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Latest Lines

Latest Lines: Federated Auto Parts 400

by Dan Beaver
Updated On: September 11, 2021, 12:37 pm ET

Line Moves

Several drivers bounced around this week before settling into a line fairly close to their original odds, which could mean that betting was fairly heavy at the start of the week. In the end, the surprise favorite, Martin Truex Jr., wound up with a modest advantage over last week’s winner Denny Hamlin.

Truex (+480) opened on as a fairly significant favorite, but early money jumped on Hamlin’s line. By Tuesday, the two drivers were even in terms of their odds at +440. At the time, we suspected Hamlin would gain the upper hand as bettors switched allegiance, but by Wednesday, Truex was back in the lead.

Ultimately Truex’s line softened a bit from his open with 40 points added. If you trust him and the team to have an error-free race, odds slightly under 5/1 are not bad considering his two recent Richmond wins and a current streak of five top-fives there.


After achieving a low of +440, Hamlin (+500) moved back toward his original line. He didn’t quite get all the way to Monday’s mark, but he stayed behind Truex for the remainder of the week. In the end, his line was still lower than he experienced in spring and a large part of that bettor confidence has to do with his Darlington win.

Larson (+725) was ranked as low as fifth at one point during the week, which was very surprising. His high of +775 was reminiscent of what we saw in April on this track before he gained so much momentum. Richmond is certainly not his best track, but his skill potential is so much greater than it was before he climbed into the Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet. In the end he landed outside 7/1, which is about the best you will see for the remainder of the year on unrestricted ovals.

The traders showed more confidence in Kyle Busch (+750) than we thought was appropriate at the start of the week. Then NASCAR announced a $50,000 penalty and riled the driver up. It is quite possible that he will challenge for the win this week and should be in consideration if you are betting four or five deep in regard to the outright win.

Joey Logano (+850) was considered one of Steve Letarte’s favorites at the beginning of the week. In terms of group matchups, he suggested you take all three Team Penske drivers because of their success on 450 horsepower tracks. We are not as confident, but then again Letarte made Hamlin a lock before Darlington’s Southern 500 and that paid huge dividends. At 17/2, Logano has a much better payout than Busch and the risk level is similar.

Christopher Bell (+1800) was one of our top dark horses earlier this week and it would seem bettors agreed. Enough money came in at 22/1 that traders felt the need to shave some points off his line and hedge. He’s still a longshot and no more likely to win today than he was midweek. If you didn’t like his opening odds, there is little incentive to jump on the bandwagon now.

The biggest mover this week was Ross Chastain (+6600). He came much closer to winning last week at Darlington than most know; if Hamlin had left a bigger lane open up top, Larson might easily have turned both cars into the wall, so running third was the place to be. Chastain did not luck into his Darlington top-five. He raced with the leaders all afternoon and seriously challenged. The real question is whether lightning will strike twice. Conventional wisdom says it won’t, but the PointsBet Sportsbook traders sliced 1,400 points off his total anyway.

PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner, and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links.

 

Rank

Driver

Current
Odds

Opening
Odds

Change

Richmond
Spring 2021

1.

Martin Truex, Jr.

480

440

40

425

2.

Denny Hamlin

500

600

-100

600

3.

Kyle Larson

725

700

25

775

4.

Kyle Busch

750

775

-25

1000

5.

Joey Logano

850

800

50

850

6.

Brad Keselowski

1000

1000

0

725

7.

Chase Elliott

1100

1100

0

800

8.

Kevin Harvick

1300

1300

0

1100

9.

Christopher Bell

1800

2200

-400

2500

9.

William Byron

1800

1800

0

2200

 

11.

Alex Bowman

2000

2000

0

3300

12.

Ryan Blaney

2500

2500

0

1400

13.

Aric Almirola

3500

4000

-500

8000

14.

Kurt Busch

4000

3500

500

4000

15.

Tyler Reddick

6600

6600

0

8000

15.

Ross Chastain

6600

8000

-1400

25000

17.

Austin Dillon

7000

6600

400

4000

18.

Matt DiBenedetto

9000

9000

0

9000

19.

Cole Custer

20000

20000

0

15000

20.

Ryan Newman

25000

25000

0

12500

20.

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.

25000

25000

0

15000

20.

Chris Buescher

25000

20000

5000

25000

20.

Bubba Wallace

25000

25000

0

9000

20.

Daniel Suarez

25000

25000

0

20000

 

25.

Erik Jones

30000

35000

-5000

20000

26.

Chase Briscoe

30000

30000

0

25000

27.

JJ Yeley

50000

50000

0

 

27.

Michael McDowell

50000

50000

0

30000

27.

BJ McLeod

50000

50000

0

50000

27.

Ryan Preece

50000

50000

0

50000

27.

Corey LaJoie

50000

50000

0

50000

27.

Joey Gase

50000

50000

0

 

27.

Cody Ware

50000

50000

0

50000

27.

Josh Bilicki

50000

50000

0

50000

27.

Justin Haley

50000

50000

0

50000

27.

Quin Houff

50000

50000

0

50000

27.

Anthony Alfredo

50000

50000

0

50000

 

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Dan Beaver

Dan Beaver has been covering fantasy NASCAR for more than 20 years with a little help from his >650,000 record database. He can be found on Twitter @FantasyRace.