Yards after the catch aren’t created equal. A dump off to a running back behind the line of scrimmage goes for a lot more yards after the catch than a pass 15 yards down the field, so using blanket yards after the catch stats to argue how explosive a player is doesn't tell the whole story. That’s why I created a yards after catch model that adjusts for air yards. The model knows that a reception behind the line of scrimmage should gain more yards than one down the field. Here are the 2019 results:
2019 YAC Over Expected
These players exceeded expectations for yards after the catch, which means these players are 1) truly elite, or 2) negative regression candidates for the 2020 season.
Rank | Player | YAC | Expected YAC | YAC +/- |
1 | 939 | 663 | 276 | |
2 | 465 | 250 | 215 | |
3 | 991 | 809 | 182 | |
4 | 591 | 411 | 180 | |
5 | 577 | 429 | 148 | |
6 | 473 | 330 | 143 | |
7 | 292 | 157 | 135 | |
8 | 598 | 475 | 123 | |
9 | 578 | 467 | 111 | |
10 | 330 | 223 | 107 |
Austin Ekeler is due for major negative regression as a receiver in 2020. He led the NFL in yards after the catch over expected by picking up 939 yards after the catch when he was expected to pick up 663 yards after the catch based on the depth of all of his targets. Of course, Ekeler is actually better than the average player, so he should outperform my model, but not by 276 yards. Expect his YAC total to drop by at least 200 yards this upcoming season even if he remains a stud playmaker.
Most of the players on this top-10 list are running backs and tight ends, but A.J. Brown checks in as the second-biggest negative regression candidate after absolutely shredding defenses as a rookie. Brown is obviously very explosive and strong, so he should be an above-average player after the catch, but not even Tyreek Hill can sustain the YAC numbers Brown put up last season (465 yards after the catch). Brown’s league-leading yards per target (12.5) should regress to more normal levels with regression coming.
Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook are both great running backs in space, so we should expect them to outpace the rest of the players after the catch, but even they are set for slight regression in the receiving yards department. McCaffrey will probably settle in closer to 850 receiving yards instead of the 1,005 he had last season. That’s still more than enough to finish as the RB1 overall in fantasy.
2019 YAC Under Expected
These players under performed compared to expectations for yards after the catch, which means these players are 1) dusty, or 2) positive regression candidates for the 2020 season.
Rank | Player | YAC | Expected YAC | YAC +/- |
1 | 272 | 472 | -200 | |
2 | 106 | 276 | -170 | |
3 | 255 | 407 | -152 | |
4 | 138 | 284 | -146 | |
5 | 387 | 526 | -139 | |
6 | 330 | 469 | -139 | |
7 | 162 | 293 | -131 | |
8 | 301 | 431 | -130 | |
9 | 153 | 277 | -124 | |
10 | 364 | 488 | -124 | |
11 | 420 | 544 | -124 | |
12 | 342 | 460 | -118 | |
13 | 210 | 326 | -116 | |
14 | Michael Thomas | 579 | 690 | -111 |
15 | 348 | 458 | -110 |
Allen Robinson is good at football, so I was surprised to see him at the top of this under-performers list, but it makes sense on second thought. Robinson gets fewer opportunities to pick up yards after the catch because he’s constantly having to adjust to inaccurate passes from Mitchell Trubisky or whoever else the Bears trot out at quarterback instead of exploding upfield with the ball coming to his hands. Even with the expected poor quarterback play coming his way, Robinson should pick up far more yards after the catch in 2020, making him a positive regression candidate this season at least in the yardage department.
Marvin Jones is a perfect example of someone just being unlucky for no fault of his own. Jones isn’t a crazy athlete at this point in his career, but he’s plenty capable of picking up yards after the catch. In 2020, he should be healthier, have Matthew Stafford for more games, and regress back to the YAC mean. Jones is a positive regression candidate.
Zach Ertz and Jason Witten are not positive regression candidates. They fall into the “dusty” category, especially Witten who should be serving as a coach or announcer at this point. Ertz is still a reliable underneath target, but he’s not a yards after the catch threat at all. His lack of YAC has gotten so bad that there’s this twitter account:
Calvin Ridley, like Robinson, is good at football and by no means should be on this under-performers list. Ridley was already ready to explode with the Falcons leaving behind the most available targets in the NFL, and now there’s even more reasons to buy Ridley. He’s a positive YAC regression candidate after only picking up 138 yards after the catch when my model expected him to have 284 based on his usage in 2019. I bet he’ll have more than 300 yards after the catch this upcoming season.
2019 Yards After The Catch Leaders
Scroll right to view the entire table.
Rank | Player | Team | YAC | Expected YAC | YAC +/- |
1 | C.McCaffrey | CAR | 991 | 809 | 182 |
2 | A.Ekeler | LAC | 939 | 663 | 276 |
3 | G.Kittle | SF | 598 | 475 | 123 |
4 | D.Cook | MIN | 591 | 411 | 180 |
5 | M.Thomas | NO | 579 | 690 | -111 |
6 | D.Waller | OAK | 578 | 467 | 111 |
7 | C.Godwin | TB | 577 | 429 | 148 |
8 | R.Woods | LA | 576 | 520 | 56 |
9 | L.Fournette | JAX | 558 | 551 | 7 |
10 | A.Kamara | NO | 557 | 573 | -16 |
11 | C.Kupp | LA | 538 | 484 | 54 |
12 | J.White | NE | 530 | 467 | 63 |
13 | D.Samuel | SF | 473 | 330 | 143 |
14 | A.Brown | TEN | 465 | 250 | 215 |
15 | L.Bell | NYJ | 440 | 460 | -20 |
16 | J.Landry | CLE | 439 | 420 | 19 |
17 | S.Barkley | NYG | 438 | 379 | 59 |
18 | A.Jones | GB | 437 | 358 | 79 |
19 | T.Cohen | CHI | 420 | 544 | -124 |
20 | M.Sanders | PHI | 413 | 355 | 58 |
21 | T.Kelce | KC | 412 | 455 | -43 |
22 | D.Williams | KC | 409 | 343 | 66 |
23 | E.Elliott | DAL | 395 | 374 | 21 |
24 | D.Adams | GB | 388 | 430 | -42 |
25 | D.Hopkins | HOU | 387 | 526 | -139 |
26 | D.Moore | CAR | 384 | 410 | -26 |
27 | T.Higbee | LA | 384 | 350 | 34 |
28 | J.Samuels | PIT | 366 | 360 | 6 |
29 | K.Allen | LAC | 364 | 488 | -124 |
30 | D.Johnson | HOU | 361 | 293 | 68 |
31 | J.Crowder | NYJ | 353 | 394 | -41 |
32 | C.Sutton | DEN | 352 | 342 | 10 |
33 | T.Boyd | CIN | 348 | 458 | -110 |
34 | D.Freeman | ATL | 344 | 376 | -32 |
35 | L.Fitzgerald | ARI | 343 | 418 | -75 |
36 | J.Jones | ATL | 342 | 460 | -118 |
37 | C.Thompson | WAS | 337 | 276 | 61 |
38 | A.Hooper | ATL | 335 | 382 | -47 |
39 | D.Goedert | PHI | 334 | 322 | 12 |
40 | M.Gallup | DAL | 333 | 283 | 50 |
41 | J.Mixon | CIN | 331 | 267 | 64 |
42 | J.Edelman | NE | 330 | 469 | -139 |
43 | C.Beasley | BUF | 330 | 312 | 18 |
44 | N.Fant | DEN | 330 | 223 | 107 |
45 | R.Cobb | DAL | 329 | 274 | 55 |
46 | O.Beckham | CLE | 324 | 358 | -34 |
47 | M.Gordon | LAC | 321 | 306 | 15 |
48 | N.Chubb | CLE | 318 | 268 | 50 |
49 | D.Chark | JAX | 316 | 378 | -62 |
50 | D.Westbrook | JAX | 313 | 377 | -64 |
51 | C.Carson | SEA | 313 | 282 | 31 |
52 | N.Hines | IND | 311 | 295 | 16 |
53 | K.Golladay | DET | 304 | 305 | -1 |
54 | T.Lockett | SEA | 301 | 431 | -130 |
55 | S.Diggs | MIN | 298 | 304 | -6 |
56 | J.Conner | PIT | 298 | 261 | 37 |
57 | D.Johnson | PIT | 293 | 311 | -18 |
58 | M.Hardman | KC | 292 | 157 | 135 |
59 | M.Andrews | BAL | 291 | 301 | -10 |
60 | S.Watkins | KC | 291 | 255 | 36 |
61 | H.Renfrow | OAK | 288 | 235 | 53 |
62 | R.Jones | TB | 287 | 199 | 88 |
63 | C.Kirk | ARI | 286 | 372 | -86 |
64 | L.Murray | NO | 284 | 263 | 21 |
65 | T.Hill | KC | 280 | 313 | -33 |
66 | J.Williams | GB | 279 | 286 | -7 |
67 | G.Tate | NYG | 278 | 242 | 36 |
68 | D.Metcalf | SEA | 276 | 292 | -16 |
69 | K.Hunt | CLE | 276 | 262 | 14 |
70 | B.Scott | PHI | 273 | 206 | 67 |
71 | J.Smith | TEN | 273 | 196 | 77 |
72 | A.Robinson | CHI | 272 | 472 | -200 |
73 | D.Parker | MIA | 263 | 321 | -58 |
74 | M.Evans | TB | 261 | 306 | -45 |
75 | K.Drake | ARI | 261 | 246 | 15 |
76 | R.Freeman | DEN | 259 | 298 | -39 |
77 | Z.Ertz | PHI | 255 | 407 | -152 |
78 | J.Cook | NO | 254 | 184 | 70 |
79 | E.Engram | NYG | 252 | 230 | 22 |
80 | D.Washington | OAK | 246 | 221 | 25 |
81 | J.Graham | GB | 246 | 211 | 35 |
82 | J.Akins | HOU | 246 | 186 | 60 |
83 | P.Lindsay | DEN | 243 | 268 | -25 |
84 | A.Cooper | DAL | 240 | 338 | -98 |
85 | C.Conley | JAX | 240 | 200 | 40 |
86 | Z.Pascal | IND | 238 | 197 | 41 |
87 | J.McKissic | DET | 237 | 245 | -8 |
88 | L.McCoy | KC | 236 | 234 | 2 |
89 | J.Richard | OAK | 236 | 214 | 22 |
90 | D.Henry | TEN | 236 | 142 | 94 |
91 | R.Burkhead | NE | 229 | 173 | 56 |
92 | A.Erickson | CIN | 227 | 209 | 18 |
93 | M.Brown | BAL | 226 | 260 | -34 |
94 | D.Johnson | ARI | 226 | 229 | -3 |
95 | J.Smith-Schuster | PIT | 222 | 221 | 1 |
96 | G.Bernard | CIN | 220 | 208 | 12 |
97 | M.Ingram | BAL | 220 | 177 | 43 |
98 | W.Fuller | HOU | 219 | 260 | -41 |
99 | A.Miller | CHI | 217 | 272 | -55 |
100 | T.McLaurin | WAS | 217 | 258 | -41 |
101 | C.Davis | TEN | 217 | 198 | 19 |
102 | J.Doyle | IND | 216 | 216 | 0 |
103 | T.Hilton | IND | 213 | 240 | -27 |
104 | J.Brown | BUF | 210 | 326 | -116 |
105 | D.Amendola | DET | 207 | 294 | -87 |
106 | D.Ogunbowale | TB | 207 | 203 | 4 |
107 | I.McKenzie | BUF | 206 | 182 | 24 |
108 | T.Coleman | SF | 204 | 157 | 47 |
109 | G.Olsen | CAR | 201 | 250 | -49 |
110 | T.Hockenson | DET | 200 | 165 | 35 |
111 | J.Ross | CIN | 198 | 138 | 60 |
112 | R.Anderson | NYJ | 197 | 249 | -52 |
113 | T.Gurley | LA | 196 | 215 | -19 |
114 | D.Slayton | NYG | 194 | 221 | -27 |
115 | D.Singletary | BUF | 193 | 212 | -19 |
116 | D.Lewis | TEN | 193 | 190 | 3 |
117 | K.Rudolph | MIN | 190 | 209 | -19 |
118 | T.Williams | OAK | 190 | 189 | 1 |
119 | M.Williams | LAC | 187 | 225 | -38 |
120 | J.Washington | PIT | 185 | 217 | -32 |
121 | J.Jacobs | OAK | 183 | 149 | 34 |
122 | R.Griffin | NYJ | 182 | 190 | -8 |
123 | S.Shepard | NYG | 179 | 272 | -93 |
124 | A.Wilson | MIA | 179 | 243 | -64 |
125 | G.Everett | LA | 178 | 186 | -8 |
126 | P.Laird | MIA | 176 | 151 | 25 |
127 | M.Gesicki | MIA | 175 | 250 | -75 |
128 | S.Sims | WAS | 172 | 196 | -24 |
129 | D.Thomas | NYJ | 170 | 176 | -6 |
130 | B.Cooks | LA | 169 | 224 | -55 |
131 | J.Hollister | SEA | 169 | 219 | -50 |
132 | D.Fells | HOU | 168 | 181 | -13 |
133 | J.Witten | DAL | 162 | 293 | -131 |
134 | A.Peterson | WAS | 161 | 125 | 36 |
135 | N.Boyle | BAL | 160 | 157 | 3 |
136 | H.Henry | LAC | 159 | 242 | -83 |
137 | J.Hill | NO | 159 | 149 | 10 |
138 | V.McDonald | PIT | 158 | 210 | -52 |
139 | B.Jarwin | DAL | 157 | 151 | 6 |
140 | K.Juszczyk | SF | 157 | 125 | 32 |
141 | D.Montgomery | CHI | 156 | 169 | -13 |
142 | M.Valdes-Scantling | GB | 155 | 151 | 4 |
143 | E.Ebron | IND | 155 | 146 | 9 |
144 | R.Mostert | SF | 155 | 93 | 62 |
145 | C.Samuel | CAR | 153 | 277 | -124 |
146 | R.Gage | ATL | 151 | 235 | -84 |
147 | D.Byrd | ARI | 151 | 165 | -14 |
148 | O.Howard | TB | 150 | 178 | -28 |
149 | T.Hill | NO | 149 | 116 | 33 |
150 | H.Hurst | BAL | 148 | 138 | 10 |
Fantasy Football Content
1. Reviewing Late-Season Production - QBs & TEs
2. Reviewing Late-Season Production - RBs & WRs
3. 2019 Rushing Efficiency Rankings
4. 2019 Receiving Efficiency Rankings
5. 2019 Expected Rushing TD Rankings
6. 2019 Expected Receiving TD Rankings
7. 2019 Deep Target Efficiency Rankings
8. 2019 Expected Fantasy Points (WR)
9. 2019 Expected Fantasy Points (TE)
10. NFL Depth Charts - QB, RB, WR, TE