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Pete Alonso
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
NBC Sports Predictor

Alonso and the Mets visit the Marlins Sunday: Play Predictor for Free

by NBC Sports EDGE Staff
Updated On: June 23, 2022, 11:54 am ET

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Sunday on Peacock the New York Mets are in Florida to take on the Miami Marlins. Don Mattingly’s squad started the season with seven losses in their first eight games and have played .500 ball ever since. That translates into a team thinking about getting into the Wild Card chase but not truly in the hunt to this point in the season. The Mets have maintained a hold on first place in the division despite injuries to their top two starters, Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer. While DeGrom is still a few weeks at least from returning, Scherzer may get the ball on Sunday in South Beach.

Neither team has officially announced their starter for Sunday’s matinee but it is expected to be either Scherzer (5-1, 2.54 ERA) or David Peterson (4-1, 3.18 ERA) for New York while Miami is expected to send Daniel Castano (0-1, 2.57 ERA) to the bump.

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To help you out, here are some statistics and suggested picks to the first two questions from this week’s game.

 

Question #1: How many Home Runs will the New York Mets hit at LoanDepot Park against the Miami Marlins?

Potential Answers: 0, 1, 2, 3+

The New York Mets’ offense is far more productive than a season ago. A quick comparison of Francisco Lindor’s RBI totals from last year and this season tell you plenty about the Mets’ improvement at the plate. However, they are an average team when it comes to home runs. No matter what stat you pull up…average. They rank 19th in baseball with 66 in 71 games. They rank 16th in baseball with 35 dingers in 37 road games this season. June has seen an uptick in production. Through the first 20 games this month, New York has hit 19 bombs.

Pete Alonso leads the Mets with 20 home runs in his first 70 games while Lindor has 11 in his first 70. Starling Marte has seven in 60 games this season. On the road, Alonso has 12 in 36 games while Lindor has five in 36. An odd stat that jumps out is Brandon Nimmo’s production on the road. The Mets’ outfielder has four home runs on the season in 63 games and all four have been hit away from Citi Field. Day games have seen Alonso and Lindor go yard seven times to lead the Mets.

Marlins pitching has been top third in baseball in terms of fewest home runs allowed to this point in the season. They rank 10th overall having surrendered 71 home runs in 67 games. At home they rank 10th in baseball having served up 33 home runs in 31 games. June has seen Miami pitchers offer up 23 home runs in 21 games.

The most generous Marlins’ pitchers have been Elieser Hernandez (18 home runs allowed in 11 games) and Trevor Rogers (9 home runs allowed in 13 games). Daniel Castano has given up just one home run in 14 innings this season. On the back end, Tanner Scott (3 home runs in 27 innings) and Anthony Bass (1 home run in 28 innings) close out most Marlins’ wins.

Suggested Answer: All evidence points to a single home run for the Mets on Sunday afternoon. Will be interesting to see if it is Nimmo who goes yard but the numbers forecast one home run from a Mets’ team that is scoring more this season but not often due to the long ball.

 

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Question #2: How many Home Runs will the Miami Marlins hit Sunday at home against the New York Mets?

Potential Answers: 0, 1, 2, 3+

Like the Mets, the Marlins are a lineup that ranks middle of the road in baseball when it comes to home runs. They rank 13th overall in baseball with 76 in 67 games. At home, they rank 18th with 36 in 31 games. Day games have seen the Miami Marlins crank out 25 home runs in 26 games. In June, though, the Marlins have begun to rake a bit more having hit 29 in 21 games (6th in MLB) with seven coming in the last six games.

Jazz Chisholm has smacked four in his last 12 games. The second baseman leads the team with 14 bombs in 56 games. Jorge Soler has 13 home runs in 62 games with three of them coming in the last nine games.   

The Mets have been generous this season serving up 75 dingers in 71 games (13th in MLB) overall. In June the Mets have been tagged 19 times in 20 games. Buck Showalter’s boys are gracious guests without question ranking fourth in baseball having served up 49 home runs in 37 games away from Citi Field. In 30 day games, the Mets’ hurlers have yielded 27 home runs in 30 games.

Tough to gauge what Max Scherzer will bring to the table should he be activated and start Sunday’s game. Prior to hitting the IL, the veteran allowed five home runs in eight starts and one in 18 innings pitched in day games. Should the Mets tap David Peterson to start know that he has given up three bombs in 45 innings overall and two in 24 innings on the road.

Suggested Answer: The Marlins’ bats have warmed up some in June. Expect at least one and probably two home runs from them this Sunday afternoon against a Mets’ team that is too generous away from Citi Field.

 

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