Heisman and national title odds courtesy of PointsBet.
|Matt Corral||Ole Miss||200||200|
|CJ Stroud||Ohio State||1000||2000|
|Kenneth Walker III||Michigan State||1500||4000|
|TreVeyon Henderson||Ohio State||4000||4000|
|Brian Robinson Jr||Alabama||6600||4000|
|Sam Howell||North Carolina||7500||5000|
|Sean Clifford||Penn State||8000||5000|
|Jayden Daniels||Arizona State||8000||15000|
|Breece Hall||Iowa State||10000||10000|
|Grayson McCall||Coastal Carolina||10000||N/A|
|Jahan Dotson||Penn State||12500||12500|
|Isaiah Spiller||Texas A&M||15000||12500|
|Chris Olave||Ohio State||15000||15000|
|Garrett Wilson||Ohio State||15000||N/A|
|Jake Haener||Fresno State||20000||8000|
|Brock Purdy||Iowa State||20000||N/A|
|Spencer Sanders||Oklahoma State||20000||N/A|
|Kyren Williams||Notre Dame||20000||N/A|
- Not much doing at the top of the board this week. Alabama QB Bryce Young remained the favorite but drifted from +120 to +175 odds following the Crimson Tides’ upset loss to Texas A&M. Young did end up throwing for 369 yards and three touchdowns with one interception in that game. He sits at 1,734 passing yards and 20 TD.
- Ole Miss QB Matt Corral remained No. 2 on the board with an identical +200 price. That’s a little surprising. In lieu of circumstances, I expected Corral to once again be installed as at least a co-favorite with Young this week. Corral passed for 287 yards and ran for 94 to beat Arkansas 52-51. He’s up to 1,752 total yards and 20 total touchdowns with only one turnovers. Remember: Because of a bye, Corral has played one less game than Young.
- Ohio State teammates QB CJ Stroud and RB TreVeyon Henderson both sit inside the top-eight of PointsBets’ Heisman board. Stroud has surged to No. 3 at +1000, while Henderson is No. 8 at +4000. Stroud was one of the biggest risers on the board this week, seeing his odds slashed in half from +4000 to +2000. He went 24-of-33 for 406 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions in last Saturday's win over Maryland. Henderson played through an undisclosed injury against the Terps and ran for 102 yards and two touchdowns with a 4-67-1 receiving line. The five-star true freshman is up to 766 scrimmage yards and 11 TD.
- Speaking of risers, Michigan State RB Kenneth Walker and Texas RB Bijan Robinson both continued their marches up the board. Walker was the single biggest riser this week, seeing his odds cleaved by almost one-third -- from 40-to-1 to 15-to-1. Against Rutgers, Walker went off for 233 yards and a touchdown as Sparty remained undefeated. Meanwhile, Robinson churned out 137 yards and a score on the ground against Oklahoma in a narrow loss.
- The most intriguing name for me outside of the top-five of the board continues to be Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett. Pickett’s Pitt Panthers were on bye this past week, and he’s become a slightly bigger bargain as a result, from last week’s 30-to-1 to this week’s 33-to-1. If Pitt wins its next three games against Virginia Tech, Clemson and Miami, Pickett very well may surge to the top-three of the board. Pickett has thrown for 1,731 yards -- almost 350 per game -- with a 19/1 TD/INT ratio while rushing for 134 yards and two more scores.
National title odds
- Georgia’s odds (+130) to win the title became a bit shorter after blowing out Auburn. The bigger surprise is that Alabama only fell from +160 to +200 after losing to Texas A&M. A one-loss Crimson Tide almost assuredly makes the field -- so of course Alabama isn’t dead yet. Alabama has four games left against SP+ top-30 opponents. If the Crimson Tide finish 11-1, they’ll still have to play Georgia in the SEC title game. It would be abject insanity to lay 2-to-1 on Alabama to win the title right now. SP+ gives Alabama a 26% chance to finish 11-1. So you’d need to get at least 3-to-1 on your money to feel good about betting an 11-1 prop. If it happens, the Crimson Tide will play Georgia in the SEC title game. My system estimates that Alabama would be a 4.5-point underdog in that game. That’s +185 on the moneyline. If Alabama upset Georgia, they’d still have to win two more playoff games to win the title. Let’s be generous and say Alabama is installed around a pick 'em in both games -- +100 and +100. To recap: Alabama would have to win out in the regular season (roughly +300 odds), beat Georgia (+185), and then win two playoff games (+100 and +100) to win the natty. If you parlayed those four moneylines on a $100 bet, the payout would be $4,560. In reality, Alabama is roughly a 45-to-1 shot to win the national title. Not 2-to-1. Absolutely do not bet Alabama at +200. It would be a sports betting crime.
- The biggest leapers on the board this week were Iowa and Michigan State, both of whom improved to 6-0. Iowa’s odds fell from +3000 to +2000 after the Hawkeyes rallied to beat Penn State. SP+, the system that has been the lowest of any on the Hawkeyes this year, still gives Iowa a 32% chance to finish 11-1 or better. SP+ favors Iowa in every game up until the finale at Wisconsin. But if the Hawkeyes are 11-0 at that point, they will almost assuredly be favored. Michigan State’s incredible run continued with a 31-13 win over Rutgers last weekend. Sparty has beaten every opponent except Nebraska by 17 or more points, including Miami. SP+ gives MSU a 10% chance to go 11-1, and a 1% chance to go 12-0. The Spartans have three remaining games against top-8 SP+ opponents: home contests against Michigan and Penn State, and a road trip to Ohio State.
- Conversely, the Nittany Lions were this week’s biggest loser, dropping from +3300 odds to +8000. SP+ gives Penn State a mere 5% chance of winning their last six regular season games. That’s because the Nits must travel to both Ohio State and Michigan State, as well as host Michigan. Not worth betting on them, even at these long odds.
- Wake Forest is a team down the board to keep an eye on at 150-to-1 odds. The Demon Deacons are 6-0, and their next two opponents are both lower than No. 75 SP+ (Army and Duke). Things get tough down the stretch, however, with four games against SP+ top-40 teams -- UNC, NC State, Clemson and Boston College. SP+ gives Wake a 4% chance of finishing 11-1, and no chance at all of finishing 12-0 (rude!).
- If I’m mentioning Wake Forest, I must mention Pitt (+20000). Hey -- somebody in the ACC is going to have a shot to crack the playoff field in the final weeks of November, right?! SP+ gives Pitt a 63% chance or better at winning every remaining game on their schedule except Clemson (43%). Even though Pitt already has a loss, SP+ gives the Panthers a better chance of going 11-1 than Wake Forest, at 5%. In words words, a 20-to-1 shot. Pitt would likely be around a -125 moneyline favorite in a hypothetical ACC title. By my math, this would make Pitt a roughly 38-to-1 shot to go 12-1. Would the Panthers crack the field at 12-1 with a loss to WMU? For fun, let’s assume it happens. And then let’s assume Pitt would be a +200 underdog in the first game and +800 in the title game against, hypothetically, Georgia (keep in mind that undefeated No. 11 Kentucky is a +1100 moneyline underdog against Georgia this weekend). By that math, Pitt would be roughly 1,000-to-1 to win it all. And that's even giving Pitt the huge benefit of the doubt of playoff inclusion at 12-1. At first blush, 200-to-1 might seem attractive with the schedule that’s coming -- in reality, it’s not worth a roulette chip.
Games of the Week
No. 11 Kentucky at No. 1 Georgia
No. 12 Oklahoma State at No. 25 Texas
No. 13 Ole Miss at Tennessee
No. 19 BYU at Baylor
No. 20 Florida at LSU
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