Going Deep

Yards After the Catch Regression Candidates

by Hayden Winks

May 3, 2020, 6:23 pm ET

Updated On: May 4, 2020, 1:07 am ET

Yards after the catch aren’t created equal. A dump off to a running back behind the line of scrimmage goes for a lot more yards after the catch than a pass 15 yards down the field, so using blanket yards after the catch stats to argue how explosive a player is doesn't tell the whole story. That’s why I created a yards after catch model that adjusts for air yards. The model knows that a reception behind the line of scrimmage should gain more yards than one down the field. Here are the 2019 results:

2019 YAC Over Expected

These players exceeded expectations for yards after the catch, which means these players are 1) truly elite, or 2) negative regression candidates for the 2020 season.

Rank	Player	YAC	Expected YAC	YAC +/-
1	Austin Ekeler	939	663	276
2	A.J. Brown	465	250	215
3	Christian McCaffrey	991	809	182
4	Dalvin Cook	591	411	180
5	Chris Godwin	577	429	148
6	Deebo Samuel	473	330	143
7	Mecole Hardman	292	157	135
8	George Kittle	598	475	123
9	Darren Waller	578	467	111
10	Noah Fant	330	223	107

Austin Ekeler is due for major negative regression as a receiver in 2020. He led the NFL in yards after the catch over expected by picking up 939 yards after the catch when he was expected to pick up 663 yards after the catch based on the depth of all of his targets. Of course, Ekeler is actually better than the average player, so he should outperform my model, but not by 276 yards. Expect his YAC total to drop by at least 200 yards this upcoming season even if he remains a stud playmaker.

Most of the players on this top-10 list are running backs and tight ends, but A.J. Brown checks in as the second-biggest negative regression candidate after absolutely shredding defenses as a rookie. Brown is obviously very explosive and strong, so he should be an above-average player after the catch, but not even Tyreek Hill can sustain the YAC numbers Brown put up last season (465 yards after the catch). Brown’s league-leading yards per target (12.5) should regress to more normal levels with regression coming.

Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook are both great running backs in space, so we should expect them to outpace the rest of the players after the catch, but even they are set for slight regression in the receiving yards department. McCaffrey will probably settle in closer to 850 receiving yards instead of the 1,005 he had last season. That’s still more than enough to finish as the RB1 overall in fantasy.

2019 YAC Under Expected

These players under performed compared to expectations for yards after the catch, which means these players are 1) dusty, or 2) positive regression candidates for the 2020 season.

Rank	Player	YAC	Expected YAC	YAC +/-
1	Allen Robinson	272	472	-200
2	Marvin Jones	106	276	-170
3	Zach Ertz	255	407	-152
4	Calvin Ridley	138	284	-146
5	DeAndre Hopkins	387	526	-139
6	Julian Edelman	330	469	-139
7	Jason Witten	162	293	-131
8	Tyler Lockett	301	431	-130
9	Curtis Samuel	153	277	-124
10	Keenan Allen	364	488	-124
11	Tarik Cohen	420	544	-124
12	Julio Jones	342	460	-118
13	John Brown	210	326	-116
14	Michael Thomas	579	690	-111
15	Tyler Boyd	348	458	-110

Allen Robinson is good at football, so I was surprised to see him at the top of this under-performers list, but it makes sense on second thought. Robinson gets fewer opportunities to pick up yards after the catch because he’s constantly having to adjust to inaccurate passes from Mitchell Trubisky or whoever else the Bears trot out at quarterback instead of exploding upfield with the ball coming to his hands. Even with the expected poor quarterback play coming his way, Robinson should pick up far more yards after the catch in 2020, making him a positive regression candidate this season at least in the yardage department.

Marvin Jones is a perfect example of someone just being unlucky for no fault of his own. Jones isn’t a crazy athlete at this point in his career, but he’s plenty capable of picking up yards after the catch. In 2020, he should be healthier, have Matthew Stafford for more games, and regress back to the YAC mean. Jones is a positive regression candidate.

Zach Ertz and Jason Witten are not positive regression candidates. They fall into the “dusty” category, especially Witten who should be serving as a coach or announcer at this point. Ertz is still a reliable underneath target, but he’s not a yards after the catch threat at all. His lack of YAC has gotten so bad that there’s this twitter account:

Calvin Ridley, like Robinson, is good at football and by no means should be on this under-performers list. Ridley was already ready to explode with the Falcons leaving behind the most available targets in the NFL, and now there’s even more reasons to buy Ridley. He’s a positive YAC regression candidate after only picking up 138 yards after the catch when my model expected him to have 284 based on his usage in 2019. I bet he’ll have more than 300 yards after the catch this upcoming season.

2019 Yards After The Catch Leaders

Scroll right to view the entire table.

Rank	Player	Team	YAC	Expected YAC	YAC +/-
1	C.McCaffrey	CAR	991	809	182
2	A.Ekeler	LAC	939	663	276
3	G.Kittle	SF	598	475	123
4	D.Cook	MIN	591	411	180
5	M.Thomas	NO	579	690	-111
6	D.Waller	OAK	578	467	111
7	C.Godwin	TB	577	429	148
8	R.Woods	LA	576	520	56
9	L.Fournette	JAX	558	551	7
10	A.Kamara	NO	557	573	-16
11	C.Kupp	LA	538	484	54
12	J.White	NE	530	467	63
13	D.Samuel	SF	473	330	143
14	A.Brown	TEN	465	250	215
15	L.Bell	NYJ	440	460	-20
16	J.Landry	CLE	439	420	19
17	S.Barkley	NYG	438	379	59
18	A.Jones	GB	437	358	79
19	T.Cohen	CHI	420	544	-124
20	M.Sanders	PHI	413	355	58
21	T.Kelce	KC	412	455	-43
22	D.Williams	KC	409	343	66
23	E.Elliott	DAL	395	374	21
24	D.Adams	GB	388	430	-42
25	D.Hopkins	HOU	387	526	-139
26	D.Moore	CAR	384	410	-26
27	T.Higbee	LA	384	350	34
28	J.Samuels	PIT	366	360	6
29	K.Allen	LAC	364	488	-124
30	D.Johnson	HOU	361	293	68
31	J.Crowder	NYJ	353	394	-41
32	C.Sutton	DEN	352	342	10
33	T.Boyd	CIN	348	458	-110
34	D.Freeman	ATL	344	376	-32
35	L.Fitzgerald	ARI	343	418	-75
36	J.Jones	ATL	342	460	-118
37	C.Thompson	WAS	337	276	61
38	A.Hooper	ATL	335	382	-47
39	D.Goedert	PHI	334	322	12
40	M.Gallup	DAL	333	283	50
41	J.Mixon	CIN	331	267	64
42	J.Edelman	NE	330	469	-139
43	C.Beasley	BUF	330	312	18
44	N.Fant	DEN	330	223	107
45	R.Cobb	DAL	329	274	55
46	O.Beckham	CLE	324	358	-34
47	M.Gordon	LAC	321	306	15
48	N.Chubb	CLE	318	268	50
49	D.Chark	JAX	316	378	-62
50	D.Westbrook	JAX	313	377	-64
51	C.Carson	SEA	313	282	31
52	N.Hines	IND	311	295	16
53	K.Golladay	DET	304	305	-1
54	T.Lockett	SEA	301	431	-130
55	S.Diggs	MIN	298	304	-6
56	J.Conner	PIT	298	261	37
57	D.Johnson	PIT	293	311	-18
58	M.Hardman	KC	292	157	135
59	M.Andrews	BAL	291	301	-10
60	S.Watkins	KC	291	255	36
61	H.Renfrow	OAK	288	235	53
62	R.Jones	TB	287	199	88
63	C.Kirk	ARI	286	372	-86
64	L.Murray	NO	284	263	21
65	T.Hill	KC	280	313	-33
66	J.Williams	GB	279	286	-7
67	G.Tate	NYG	278	242	36
68	D.Metcalf	SEA	276	292	-16
69	K.Hunt	CLE	276	262	14
70	B.Scott	PHI	273	206	67
71	J.Smith	TEN	273	196	77
72	A.Robinson	CHI	272	472	-200
73	D.Parker	MIA	263	321	-58
74	M.Evans	TB	261	306	-45
75	K.Drake	ARI	261	246	15
76	R.Freeman	DEN	259	298	-39
77	Z.Ertz	PHI	255	407	-152
78	J.Cook	NO	254	184	70
79	E.Engram	NYG	252	230	22
80	D.Washington	OAK	246	221	25
81	J.Graham	GB	246	211	35
82	J.Akins	HOU	246	186	60
83	P.Lindsay	DEN	243	268	-25
84	A.Cooper	DAL	240	338	-98
85	C.Conley	JAX	240	200	40
86	Z.Pascal	IND	238	197	41
87	J.McKissic	DET	237	245	-8
88	L.McCoy	KC	236	234	2
89	J.Richard	OAK	236	214	22
90	D.Henry	TEN	236	142	94
91	R.Burkhead	NE	229	173	56
92	A.Erickson	CIN	227	209	18
93	M.Brown	BAL	226	260	-34
94	D.Johnson	ARI	226	229	-3
95	J.Smith-Schuster	PIT	222	221	1
96	G.Bernard	CIN	220	208	12
97	M.Ingram	BAL	220	177	43
98	W.Fuller	HOU	219	260	-41
99	A.Miller	CHI	217	272	-55
100	T.McLaurin	WAS	217	258	-41
101	C.Davis	TEN	217	198	19
102	J.Doyle	IND	216	216	0
103	T.Hilton	IND	213	240	-27
104	J.Brown	BUF	210	326	-116
105	D.Amendola	DET	207	294	-87
106	D.Ogunbowale	TB	207	203	4
107	I.McKenzie	BUF	206	182	24
108	T.Coleman	SF	204	157	47
109	G.Olsen	CAR	201	250	-49
110	T.Hockenson	DET	200	165	35
111	J.Ross	CIN	198	138	60
112	R.Anderson	NYJ	197	249	-52
113	T.Gurley	LA	196	215	-19
114	D.Slayton	NYG	194	221	-27
115	D.Singletary	BUF	193	212	-19
116	D.Lewis	TEN	193	190	3
117	K.Rudolph	MIN	190	209	-19
118	T.Williams	OAK	190	189	1
119	M.Williams	LAC	187	225	-38
120	J.Washington	PIT	185	217	-32
121	J.Jacobs	OAK	183	149	34
122	R.Griffin	NYJ	182	190	-8
123	S.Shepard	NYG	179	272	-93
124	A.Wilson	MIA	179	243	-64
125	G.Everett	LA	178	186	-8
126	P.Laird	MIA	176	151	25
127	M.Gesicki	MIA	175	250	-75
128	S.Sims	WAS	172	196	-24
129	D.Thomas	NYJ	170	176	-6
130	B.Cooks	LA	169	224	-55
131	J.Hollister	SEA	169	219	-50
132	D.Fells	HOU	168	181	-13
133	J.Witten	DAL	162	293	-131
134	A.Peterson	WAS	161	125	36
135	N.Boyle	BAL	160	157	3
136	H.Henry	LAC	159	242	-83
137	J.Hill	NO	159	149	10
138	V.McDonald	PIT	158	210	-52
139	B.Jarwin	DAL	157	151	6
140	K.Juszczyk	SF	157	125	32
141	D.Montgomery	CHI	156	169	-13
142	M.Valdes-Scantling	GB	155	151	4
143	E.Ebron	IND	155	146	9
144	R.Mostert	SF	155	93	62
145	C.Samuel	CAR	153	277	-124
146	R.Gage	ATL	151	235	-84
147	D.Byrd	ARI	151	165	-14
148	O.Howard	TB	150	178	-28
149	T.Hill	NO	149	116	33
150	H.Hurst	BAL	148	138	10

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