Going Deep

Yards Per Carry Plus/Minus

by Hayden Winks

May 4, 2020, 9:37 pm ET

Updated On: May 5, 2020, 3:08 pm ET

I think all Rotoworld readers understand the limitations of using yards per carry as a way to rank running backs. The old school metric doesn’t account for a lot of things, including defenders in the box, which is highly correlated to rushing success. Defenders in the box data isn’t publicly available on a per-play basis to my knowledge, but I do know that down-and-distances and whether a quarterback is under center or in shotgun does hold some correlation into how many defenders in the box there will be on a given play. So that’s why I created a YPC Plus/Minus metric that accounts for 1) yards to go for a first down, and 2) shotgun/under center splits.

The chart shows that shotgun runs (red line) go for more yards on average compared to under center runs (blue line), and the difference is heightened in short-yardage situations where shotgun runs are approximately one-yard better on average. But what this chart really shows is how much “yards to go for a first down” plays into yards per carry. Short-yardage backs get crushed in the traditional yards per carry metric, while pass-catching backs who get a few handoffs on random 1st-and-10 plays get too much credit. My YPC Plus/Minus model adjusts for these things, so we can actually see which players are exceeding expectations for the situations they’re playing in. Let’s see last year’s results:

2019 YPC Plus/Minus Leaders

Translation: “Lamar Jackson averaged 2.6 more yards per carry than the average player in his situation after adjusting for yards to go and shotgun/under center snaps.” Note: I removed QB scrambles and QB kneels from calculations, so it’s just designed runs. Minimum 50 carries to qualify.

Rank	Player	Team	YPC +/-	Carries
1	Lamar Jackson	BAL	+2.6	120
2	Jordan Wilkins	IND	+1.9	51
3	Kyler Murray	ARI	+1.9	56
4	Raheem Mostert	SF	+1.5	137
5	Rashaad Penny	SEA	+1.5	65
6	Tony Pollard	DAL	+1.1	86
7	Derrick Henry	TEN	+1.0	303
8	Matt Breida	SF	+1.0	123
9	Gus Edwards	BAL	+0.9	133
10	Devin Singletary	BUF	+0.9	149
11	Josh Jacobs	OAK	+0.8	240
12	Nick Chubb	CLE	+0.8	298
13	Kenyan Drake	ARI	+0.7	122
14	Alexander Mattison	MIN	+0.6	99
15	Christian McCaffrey	CAR	+0.6	285
16	Rex Burkhead	NE	+0.6	65
17	Dalvin Cook	MIN	+0.6	250
18	Chase Edmonds	ARI	+0.6	59
19	Alvin Kamara	NO	+0.5	171
20	Latavius Murray	NO	+0.5	146
21	Aaron Jones	GB	+0.5	236
22	Mark Ingram	BAL	+0.5	202
23	Ezekiel Elliott	DAL	+0.4	300
24	Duke Johnson	HOU	+0.4	83
25	Phillip Lindsay	DEN	+0.4	222
26	Saquon Barkley	NYG	+0.4	217
27	Leonard Fournette	JAX	+0.3	265
28	LeSean McCoy	KC	+0.3	101
29	Adrian Peterson	WAS	+0.2	210
30	Marlon Mack	IND	+0.2	246
31	Chris Carson	SEA	+0.2	274
32	Jordan Howard	PHI	+0.2	119
33	Miles Sanders	PHI	+0.2	179
34	Ronald Jones	TB	+0.1	172
35	Josh Allen	BUF	+0.1	52
36	Ty Johnson	DET	+0.1	63
37	Bo Scarbrough	DET	+0.0	89
38	Jamaal Williams	GB	+0.0	105
39	Brian Hill	ATL	+0.0	78
40	Austin Ekeler	LAC	+0.0	132
41	Carlos Hyde	HOU	-0.1	245
42	Damien Williams	KC	-0.1	152
43	Tevin Coleman	SF	-0.1	136
44	Todd Gurley	LA	-0.1	223
45	Joe Mixon	CIN	-0.1	278
46	Benny Snell	PIT	-0.2	107
47	Boston Scott	PHI	-0.2	59
48	Sony Michel	NE	-0.3	247
49	Frank Gore	BUF	-0.3	164
50	James White	NE	-0.3	67
51	Dion Lewis	TEN	-0.3	54
52	Malcolm Brown	LA	-0.3	68
53	Melvin Gordon	LAC	-0.3	162
54	Mark Walton	MIA	-0.4	53
55	Royce Freeman	DEN	-0.4	131
56	Nyheim Hines	IND	-0.4	52
57	Kerryon Johnson	DET	-0.4	113
58	James Conner	PIT	-0.5	116
59	DeAndre Washington	OAK	-0.5	106
60	Bilal Powell	NYJ	-0.5	58
61	Devonta Freeman	ATL	-0.5	184
62	David Montgomery	CHI	-0.6	242
63	Peyton Barber	TB	-0.8	153
64	David Johnson	ARI	-0.9	93
65	Justice Hill	BAL	-0.9	58
66	Le’Veon Bell	NYJ	-1.0	245
67	Giovani Bernard	CIN	-1.0	53
68	Tarik Cohen	CHI	-1.2	64
69	Patrick Laird	MIA	-1.5	61
70	Jaylen Samuels	PIT	-1.8	66
71	Kalen Ballage	MIA	-2.4	73

What Lamar Jackson did as a runner -- not even as a scrambler but as a pure designed runner -- was unbelievable. He averaged a full yard better on average than elite rushers like Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, Kyler Murray, Josh Jacobs, and on and on. Not only that, but Lamar’s presence also boasted the efficiency of his running backs (Gus Edwards +0.9 and Mark Ingram +0.5) with defensive ends’ feet stuck in quicksand while they try to read quarterback keepers. As long as Lamar is healthy, the running backs around him will be near the top of efficiency leaderboards.

Another thing to look at is how players did compared to their teammates because that also removes some of the noise with coaching and offensive line play. Here are some notable performers:

Derrick Henry (+1.0) vs. Dion Lewis (-0.3)
Devin Singletary (+0.9) vs. Frank Gore (-0.3)
Josh Jacobs (+0.8) vs. DeAndre Washington (-0.5)
Aaron Jones (+0.5) vs. Jamaal Williams (+0.0)
Raheem Mostert (+1.5) and Matt Breida (+1.0) vs. Tevin Coleman (-0.1)
Kenyan Drake (+0.7) and Chase Edmonds (+0.6) vs. David Johnson (-0.9)
Rex Burkhead (+0.6) vs. Sony Michel (-0.3) and James White (-0.3)

2019 YPC Plus/Minus Leaders - Shotgun Carries Only

Minimum 50 shotgun carries to qualify.

Rank	Player	Team	Shotgun YPC +/-	Shotgun Carries
1	Lamar Jackson	BAL	2.7	115
2	Kyler Murray	ARI	1.8	51
3	Gus Edwards	BAL	1.1	126
4	Nick Chubb	CLE	1.0	124
5	Kenyan Drake	ARI	1.0	99
6	Aaron Jones	GB	0.9	73
7	Saquon Barkley	NYG	0.8	102
8	Mark Ingram	BAL	0.6	191
9	Duke Johnson	HOU	0.5	53
10	Phillip Lindsay	DEN	0.4	63
11	Miles Sanders	PHI	0.4	108
12	Joe Mixon	CIN	0.0	136
13	Austin Ekeler	LAC	-0.1	66
14	Carlos Hyde	HOU	-0.1	163
15	Marlon Mack	IND	-0.1	111
16	Ezekiel Elliott	DAL	-0.1	99
17	LeSean McCoy	KC	-0.3	64
18	Devin Singletary	BUF	-0.4	66
19	Chris Carson	SEA	-0.5	161
20	Melvin Gordon	LAC	-0.5	58
21	Derrick Henry	TEN	-0.6	64
22	David Montgomery	CHI	-0.6	123
23	Damien Williams	KC	-0.7	84
24	Leonard Fournette	JAX	-0.7	62
25	James Conner	PIT	-0.7	79
26	Christian McCaffrey	CAR	-1.0	130
27	Justice Hill	BAL	-1.0	57
28	David Johnson	ARI	-1.0	76
29	Tarik Cohen	CHI	-1.0	52
30	Le’Veon Bell	NYJ	-1.2	100

2019 YPC Plus/Minus Leaders - Under Center Carries Only

Minimum 50 under center carries to qualify.

Rank	Player	Team	Under Center YPC +/-	Carries
1	Raheem Mostert	SF	1.9	103
2	Christian McCaffrey	CAR	1.9	155
3	Devin Singletary	BUF	1.8	83
4	Tony Pollard	DAL	1.7	57
5	Derrick Henry	TEN	1.5	239
6	Matt Breida	SF	1.4	104
7	Josh Jacobs	OAK	1.1	199
8	Chris Carson	SEA	1.1	113
9	Dalvin Cook	MIN	0.7	228
10	Ezekiel Elliott	DAL	0.7	201
11	Damien Williams	KC	0.7	68
12	Brian Hill	ATL	0.7	58
13	Leonard Fournette	JAX	0.6	203
14	Nick Chubb	CLE	0.6	174
15	Jordan Howard	PHI	0.6	70
16	Adrian Peterson	WAS	0.6	168
17	Marlon Mack	IND	0.5	135
18	Alvin Kamara	NO	0.5	129
19	Phillip Lindsay	DEN	0.4	159
20	Latavius Murray	NO	0.4	134
21	Alexander Mattison	MIN	0.3	93
22	Aaron Jones	GB	0.3	163
23	Ronald Jones	TB	0.2	146
24	Saquon Barkley	NYG	0.0	115
25	Austin Ekeler	LAC	0.0	66
26	Carlos Hyde	HOU	0.0	82
27	Todd Gurley	LA	0.0	208
28	Benny Snell	PIT	0.0	76
29	Frank Gore	BUF	-0.1	139
30	Miles Sanders	PHI	-0.1	71
31	Sony Michel	NE	-0.1	218
32	Kerryon Johnson	DET	-0.3	91
33	Melvin Gordon	LAC	-0.3	104
34	Joe Mixon	CIN	-0.3	142
35	Jamaal Williams	GB	-0.3	60
36	DeAndre Washington	OAK	-0.3	82
37	Royce Freeman	DEN	-0.4	91
38	Bo Scarbrough	DET	-0.5	52
39	Devonta Freeman	ATL	-0.5	144
40	Malcolm Brown	LA	-0.6	64
41	David Montgomery	CHI	-0.6	119
42	Peyton Barber	TB	-0.8	141
43	Le’Veon Bell	NYJ	-0.9	145
44	Tevin Coleman	SF	-1.0	103

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