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Davante Adams
Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
Football Daily Dose

Regression Candidates and a MNF Preview

by Hayden Winks
Updated On: November 4, 2019, 1:32 pm ET

Positive Regression Candidates

These pass-catchers had a lot more usage (targets and/or air yards) than they did production. Usage often leads to future production, so pay attention to these buy-low players: D.J. Chark led the week in unaccounted for air yards (air yards minus receiving yards) by only posting a 4-32-0 receiving line on 117 air yards and nine targets. … Nelson Agholor had 106 air yards but only 21 receiving yards. Classic Agholor. … Allen Robinson only posted 1-6-0 but did have five targets and 87 air yards. … Davante Adams returned and was used frequently, seeing 111 air yards and 11 targets. Adams’ 7-41-0 receiving line was disappointing all things considered. … Alshon Jeffery had 103 air yards and eight targets, but finished with four receptions and 36 yards. … Chris Conley had seven targets and 96 air yards, yet he only had 32 receiving yards. … Jarvis Landry had a good fantasy game (6-51-1), but he did have 13 targets so still somewhat disappointing.


Had A “Lucky” Game

These pass-catchers had a lot more production than their usage would suggest. Perhaps these receivers are just abnormally good, but most of these guys just got lucky: Noah Fant, one of my favorite 2019 prospects, busted out a 75-yard touchdown by breaking multiple tackles, but he was only targeted four times with 45 air yards. Fant remains a boom-or-bust TE2, although he has upside on talent alone. … Andy Isabella, also one of my favorite 2019 prospects, had an 88-yard touchdown, but he was still a part-time receiver and only had one target. Kliff Kingsbury, please play Isabella. … Mike Williams has been a buy low for weeks, so he, of course, had his first 100-yard game when he only had 47 air yards and four targets. Williams is still due for positive touchdown regression, but he was lucky to have 111 yards in Week 9. 

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Not Bad For A Quarterback

Lamar Jackson was one of the best, most unique college football quarterbacks of all time. He was an efficient passer (8.7 and 8.5 yards per attempt in his last two seasons) and was arguably the greatest rushing quarterback ever. As a 19-year old at Louisville, Jackson had 1,571 rushing yards and 21 rushing touchdowns. And he followed that Heisman season with 1,601 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns. Basically, he was a more efficient and more productive rusher than Saquon Barkley, who went No. 2 overall in Jackson’s draft. Insane. The fact LJ was dragged by old-timers during the draft process was so unfair. Calling him a receiver or a running back was insulting. Jackson, you know, was a top-five quarterback in the predictive Total QBR metric in back-to-back seasons. Maybe, just maybe, a quarterback that productive and that athletic was worth spending an earlier first-round pick on. There are only a few quarterbacks with the upside to win Super Bowls, and Jackson was clearly one of the few with that had it. Now, we get to see Jackson begin a potential Super Bowl run, and he's only in his age-22 season.

 

MVP Candidates and the Playoff Picture

MVP Candidates: Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, and Dak Prescott. Everyone else is playing catch up at this point. … AFC: 1. Patriots (8-1) 2. Ravens (6-2) 3. Texans (6-3) 4. Chiefs (6-3) 5. Bills (6-2) 6. Colts (5-3) with the Steelers (4-4), Raiders (4-4), Jaguars (4-5), Titans (4-5), and Chargers (4-5) in the hunt. … NFC: 1. 49ers (8-0) 2. Saints (7-1) 3. Packers (7-2) 4. Cowboys (4-3) 5. Seahawks (6-2) 6. Vikings (6-3) with the Rams (5-3), Panthers (5-3), Eagles (5-4), and Lions (3-4-1) in the hunt.

 

Updated Monday Night Football Preview

Read the full Week 9 Fantasy Football Forecast here.

Cowboys (27.5, -7) @ NYG

Forecast: Dak Prescott QB1, Ezekiel Elliott RB1, Amari Cooper WR1, Michael Gallup WR3, Randall Cobb WR5, Jason Witten TE2

Dak Prescott is leading or amongst the leaders in every single advanced passing metric, and he now catches the Giants, who are fifth-lowest in PFF’s team pass coverage grade. Prescott has absolutely torched New York the last two times they matched up, tossing four touchdowns and at least 387 yards in each game. Vegas projects Dallas to score the second-most points of the week (27.75), so it’s easy to see why I’m listing Prescott as a top-four quarterback this week. … Ezekiel Elliott is also in a smash spot as a 7.5-point favorite against an average run defense. Zeke is also quietly seeing more work as a pass-catcher (6, 2, 5, and 6 receptions in the last four games), which was the missing ingredient to getting back into the elite RB1 mix. 

Amari Cooper should be much healthier after the bye than he was in the previous two games. For all of the same reasons as I just laid out for Dak, Amari is a no-brainer WR1 with tons of upside. The Giants are in the bottom 12th percentile at stopping opposing fantasy receivers, preventing 20+ yard pass plays, and in pass defense DVOA. Cooper is a long touchdown candidate, and he usually 7-10 targets when he’s healthy, so the floor is nice as well. … Michael Gallup fell victim to Dak only attempting 27 passes in Week 7, but he’s otherwise been a strong WR2/3 option with a weekly ceiling. The last time Gallup played New York, he caught all seven of his targets for 158 yards. Gallup, like Amari, is a threat for a deep touchdown this week. He’s a fine WR2/3. … Randall Cobb isn’t a full-time route runner and he’s been held to two or three receptions in each of the last four games. Cobb is a forgettable WR5. … Jason Witten’s usage has been extremely steady this season; he has exactly four targets in 6-of-7 games. That, however, is only enough to be on the streaming radar as a touchdown-or-bust option. The Giants are in the top 10th percentile against tight ends, so Witten is a standard zero-floor TE2. 

 

Giants (20.5, +7) vs. DAL

Forecast: Daniel Jones QB2, Saquon Barkley RB1, Golden Tate WR3, Darius Slayton WR5, Evan Engram TE1

Daniel Jones has been turnover prone (7 INTs, 8 fumbles) and very inconsistent as a passer. Last week, Jones lit up the box score in garbage time, but we shouldn’t expect that to happen this week against a better Cowboys Defense. Dallas is likely to be running out the clock in the second half as 7.5-point favorites and is already inside the top 10th percentile against fantasy quarterbacks. Jones is a low-end QB2/3 who likely needs to run to be a worthwhile streamer. … Saquon Barkley had a very Saquon Barkley game last week, rushing for 64 yards while adding 8-79-1 as a receiver. That usage and his generational talent make him an elite RB1 this week. In three career games against Dallas, Saquon has averaged 86 rushing yards and 7.3 receptions. 

Sterling Shepard practiced this week and was expected to play until he re-entered the concussion protocol. Shepard will miss another game, so expect Golden Tate to stay very involved as the Giants' No. 1 receiver. In the last three games, Tate has 9, 11, and 10 targets with over 50 air yards in each game. That level of usage probably shouldn't be expected this week given the opponent, but Tate is projected for 6-9 targets as a fantasy WR3. ... Darius Slayton will be a dart throw option with Shepard sidelined. Slayton has the athleticism to win as a deep threat (16.7 YPR), making him a decent tournament option for DFS Showdown on Monday night. ... Evan Engram has 5-8 targets in most games this season, but he's been up-and-down in the box score. Historically speaking, this is a matchup that Engram can win. In his last three games against Dallas, Engram has averaged 7.6-88-1, and the Cowboys are in the bottom 12th percentile against fantasy tight ends in 2019. Engram is clearly a TE1 in redraft.