Fantasy Usage Model

Usage Model Notes: Is Keenan A Top 5 WR?

by Hayden Winks
Updated On: November 4, 2020, 1:04 am ET

“The Fantasy Usage Model” simply is how many PPR fantasy points an average NFL player in an average NFL offense would’ve scored with the same exact opportunity. Read Targets Aren’t Created Equal and Carries Aren’t Created Equal if you want to see the type of variables that go into this model, but think air yards, relation to the sideline, yards from the end zone, and scheme indicator metrics. It’s a “Buy Low Model” (shoutout to the great Josh Hermsmeyer). To make things better, I manually clean the data each week with things I can adjust for that a computer wouldn’t know about (i.e. removing early-injury games) because the data is only as good as the context that comes with it. If you have questions, reach out to me on Twitter (@HaydenWinks)

Top 5 Rebound Candidates of Week 9

1. Jerry Jeudy (@ ATL)

2. Leonard Fournette (vs. NO)

3. Robby Anderson (@ KC)

4. D'Andre Swift (@ MIN)

5. Josh Jacobs (@ LAC)

Fantasy Usage Model - WRs

Average expected PPR points and PPR data from the last four weeks. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

PlayerFantasy UsagePPR Per GameContext
Davante AdamsWR1 (23.0)WR1 (29.0)32.1, 14.3, 29.0, & 25.8 xFPs in healthy games.
DK MetcalfWR2 (20.2)WR3 (23.9)Leading WRs in air yards P/G (122) in last 4.
Keenan AllenWR3 (18.8)WR5 (22.1)22.2 xFPs P/G in 5 healthy Herbert games.
Tyler LockettWR4 (18.7)WR4 (22.9)Most volatile fantasy usage week to week. WR1.
Jamison CrowderWR5 (18.3)WR14 (18.7)Removed Weeks 7-8 & groins can linger. WR2.
Travis FulghamWR6 (18.2)WR10 (20.7)xFPs P/G: Weeks 5-8 (20.3), Week 9 (11.8).
Julio JonesWR7 (18.0)WR2 (24.0)Top-5 WR with or without Ridley (foot).
Terry McLaurinWR8 (17.6)WR33 (14.0)10.0 targets, 34% share in last 4 weeks. WR2.
Brandin CooksWR9 (17.5)WR7 (21.6)Target share since Wk 5: BC (27%), WF (23%).
Tyler BoydWR10 (17.5)WR18 (17.0)46% of targets are over the middle. That's elite.
Cooper KuppWR11 (17.2)WR31 (15.0)WR1/2 usage on career-low 7.3 YPT. WR2.
Corey DavisWR12 (17.2)WR8 (21.2)WR2 usage recently but was a WR5/6 for a year.
Stefon DiggsWR13 (17.1)WR28 (15.8)3rd in targets per game (11.0) in last 4 weeks.
Sterling ShepardWR14 (16.5)WR22 (16.7)Was NYG's No. 1 in 2019. Is the No. 1 in 2020.
Diontae JohnsonWR15 (16.1)WR30 (15.3)Only includes Wk 7-8. Boom-bust WR3. Health?
Will FullerWR16 (15.4)WR17 (17.5)3rd in air yards P/G (116) in last 4. Upside WR2.
A.J. GreenWR17 (15.1)WR38 (12.2)WR2 usage on WR5 legs. Volatile top-36 WR.
Allen RobinsonWR18 (15.1)WR16 (17.7)102 air yards P/G as low-end WR1 despite QB.
D.J. CharkWR19 (15.0)WR87 (6.6)8th in air yards P/G (111) in last 4. Backup QB.
Calvin RidleyWR20 (14.7)WR12 (19.5)Removed Week 8 (foot). Volatile WR1/2 with JJ.
Adam ThielenWR21 (14.4)WR24 (16.4)Only had 8 air yards Week 8. Volatile WR2.
A.J. BrownWR22 (14.0)WR9 (20.9)Efficiency outlier on low-end WR2 usage.
DeAndre HopkinsWR23 (13.8)WR11 (20.2)Seeing hardest targets possible but still a WR1.
Chris GodwinWR24 (13.8)WR19 (16.8)WR2/3 usage even without AB. Upside WR3?
CeeDee LambWR25 (13.6)WR50 (10.6)xFPs per game: With Dak (14.7), without (9.0).
Robby AndersonWR26 (13.3)WR34 (13.5)29% target share in last 4 weeks. WR2/3.
Robert WoodsWR27 (13.2)WR6 (22.0)Only a 18% target share but gets carries. WR3.
Jarvis LandryWR28 (13.2)WR56 (9.9)Banged up but season-high 44% share Week 8.
Marquez CallawayWR29 (13.1)WR45 (11.5)Will be unusable when Thomas/Sanders return.
JuJu Smith-SchusterWR30 (12.8)WR53 (10.2)Low-floor flex with Diontae. A sad 5.6 aDOT.
Chase ClaypoolWR31 (12.8)WR13 (19.4)Treated as No. 1 WR by defenses. Volatile WR3.
Brandon AiyukWR32 (12.8)WR32 (14.3)Season-high 22.4 xFPs Week 8 without Deebo.
Tee HigginsWR33 (12.6)WR29 (15.5)7.5 targets, 94 air yards in last 4 games. WR3.
Marquise BrownWR34 (12.4)WR37 (12.3)6 air yards in Week 8 was very disappointing.
Jakobi MeyersWR35 (12.1)WR48 (11.0)9.7 & 14.4 expected fantasy points in last 2.
Kenny GolladayWR36 (12.0)WR27 (16.0)Out weeks.
Marvin JonesWR37 (12.0)WR42 (11.6)xFPs P/G: With Kenny (7.2), without (13.4).
Darius SlaytonWR38 (11.8)WR41 (11.9)5.7 & 14.0 xFPs in 2 games with Shepard back.
Josh ReynoldsWR39 (11.6)WR61 (9.0)17% target share in last 4 games. WR5 dart.
D.J. MooreWR40 (11.6)WR23 (16.6)Career-high 10.5 YPT hiding WR3 usage. Sell?
Randall CobbWR41 (11.6)WR36 (13.0)Under 10.0 xFPs in 6-of-7 games. PPR WR5.
Christian KirkWR42 (11.5)WR15 (18.7)NFL-high 97% of targets near the sideline.
Deebo SamuelWR43 (11.4)WR44 (11.5)Out weeks.
Tyreek HillWR44 (11.2)WR21 (16.8)Efficiency outlier (9.9 YPT) as low-end WR1.
Amari CooperWR45 (11.0)WR51 (10.5)xFPs per game: With Dak (17.9), without (8.8).
Curtis SamuelWR46 (10.9)WR20 (16.8)Still only a 19% target share in last 4. WR4/5.
Tim PatrickWR47 (10.8)WR49 (10.8)16.0 aDOT as Denver's deep threat if healthy.
Justin JeffersonWR48 (10.7)WR26 (16.2)6.7 targets, 67 air yards in last 4. Volatile WR2/3.
Mike WilliamsWR49 (10.7)WR25 (16.3)LAC top-5 in neutral pass rate in two straight.
Cole BeasleyWR50 (10.5)WR35 (13.1)7.4 aDOT, 47 air yards per game. PPR WR4/5.
Jerry JeudyWR51 (10.5)WR85 (6.8)Led Week 8 in air yards with Patrick out. WR4/5.
Jalen ReagorWR52 (10.3)WR39 (12.2)22% target share in Week 8. Upside WR4.
Keelan ColeWR53 (10.3)WR47 (11.1) 
Michael GallupWR54 (10.2)WR81 (7.2)2nd in targets near the sideline (94%). WR5/6.
Jeff SmithWR55 (10.1)WR114 (3.3) 
Darnell MooneyWR56 (9.8)WR43 (11.5)105 air yards per game in last 4. No-floor WR5.
Larry FitzgeraldWR57 (9.8)WR63 (9.0)I'd bench him for Andy, but I'm not an NFL coach.
Laviska ShenaultWR58 (9.7)WR65 (8.8)16% target share and now with a backup QB.
Anthony MillerWR59 (9.3)WR52 (10.3)Season-high 18.0 xFPs in Week 8. Still a WR5/6.
Mike EvansWR60 (9.2)WR57 (9.8)10.7 xFPs per game on season. Now adding AB.
Zach PascalWR61 (9.2)WR66 (8.8) 
Denzel MimsWR62 (9.1)WR80 (7.2)WR5/6 usage. Crowder returning soon?
Breshad PerrimanWR63 (8.9)WR79 (7.5) 
T.Y. HiltonWR64 (8.9)WR91 (6.0)Career-low 5.6 YPT. Now injured.
Greg WardWR65 (8.6)WR62 (9.0) 
Braxton BerriosWR66 (8.5)WR92 (5.8) 
Marcus JohnsonWR67 (8.4)WR54 (10.0) 
Nelson AgholorWR68 (8.4)WR40 (12.1)Under 8.5 xFPs in 6-of-7 games. WR6 only.
Kendrick BourneWR69 (7.7)WR69 (8.4)Season-high 17.7 xFPs Week 8 with Deebo out.
DeVante ParkerWR70 (7.6)WR64 (8.9)17% target share in last 4. 1 air yard in Week 8.
Deonte HarrisWR71 (7.6)WR59 (9.7) 
Julian EdelmanWR72 (7.6)WR120 (2.6)Injured reserve.
Preston WilliamsWR73 (7.5)WR46 (11.3)Team-high 75 air yards per game in last 4. WR6.
Tre'Quan SmithWR74 (7.3)WR82 (7.2) 
Russell GageWR75 (7.3)WR77 (7.5) 
Scotty MillerWR76 (7.2)WR72 (7.9) 
Willie SneadWR77 (6.8)WR86 (6.6) 
Gabriel DavisWR78 (6.8)WR107 (3.7) 
John HightowerWR79 (6.7)WR98 (4.2) 
Adam HumphriesWR80 (6.7)WR84 (7.1) 
Demarcus RobinsonWR81 (6.5)WR70 (8.0) 
KJ HamlerWR82 (6.4)WR73 (7.9) 
Collin JohnsonWR83 (6.3)WR83 (7.2) 
David MooreWR84 (6.2)WR78 (7.5) 
Marvin HallWR85 (6.1)WR93 (5.7) 
Jalen GuytonWR86 (6.1)WR74 (7.7) 
Hunter RenfrowWR87 (6.0)WR67 (8.7) 
Trent TaylorWR88 (5.9)WR101 (4.0) 
Mecole HardmanWR89 (5.8)WR60 (9.7)Season-high 13.6 xFPs Week 8. 31-of-47 routes.
DaeSean HamiltonWR90 (5.8)WR75 (7.6) 
Henry RuggsWR91 (5.8)WR58 (9.7)Under 9.0 xFPs in all 4 "healthy" games. WR5.
Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR92 (5.6)WR111 (3.5)Bad at the game. Lazard returning.
Tyler JohnsonWR93 (5.6)WR71 (7.9) 
Rashard HigginsWR94 (5.6)WR55 (10.0)2.9 xFPs & 12% target share in Week 8. WR6.
Cedrick WilsonWR95 (5.3)WR124 (2.0) 
Danny AmendolaWR96 (5.3)WR76 (7.6) 
Isaiah WrightWR97 (5.2)WR102 (4.0) 
James WashingtonWR98 (5.2)WR94 (5.6) 
Damiere ByrdWR99 (5.1)WR95 (5.4) 
Golden TateWR100 (5.0)WR68 (8.6)Droppable in 12-team leagues.


Editor’s Note: Unlock the brand new League Sync! Keep track of all your Yahoo! teams in one place and use our Trade Analyzer, Free Agent Finder, Lineup Adviser and custom projections to make all the right roster decisions!  Get all of our Season Tools, League Sync AND DFS Tools for as low as $7.99/month!

Fantasy Usage Model - TEs

Average expected PPR points and PPR data from the last four weeks. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

PlayerFantasy UsagePPR Per GameContext
Travis KelceTE1 (15.5)TE1 (19.8)Has 2x the PPR points of the TE12 this season.
T.J. HockensonTE2 (14.2)TE6 (13.4)15.9, 11.3, & 15.2 xFPs in 3 games post-bye.
Darren WallerTE3 (13.3)TE4 (13.5)25% target share (2nd) in last 4 weeks. The TE2.
Rob GronkowskiTE4 (13.2)TE2 (14.6)17% target share in last 4 likely to drop. TE1/2.
Austin HooperTE5 (12.5)TE8 (10.5)13.0, 16.2, & 8.7 xFPs before surgery. TE1.
Noah FantTE6 (12.4)TE16 (9.3)At least 9.7 xFPs in all six healthy games. TE1.
Mark AndrewsTE7 (11.3)TE14 (9.3)22% target share is a disappointment. Still TE1.
Evan EngramTE8 (11.3)TE13 (9.4)3rd in routes. Usage trending up. Low-end TE1.
Jimmy GrahamTE9 (11.0)TE27 (6.8)TE1/2 usage. TD-dependent in horrible offense.
Trey BurtonTE10 (11.0)TE5 (13.4)Only 15-of-37 routes Week 8 but schemed open.
Hunter HenryTE11 (10.1)TE20 (8.3)LAC top-5 in neutral pass rate in two straight.
Eric EbronTE12 (9.8)TE12 (9.5)TD-dependent on 17% target share. TE2.
Albert OkwuegbunamTE13 (9.2)TE17 (9.1)Only 15-of-48 routes Week 8 with Fant healthy.
Jared CookTE14 (9.2)TE3 (13.8)Season-high 13.0 xFPs Week 8 without MT/ES.
Hayden HurstTE15 (9.2)TE9 (10.4)2nd in TE routes. 6.0 targets per game in last 4.
Ross DwelleyTE16 (8.5)TE19 (8.6)Season-high 8.5 xFPs Week 8. Jordan Reed?
Anthony FirkserTE17 (8.4)TE11 (9.6)Off the radar when Jonnu is healthy.
Jonnu SmithTE18 (8.4)TE15 (9.3)8.3 & 2.9 xFPs in last 2 with AJB & CD balling.
Gerald EverettTE19 (7.8)TE18 (8.8)Week 8 routes: Everett (29), Higbee (24). TE2/3.
Dalton SchultzTE20 (7.5)TE28 (6.2)TE2 usage as backup TE with backup QB.
Logan ThomasTE21 (7.0)TE10 (10.2)Produced but 7.9 & 7.1 xFPs in last 2 games.
Irv SmithTE22 (6.7)TE22 (7.5)15-of-18 Week 8 routes with low-end TE2 usage.
Tyler EifertTE23 (6.6)TE54 (2.3) 
Robert TonyanTE24 (6.2)TE21 (7.9)26-of-50 Week 8 routes. TDs only with Adams.
Mike GesickiTE25 (6.1)TE32 (5.3)Slot WR Ford trade improves Gesicki's outlook.
Greg OlsenTE26 (5.5)TE56 (2.3) 
Darren FellsTE27 (5.4)TE7 (11.4) 
Jace SternbergerTE28 (5.2)TE23 (7.5) 
Harrison BryantTE29 (4.9)TE24 (7.3)23-of-30 Week 8 routes. Hooper returning. Drop.
Durham SmytheTE30 (4.9)TE31 (5.5) 
Richard RodgersTE31 (4.9)TE29 (5.9) 
Tyler HigbeeTE32 (4.8)TE33 (5.1)30th in TE routes in 2020.
Jack DoyleTE33 (4.7)TE25 (7.2) 
Will DisslyTE34 (4.3)TE30 (5.8) 
Cameron BrateTE35 (4.2)TE34 (4.5) 


Fantasy Usage Model - RBs

Average expected PPR points and PPR data from the last four weeks. I’ve removed injuries and noted other adjustments.

PlayerFantasy UsagePPR Per GameContext
Alvin KamaraRB1 (22.9)RB3 (22.7)18.9+ xFPs in all 7 games. 126-catch pace.
Dalvin CookRB2 (22.4)RB1 (34.3)The RB2 overall moving forward.
Myles GaskinRB3 (22.0)RB7 (17.3)The Fantasy Usage Model hero is going to IR.
Joe MixonRB4 (21.8)RB15 (15.2)24.0 xFPs P/G in last 3 healthy games.
David MontgomeryRB5 (21.2)RB17 (14.4)Knock his speed all you want. RB1 usage. RB2.
Josh JacobsRB6 (19.9)RB20 (13.8)Touch shares: Leading (55%), trailing (15%).
James RobinsonRB7 (19.2)RB5 (19.0)xFPs P/G: With Thompson (14.9), without (23.5).
David JohnsonRB8 (18.8)RB16 (14.9)All 18 touches in Week 7 came in 1st/2nd down.
Derrick HenryRB9 (18.6)RB2 (23.0)Pacing for 368 carries. Is that sustainable?
Leonard FournetteRB10 (18.5)RB26 (12.9)21.4 & 15.7 xFPs in last 2. RoJo keeps fumbling.
James ConnerRB11 (17.9)RB11 (15.4)RB1/2 usage in near bellcow role.
Todd GurleyRB12 (17.8)RB8 (16.9)Iffy speed but 13.4+ xFPs in all 8 games. RB1/2.
DeeJay DallasRB13 (17.7)RB21 (13.8)xFPs: Week 7 (4.6), Week 8 (30.8).
Ezekiel ElliottRB14 (16.6)RB24 (13.5)xFPs P/G: Weeks 1-6 (24.2), Weeks 7-8 (12.1).
Darrell HendersonRB15 (16.5)RB29 (12.5)Removed Week 8. Early-down RB2/3.
Mike DavisRB16 (16.4)RB14 (15.2)Quality RB1/2 fill in for CMC. Insurance only now.
Kareem HuntRB17 (16.3)RB23 (13.6)Chubb could be back Week 10, meaning RB2/3.
Kenyan DrakeRB18 (16.0)RB10 (15.6)Pure runner on bad ankle if he's a surprise active.
Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB19 (15.8)RB27 (12.8)Season-low 9.4 xFPs Week 8. Still the 1A.
Jamaal WilliamsRB20 (15.8)RB22 (13.7)RB1 run likely over. Elite insurance. Bench hold.
Devonta FreemanRB21 (15.7)RB32 (11.7)Was seeing RB2 usage before injury. Gallman?
D'Andre SwiftRB22 (15.6)RB9 (15.8)Week 8 snaps: Swift (38/61), AP (12), KJ (11).
Melvin GordonRB23 (14.6)RB25 (13.4)Lindsay only a pure rusher. Gordon is a RB2/3.
Ronald JonesRB24 (14.5)RB12 (15.2)RB3 usage with Fournette. Fumbled Week 8.
Justin JacksonRB25 (13.9)RB19 (14.0)Inconsistent RB3 with Kelley and Pope involved.
Antonio GibsonRB26 (13.8)RB28 (12.8)Post-Bye Rookie Bump? Was a pure runner only.
Giovani BernardRB27 (13.1)RB18 (14.2)Low-end RB1 insurance when Mixon misses.
Jonathan TaylorRB28 (13.0)RB31 (12.0)Having Trent Richardson-like season. RB2/3.
Miles SandersRB29 (12.8)RB4 (21.1)Should return to top-8 RB levels following bye.
Raheem MostertRB30 (11.9)RB30 (12.3)Injured reserve. Coleman, Wilson both hurt.
Boston ScottRB31 (11.1)RB42 (7.8)Low-end RB1 insurance when Sanders misses.
Chase EdmondsRB32 (10.4)RB13 (15.2)RB1 if Drake misses. Outplaying him in general.
Joshua KelleyRB33 (10.3)RB51 (6.2)Week 8 snaps: JJ (41), Pope (25), Kelley (21).
Gus EdwardsRB34 (10.3)RB39 (8.6)All 17 Week 8 touches on 1st/2nd down. RB3.
Nyheim HinesRB35 (10.1)RB33 (11.3)2 TDs in Week 8 but only 11.9 xFPs. PPR RB3.
J.D. McKissicRB36 (10.1)RB35 (10.8)Could lose passing role to Gibson post-bye.
Alexander MattisonRB37 (9.9)RB46 (7.1) 
Jeff WilsonRB38 (9.4)RB6 (17.4) 
J.K. DobbinsRB39 (9.0)RB38 (8.8)1st in YAC, broken tackles per carry, YPC. RB3.
Devin SingletaryRB40 (8.9)RB49 (6.7)Only seeing 2.3 "high value touches" per game.
Latavius MurrayRB41 (8.8)RB48 (6.8) 
Lamical PerineRB42 (8.7)RB41 (8.1) 
Phillip LindsayRB43 (8.4)RB34 (11.2) 
Malcolm BrownRB44 (8.3)RB53 (6.0) 
JaMycal HastyRB45 (8.1)RB44 (7.4) 
James WhiteRB46 (8.1)RB45 (7.4) 
Zack MossRB47 (8.1)RB36 (10.4)Week 8 xFPs: Moss (14.5), Singletary (8.3).
Troymaine PopeRB48 (8.0)RB43 (7.6) 
Tony PollardRB49 (7.9)RB58 (5.7) 
Wayne GallmanRB50 (7.8)RB40 (8.5)14.3 & 9.9 xFPs in two games without Freeman.
Adrian PetersonRB51 (7.5)RB50 (6.3) 
Brian HillRB52 (7.2)RB47 (6.8) 
Samaje PerineRB53 (7.2)RB54 (6.0) 
Chris ThompsonRB54 (6.9)RB56 (5.9) 
Damien HarrisRB55 (6.7)RB37 (9.5)Only NE RB with inside-10 touch Week 8. RB3.
Duke JohnsonRB56 (6.7)RB62 (4.7) 
Le'Veon BellRB57 (6.1)RB60 (5.4)Week 8 snaps: Edwards-Helaire (33), Bell (17).
Jerick McKinnonRB58 (6.0)RB61 (5.3)We're tired. He's tired. Only 10.0 xFPs Week 8.
Jeremy McNicholsRB59 (6.0)RB65 (4.4) 
Frank GoreRB60 (6.0)RB57 (5.8) 
Jordan WilkinsRB61 (5.5)RB52 (6.1)Season-high 14.1 xFPs Week 8. Better than JT?


The Fantasy Usage Model: Week 9

Part 1: High-Value RB Touches (Sunday Night)

Part 2: Targets Aren’t Created Equal (Monday Night)

Part 3: Air Yards Report (Monday Night)

Part 4: Fantasy Usage Model Notes (Tuesday)

My Twitter: @HaydenWinks