-1600 USA David Benavidez (25-0: 22 KOs): 6’1”, 168-pounds – 74.5” Reach – 25 y/o
Former WBC Super-Middleweight Champion, Undefeated, Exceptional Physical Gifts of Height & Reach
+850 CAN David Lemieux (43-4: 36 KOs): 5’9”, 168-pounds – 70” Reach – 33 y/o
Big Fight Experience, Composed When Under Heavy Fire, Has a 83.7% KO Percentage in Wins
WHO WILL WIN?
Benavidez vs. Lemieux is a compact puncher who’s not afraid to move forward against a very tall and long fighter who’s ready to meet him in the middle of the ring. The betting line won’t reflect how much heart Lemieux will showcase tomorrow night. Benavidez is trying to not only reclaim the vacant super-middleweight WBC title, he’s also trying to prove the doubters wrong. At one point the Arizona native was the youngest super-middleweight title holder (20) in history, but after being stripped of his title because of a street drug charge on top of missing weight in a different bout, Benavidez would like to put those negative storylines to bed with a dominant victory.
Though Lemieux is hittable with a good jab, which Benavidez possesses, the Canadian also comes alive as he takes damage. Lemieux is physically stronger than the lean Benavidez and can manipulate the action in the clinch. When they are at range though, Benavidez will use his stinging jab and cleaver-like hooks to chop down Lemieux from distance. It will be Benavidez’s toughest test to date by far, but I see the young star shining bright on fight night with a phenomenal performance. Benavidez Wins.
FIGHT GOES THE DISTANCE? +675 YES, -1300 NO
I see Benavidez rinsing and repeating the game plan that Gennedy Golovkin laid out against Lemieux back in 2015. In that fight GGG used a long jab accompanied by a power lead hook. The Canadian is a tough out for any opponent he faces and he’s built like an NFL running back, but he leads with his head, often exposing himself to damage from longer fighters. Benavidez is motivated to silence the critics, on the prowl to regain his title and oozing with confidence going into this fight. I expect a near-flawless performance from the Arizona native to notch a late-round stoppage. Fight Does Not Go The Distance.
Below are the lines for Benavidez to stop Lemieux inside a specific round. Though Lemieux has only been stopped twice in his career - which was to elite competition (Saunders, GGG) - I see the Canadian making Benavidez work for it, but eventually the young gun will get the finish in the 9th round.
+700 Benavidez wins in the 6th Round
+900 Benavidez wins in the 7th Round
+1200 Benavidez wins in the 8th Round
+1600 Benavidez wins in the 9th Round