52.57.510.030%4
43. Damien Harris3.01.81.313.014.321%4
44. Devin Singletary3.00.32.712.014.720%3
45. David Johnson3.01.02.010.012.025%1
46. Melvin Gordon2.81.51.313.815.018%4
47. Joshua Kelley2.71.31.33.75.053%3
48. Ronald Jones2.71.01.712.314.019%3
49. Ito Smith2.50.52.08.010.025%4
50. J.K. Dobbins2.51.51.013.014.018%2
51. Justice Hill2.51.01.54.56.042%2
52. Latavius Murray2.51.01.510.011.522%4
53. Todd Gurley2.30.32.07.39.325%3
54. Zack Moss2.31.01.38.39.724%3
55. Frank Gore2.30.81.510.512.019%4
56. Jeremy McNichols2.30.51.85.37.032%4
57. Jordan Wilkins2.30.02.34.06.336%4
58. Buddy Howell2.00.02.011.013.015%1
59. Darrell Henderson2.00.31.85.87.527%4
60. Lamical Perine2.01.01.08.09.022%1
61. Sony Michel2.01.01.08.59.521%2
62. Trayveon Williams2.00.02.06.58.524%2
63. Jamaal Williams1.80.81.09.310.317%4
64. Tony Pollard1.80.51.37.08.321%4
65. James Conner1.50.01.511.513.012%2
66. Peyton Barber1.50.80.811.312.013%4
67. Samaje Perine1.50.31.34.55.826%4
68. Alfred Morris1.31.00.35.05.325%3
69. Josh Adams1.00.30.75.05.718%3
70. LeSean McCoy1.00.01.04.05.020%1
71. Matt Breida1.00.01.05.06.017%2
72. Rodney Smith1.00.01.05.76.715%3
73. Phillip Lindsay0.80.00.812.513.36%4
74. Anthony McFarland0.70.00.73.34.017%3
75. Gus Edwards0.70.70.06.36.311%3
76. Brian Hill0.50.00.55.86.38%4
77. Mark Ingram0.50.00.54.04.511%2
78. Bo Scarbrough0.00.00.06.06.00%1
79. Jordan Howard0.00.00.04.04.00%1
80. Royce Freeman0.00.00.08.08.00%1

 


Game-Script Touch Shares

Some players get the ball more when their team is leading (think LeGarrette Blount), while others get the ball more when their team is trailing (think James White). This table shows each player’s touch share -- the percentage of a team’s plays that went to a player -- while playing in neutral game script (in-game winning percentage between 34-66%), while trailing (0-33%), and while leading (67-100%). Please note that I removed players who have missed a game within the last four weeks. All touch shares are from over the last four weeks. Beware of small samples when a team has few plays within a game script.

PlayerNeutralTrailingLeadingGame Script Bump
TEN Derrick Henry57%28%42% 
MIN Dalvin Cook57%30%48%Positive
JAX James Robinson51%25%29% 
NE Damien Harris40%19%23% 
CLE Nick Chubb40%NA30% 
DAL Ezekiel Elliott39%28%21% 
ARI Kenyan Drake39%27%30% 
CHI David Montgomery39%29%28% 
SF Raheem Mostert36%14%22% 
GB Aaron Jones36%NA25% 
NYJ Frank Gore35%22%NA 
PHI Miles Sanders33%20%32% 
NYG Wayne Gallman32%41%37% 
TB Ronald Jones30%14%38% 
CAR Mike Davis29%33%29% 
CIN Giovani Bernard29%13%NA 
NO Alvin Kamara29%34%24% 
DEN Phillip Lindsay28%10%27% 
DEN Melvin Gordon24%36%26% 
IND Nyheim Hines23%20%11% 
BUF Devin Singletary23%NA24% 
SEA Carlos Hyde23%5%25%Positive
DET Kerryon Johnson23%13%NA 
DET Adrian Peterson21%16%NA 
NYJ Ty Johnson21%17%NA 
LA Cam Akers20%13%38%Positive
KC Le'Veon Bell19%0%9% 
WAS J.D. McKissic18%29%13%Negative
ATL Ito Smith17%11%24% 
NO Latavius Murray17%7%24% 
LV Devontae Booker16%14%33% 
CAR Rodney Smith16%8%9% 
BAL Gus Edwards15%8%9% 
NE Cam Newton15%11%18% 
ARI Chase Edmonds15%15%20% 
HOU Deshaun Watson14%13%13% 
LA Darrell Henderson14%13%9% 
CLE Kareem Hunt13%NA29% 
BUF Zack Moss13%NA18% 
SF Jeff Wilson12%17%32%Positive
ATL Brian Hill10%7%17% 
DAL Tony Pollard10%13%25% 
NE James White10%16%10% 
WAS Peyton Barber10%19%31% 
ARI Kyler Murray10%8%14% 
PHI Boston Scott10%13%6% 

 

 


Week 15 Fantasy Usage Model

1. Situational RB Touches (Sunday Night)

2. Targets Aren't Equal (Monday Night)

3. Air Yards Report (Monday Night)

4. Usage Model Notes (Tuesday)

Follow me on Twitter (@HaydenWinks).