1. Cincinnati - QB Joe Burrow
Free spot on the bingo board.
2. Washington - EDGE Chase Young
Second free spot on the bingo board.
3. Miami (trade) - QB Tua Tagovailoa
If the rumors of Miami preferring Justin Herbert to Tua or wanting an offensive tackle are true, they have a rancid information leakage issue and, I’d argue, a case of the evaluation yips. Feels more likely that they’re pumping media sources with bad intel to boost their odds of acquiring the player we’ve known they’ve loved for over a year.
4. NY Giants - OT Tristan Wirfs
I’ve had Wirfs in this slot going back to early February. Gettleman fetishizes the trenches, and I don’t know that he’d be able to fall asleep tonight knowing he passed on one of the most athletically gifted offensive linemen to ever enter the league.
5. Detroit (trade) - CB Jeffrey Okudah
Late steam suggests Derrick Brown could be Detroit’s target, but taking an athletically-limited pocket-pushing iDL in the top-five with a guy like Okudah on the board, with Darius Slay gone, in a division with Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford and Kirk Cousins, doesn’t seem prudent.
6. LA Chargers - QB Justin Herbert
Air Coryell is back -- bombs away!
7. Carolina - DW Isaiah Simmons
Matt Rhule is a pragmatist above all, and a defensive minded one at that. It’s difficult to envision him passing on one of the most unique and dynamic defensive talents to ever enter the league.
8. Arizona - OT Jedrick Wills
With Wirfs and Simmons off the board and receiver accounted for in the recent fleecing of the Texans, Arizona fixes its right tackle problem for the foreseeable future.
9. Jacksonville - CB C.J. Henderson
Derrick Brown or Javon Kinlaw would certainly tempt, but shopping local with Henderson makes all kinds of sense considering the drop-off between him and the second tier of corners.
10. Cleveland - OT Andrew Thomas
Perfect fit. Cleveland sunk a ton of money into Jack Conklin to help fix the right side of its line, and it enters the draft with an obvious left tackle hole. Of the big-four tackles, Thomas projects cleanest to the left side -- that’s what he’s been playing at a high level the past two years in the SEC.
11. NY Jets - OT Mekhi Becton
Sam Darnold and Le'Veon Bell have to be praying for a tackle, and there’s a good chance that at least one of the big-four will be available here. In this scenario, the Jets scoop up the last of them in the colossal Becton.
12. Las Vegas - WR CeeDee Lamb
This is essentially the best-case scenario for the Raiders with Lamb and Jerry Jeudy both falling. The guess here is Lamb wins a split-decision in Las Vegas’ virtual war room.
13. San Francisco - WR Jerry Jeudy
If the above is the best-case scenario for Las Vegas, the same could be said for the receiver-needy 49ers. Jeudy might remind locals of Jerry Rice.
14. Tampa Bay - iDL Derrick Brown
The Bucs might prefer offensive line help, but they’re no doubt prepared for the scenario of a consensus top-10 prospect freefalling to them. In this one, they stop Brown’s fall and add some serious interior muscle.
15. Denver - WR Henry Ruggs
How’s that for a Courtland Sutton complement? The Chiefs have Tyreek Hill, so the Broncos add the closest analogue to enter the league since.
16. Atlanta - iDL Javon Kinlaw
If Atlanta stays put and CJ Henderson is gone as expected, this scenario would force them to decide between Kinlaw’s immense upside on the interior, K’Lavon Chaisson, or their pick of a Tier 2 corner.
17. Dallas - EDGE K’Lavon Chaisson
Atlanta and Dallas have both been linked heavily to corners. But just like Atlanta couldn’t bypass Kinlaw’s value at another need spot, it would be tough for the Cowboys to turn down Chaisson’s pass-rushing upside if he dropped to 17.
18. Miami - iOL Cesar Ruiz
We know that Miami is going to invest heavily in its offensive line over the next few days. This spot may seem a little rich for Ruiz. But why would the Dolphins risk losing him with such an acute need on the interior amid an awful interior class behind him when they could merely lock in Ruiz and defer needs at deeper position to their next spot in eight picks?
19. Las Vegas - CB Jaylon Johnson
If the Raiders don’t take Jordan Love here, having gone CeeDee Lamb earlier in the round, they’ll likely be sitting dead-red on a corner. Johnson’s upside will be hard to bypass if Las Vegas is comfortable with his medicals.
20. Jacksonville - QB Jordan Love
Surprise! The Jags have avoided the temptation to add veteran competition to press Gardner Minshew. Love needs a season to marinate anyway. If he booms, you’ve got a great trade chip in Minshew. If he doesn’t, you’ve still got Minshew.
21. Philadelphia - WR Justin Jefferson
Feels almost too obvious to happen at this point.
22. Minnesota - CB A.J. Terrell
The Vikes badly need a corner and aren’t likely to take Trevon Diggs after just trading his discontented brother. Terrell would give them some length on the outside to pair across from Mike Hughes.
23. New England - EDGE A.J. Epenesa
Such a Patriots pick. Epenesa has become underrated as the process has gone on and folks have over-thought him.
24. New Orleans - LB Patrick Queen
Queen grew up across the river from Baton Rouge, moved across the bridge for college, and now stays home to begin his professional career.
25. Minnesota - OT Austin Jackson
On Thursday morning, the Vikings radio play-by-play guy took Jackson with Minny’s second first-rounder. And I was then told in a text convo that the Purple aren’t likely to take a receiver with either of their first-round picks if one of the top three guys (Lamb, Jeudy, Ruggs) doesn’t fall. If corner has been crossed off the wish list, that would leave the offensive and defensive lines as next-highest priority spots. The uber-athletic Jackson makes all kinds of sense for the zone-obsessed Vikings, who prioritize OL athleticism as much as any organization. Freak athletes Jackson and Brian O’Neill would man tackle for the foreseeable future, while Riley Reiff would kick inside for what would likely be his last campaign in Minneapolis.
26. Miami - OT Josh Jones
The Dolphins deferred their offensive tackle need to take Ruiz earlier, and are now rewarded with Jones dropping to them. Jones has some technical flaws to clean up, but his 2019 season was the most dominant G5 tackle PFF has ever graded and he has been licking fools in the AAC for years. The Dolphins leave Day 1 with Tua and a much, much improved OL.
27. Seattle - EDGE Yetur Gross-Matos
If Seattle doesn’t trade down, Gross-Matos makes a ton of sense as a long, athletic, projectable edge rusher.
28. Baltimore - LB Kenneth Murray
The Ravens need a linebacker and love high-character players with high-octane athleticism. They especially like shopping at Oklahoma, so this marriage is made in heaven.
29. Tennessee - OT Isaiah Wilson
Tennessee doubles down on its ground-and-pound ethos with the planet-sized Wilson, a brawler from Georgia with the voice of Darth Vader and a SpongeBob SquarePants obsession. Keep Seattle weird!
30. Green Bay - WR Denzel Mims
Be it Mims, Laviska Shenault, Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman, Brandon Aiyuk or Jalen Reagor, Green Bay seems destined to leave Round 1 with a top-flight receiver prospect. The Packers like size on the outside, which would seemingly increase the odds of the first four names. Mims is the most athletic of them, and doesn’t have Viska’s durability concerns.
31. San Francisco - CB Jeff Gladney
What a night for the 49ers! Jeudy falls to 13, and now Gladney, the short-but-ferocious cover corner from TCU, has skipped down the board to 31 to fill San Fran’s second-biggest need spot.
32. Kansas City - CB Kristian Fulton
Another example of the rich getting richer. Fulton would have gone higher had he not gotten popped for a stupid urine-swap scheme early in his college career. Kansas City has taken bigger character risks at the position, and Fulton’s man-coverage chops would be perfect on a team that gets thrown on a ton by opponents playing from behind.