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Fantasy Usage Model

Targets Aren't Created Equal: Week 10 Recap

by Hayden Winks
Updated On: November 17, 2020, 4:14 pm ET

Targets aren't created equal for fantasy football. It's easier to complete a pass over the middle compared to near the sideline. As you can see in the chart below, "sideline targets" are worth 1.58 PPR points on average, while "middle targets" are worth 1.83 PPR points, a difference of +0.25 PPR points per target. That can add up.

Air yards -- the distance the ball traveled from the line of scrimmage to the receiver at the catch point -- are also worth tracking. The further downfield a target travels, the more valuable it is. On average, "shallow targets" (under 10 air yards) are worth 1.51 PPR points, while "deep targets" (20+ air yards) are worth 2.07 PPR points, a difference of +0.56 PPR points per target. Once again, that can add up. With this said, deep targets are far more volatile. That means receivers who have a high deep target percentage will be boom-bust fantasy assets. Think prime DeSean Jackson (if you're a Boomer) or Marquise Brown (if you're a Gen Zer like me).

And of course, targets closer to the end zone are worth more because fantasy football is a touchdown-heavy game. Targets from 99 yards away to 21 yards away are worth about 1.5 PPR points on average, but inside the red zone, targets are worth between 1.5 to 4.0 PPR points depending on exactly how far away the team is from the goal-line. "Red zone targets" are worth tracking, as some receivers see slightly higher target shares near the red zone simply because they're bigger and more physical. The real key to predicting red zone targets is just finding receivers with high Vegas implied team totals. 

 


Targets By Type - WRs

This table covers the five target-related stats that I think are actionable: Targets per game over the last four weeks ("Targets"), target share over the last four weeks ("Share"), red zone targets per game over the entire season ("RZ"), percentage of targets over the middle ("Middle %), and percentage of targets going 20+ air yards ("Deep %"). The higher each number, the more valuable the player for fantasy football. Scroll to the right if it's cut off and flip your phone if on mobile.

PlayerTargetsShareRZMiddle %Deep %
1. Davante Adams13.038%2.013%15%
2. Cooper Kupp11.327%0.829%10%
3. Tyreek Hill11.330%1.214%26%
4. Stefon Diggs10.830%0.717%11%
5. Brandon Aiyuk10.731%1.428%12%
6. JuJu Smith-Schuster10.524%1.334%6%
7. Keenan Allen10.527%1.018%11%
8. Tyler Lockett10.326%1.127%15%
9. Diontae Johnson9.823%0.818%17%
10. Tyler Boyd9.323%1.243%4%
11. Terry McLaurin9.325%0.924%14%
12. Jakobi Meyers9.339%0.439%16%
13. DeAndre Hopkins9.026%1.013%13%
14. Jerry Jeudy9.022%0.728%22%
15. Josh Reynolds9.022%0.415%25%
16. Richie James9.026%1.533%22%
17. Robby Anderson8.828%0.820%17%
18. Brandin Cooks8.727%0.629%15%
19. Julio Jones8.725%1.325%16%
20. Chase Claypool8.319%0.825%26%
21. DK Metcalf8.321%1.019%28%
22. D.J. Chark8.025%1.014%26%
23. Sterling Shepard8.024%1.026%7%
24. Anthony Miller7.820%0.842%14%
25. A.J. Green7.719%0.325%25%
26. Travis Fulgham7.722%1.316%12%
27. Tee Higgins7.719%0.931%23%
28. Cole Beasley7.521%0.733%9%
29. Christian Kirk7.322%0.97%26%
30. Jarvis Landry7.331%0.622%11%
31. Allen Robinson7.319%0.729%19%
32. Corey Davis7.327%0.617%6%
33. A.J. Brown7.026%1.029%10%
34. Chris Godwin7.018%0.829%10%
35. John Brown7.019%0.913%19%
36. Michael Gallup7.022%0.611%20%
37. Marvin Jones6.818%1.029%12%
38. Antonio Brown6.517%0.523%23%
39. Darnell Mooney6.517%0.511%30%
40. Jalen Reagor6.519%0.333%24%
41. KJ Hamler6.516%0.545%8%
42. Mike Evans6.517%1.417%13%
43. Michael Thomas6.519%1.728%0%
44. Braxton Berrios6.326%0.418%10%
45. Robert Woods6.315%0.815%13%
46. Tim Patrick6.315%0.823%33%
47. Will Fuller6.320%1.027%18%
48. Curtis Samuel6.320%0.621%13%
49. Amari Cooper6.019%0.919%10%
50. Chris Conley6.019%0.612%17%
51. Denzel Mims6.024%0.728%17%
52. Justin Jefferson6.027%0.322%19%
53. Larry Fitzgerald6.018%0.436%4%
54. Marquez Callaway6.018%0.832%0%
55. Randall Cobb6.019%0.735%7%
56. Willie Snead6.022%0.661%12%
57. Mike Williams5.815%0.911%34%
58. CeeDee Lamb5.718%0.731%19%
59. Greg Ward5.717%0.629%2%
60. Zach Pascal5.715%1.233%13%
61. Calvin Ridley5.516%1.615%28%
62. Kenny Golladay5.515%1.034%22%
63. Adam Thielen5.324%1.315%23%
64. DeVante Parker5.322%0.423%9%
65. Kendrick Bourne5.315%0.820%4%
66. Michael Pittman5.315%0.825%11%
67. Russell Gage5.315%1.125%6%
68. Danny Amendola5.314%0.327%9%
69. D.J. Moore5.317%0.325%20%
70. Darius Slayton5.316%0.823%17%
71. Damiere Byrd5.021%0.115%15%
72. Mecole Hardman5.013%0.133%12%
73. Preston Williams5.021%0.820%29%
74. Scotty Miller4.812%0.37%36%
75. Breshad Perriman4.518%0.613%17%
76. Isaiah Wright4.512%0.515%4%
77. Jeff Smith4.518%0.49%24%
78. Nelson Agholor4.518%0.434%17%
79. Marquise Brown4.316%0.445%33%
80. Rashard Higgins4.318%0.316%16%
81. Auden Tate4.010%0.36%6%
82. DaeSean Hamilton4.010%0.426%15%
83. Jakeem Grant4.017%0.214%7%
84. Marvin Hall4.011%0.339%35%
85. Marcus Johnson4.011%0.221%33%
86. Trent Taylor4.012%1.035%0%

 

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Targets By Type - TEs

This table covers the five target-related stats that I think are actionable: Targets per game over the last four weeks ("Targets"), target share over the last four weeks ("Share"), red zone targets per game over the entire season ("RZ"), percentage of targets over the middle ("Middle %), and percentage of targets going 20+ air yards ("Deep %"). The higher each number, the more valuable the player for fantasy football. Scroll to the right if it's cut off and flip your phone if on mobile.

PlayerTargetsShareRZMiddle %Deep %
1. Travis Kelce9.023%1.426%6%
2. Evan Engram8.024%1.025%3%
3. Darren Waller7.529%1.627%6%
4. Hayden Hurst7.321%0.617%7%
5. T.J. Hockenson7.019%1.430%6%
6. Mark Andrews6.724%1.249%6%
7. Noah Fant6.516%0.832%9%
8. Richard Rodgers6.519%0.222%9%
9. Dalton Schultz6.320%0.631%9%
10. Eric Ebron6.315%1.137%4%
11. Hunter Henry6.015%0.716%7%
12. Gerald Everett5.714%0.320%0%
13. George Kittle5.516%0.739%6%
14. Logan Thomas5.314%0.940%12%
15. Jimmy Graham5.314%1.419%4%
16. Rob Gronkowski5.313%1.131%20%
17. Tyler Higbee5.012%0.419%16%
18. Tyler Eifert4.514%1.034%9%
19. Harrison Bryant4.017%0.438%10%
20. Jared Cook4.012%1.138%9%
21. Jordan Reed4.012%0.838%4%

 


Targets By Team

This table covers the five target-related stats that I think are actionable: Targets per game over the last four weeks ("Targets"), target share over the last four weeks ("Share"), red zone targets per game over the entire season ("RZ"), percentage of targets over the middle ("Middle %), and percentage of targets going 20+ air yards ("Deep %"). The higher each number, the more valuable the player for fantasy football. Scroll to the right if it's cut off and flip your phone if on mobile.

PlayerTargetsShareRZMiddle %Deep %
ARI DeAndre Hopkins9.026%1.013%13%
ARI Christian Kirk7.322%0.97%26%
ARI Larry Fitzgerald6.018%0.436%4%
ARI Chase Edmonds4.313%0.721%3%
ATL Julio Jones8.725%1.325%16%
ATL Hayden Hurst7.321%0.617%7%
ATL Calvin Ridley5.516%1.615%28%
ATL Russell Gage5.315%1.125%6%
BAL Mark Andrews6.724%1.249%6%
BAL Willie Snead6.022%0.661%12%
BAL Marquise Brown4.316%0.445%33%
BUF Stefon Diggs10.830%0.717%11%
BUF Cole Beasley7.521%0.733%9%
BUF John Brown7.019%0.913%19%
CAR Robby Anderson8.828%0.820%17%
CAR Curtis Samuel6.320%0.621%13%
CAR D.J. Moore5.317%0.325%20%
CAR Mike Davis4.514%1.111%0%
CHI Anthony Miller7.820%0.842%14%
CHI Allen Robinson7.319%0.729%19%
CHI Darnell Mooney6.517%0.511%30%
CHI Jimmy Graham5.314%1.419%4%
CHI David Montgomery4.311%0.720%2%
CIN Tyler Boyd9.323%1.243%4%
CIN A.J. Green7.719%0.325%25%
CIN Tee Higgins7.719%0.931%23%
CIN Giovani Bernard5.313%1.06%0%
CIN Auden Tate4.010%0.36%6%
CLE Jarvis Landry7.331%0.622%11%
CLE Rashard Higgins4.318%0.316%16%
CLE Harrison Bryant4.017%0.438%10%
DAL Michael Gallup7.022%0.611%20%
DAL Dalton Schultz6.320%0.631%9%
DAL Amari Cooper6.019%0.919%10%
DAL CeeDee Lamb5.718%0.731%19%
DEN Jerry Jeudy9.022%0.728%22%
DEN Noah Fant6.516%0.832%9%
DEN KJ Hamler6.516%0.545%8%
DEN Tim Patrick6.315%0.823%33%
DEN DaeSean Hamilton4.010%0.426%15%
DET T.J. Hockenson7.019%1.430%6%
DET Marvin Jones6.818%1.029%12%
DET Kenny Golladay5.515%1.034%22%
DET Danny Amendola5.314%0.327%9%
DET D'Andre Swift4.813%0.821%0%
DET Marvin Hall4.011%0.339%35%
GB Davante Adams13.038%2.013%15%
GB Aaron Jones5.516%1.33%10%
GB Jamaal Williams5.015%0.324%3%
HOU Brandin Cooks8.727%0.629%15%
HOU Will Fuller6.320%1.027%18%
HOU Randall Cobb6.019%0.735%7%
IND Zach Pascal5.715%1.233%13%
IND Michael Pittman5.315%0.825%11%
IND Nyheim Hines4.713%0.815%2%
IND Marcus Johnson4.011%0.221%33%
JAX D.J. Chark8.025%1.014%26%
JAX Chris Conley6.019%0.612%17%
JAX Tyler Eifert4.514%1.034%9%
JAX James Robinson4.314%0.418%0%
KC Tyreek Hill11.330%1.214%26%
KC Travis Kelce9.023%1.426%6%
KC Mecole Hardman5.013%0.133%12%
KC Clyde Edwards-Helaire4.010%0.712%0%
LA Cooper Kupp11.327%0.829%10%
LA Josh Reynolds9.022%0.415%25%
LA Robert Woods6.315%0.815%13%
LA Gerald Everett5.714%0.320%0%
LA Tyler Higbee5.012%0.419%16%
LAC Keenan Allen10.527%1.018%11%
LAC Hunter Henry6.015%0.716%7%
LAC Mike Williams5.815%0.911%34%
LAC Justin Jackson5.514%0.311%0%
LAC Kalen Ballage4.512%0.511%0%
LV Darren Waller7.529%1.627%6%
LV Nelson Agholor4.518%0.434%17%
MIA DeVante Parker5.322%0.423%9%
MIA Preston Williams5.021%0.820%29%
MIA Jakeem Grant4.017%0.214%7%
MIN Justin Jefferson6.027%0.322%19%
MIN Adam Thielen5.324%1.315%23%
NE Jakobi Meyers9.339%0.439%16%
NE Damiere Byrd5.021%0.115%15%
NO Alvin Kamara8.826%1.419%4%
NO Michael Thomas6.519%1.728%0%
NO Marquez Callaway6.018%0.832%0%
NO Jared Cook4.012%1.138%9%
NYG Evan Engram8.024%1.025%3%
NYG Sterling Shepard8.024%1.026%7%
NYG Darius Slayton5.316%0.823%17%
NYJ Braxton Berrios6.326%0.418%10%
NYJ Denzel Mims6.024%0.728%17%
NYJ Breshad Perriman4.518%0.613%17%
NYJ Jeff Smith4.518%0.49%24%
PHI Travis Fulgham7.722%1.316%12%
PHI Richard Rodgers6.519%0.222%9%
PHI Jalen Reagor6.519%0.333%24%
PHI Greg Ward5.717%0.629%2%
PIT JuJu Smith-Schuster10.524%1.334%6%
PIT Diontae Johnson9.823%0.818%17%
PIT Chase Claypool8.319%0.825%26%
PIT Eric Ebron6.315%1.137%4%
SEA Tyler Lockett10.326%1.127%15%
SEA DK Metcalf8.321%1.019%28%
SF Brandon Aiyuk10.731%1.428%12%
SF Richie James9.026%1.533%22%
SF George Kittle5.516%0.739%6%
SF Kendrick Bourne5.315%0.820%4%
SF Jordan Reed4.012%0.838%4%
SF Trent Taylor4.012%1.035%0%
TB Chris Godwin7.018%0.829%10%
TB Antonio Brown6.517%0.523%23%
TB Mike Evans6.517%1.417%13%
TB Leonard Fournette5.514%0.620%0%
TB Rob Gronkowski5.313%1.131%20%
TB Scotty Miller4.812%0.37%36%
TEN Corey Davis7.327%0.617%6%
TEN A.J. Brown7.026%1.029%10%
WAS J.D. McKissic10.327%0.824%2%
WAS Terry McLaurin9.325%0.924%14%
WAS Logan Thomas5.314%0.940%12%
WAS Isaiah Wright4.512%0.515%4%

 


The Fantasy Usage Model: Week 11

Part 1: High Value RB Touches (Sunday Night)

Part 2: Targets Aren’t Created Equal (Monday Night)

Part 3: Air Yards Report (Monday Night)

Part 4: Fantasy Usage Model Notes (Tuesday)

My Twitter: @HaydenWinks