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NFL Draft Analysis

AFC Draft Haul rankings

by Thor Nystrom
Updated On: May 20, 2022, 5:27 pm ET

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My Draft Haul rankings combine each organization’s returns from the NFL Draft and UDFA process to determine who brought in the most talent, and who got the best return on investment (i.e., how much talent was acquired in relation to how much pick equity was spent).

To determine point values, I used Michael Lopez’s “blended draft chart.” This chart values slots based on overall average pick performance and star likelihood at that slot. ROI was determined by a formula involving overall talent acquired and equity spent.

Below, I give condensed thoughts on each team’s draft class and UDFA crop. For my full thoughts, check out my NFL Draft grades, AFC UDFA rankings, and NFC UDFA rankings

I’ve also noted each team’s 2023 NFL Draft holdings as of today, and ranked each teams’ projected 2023 draft equity. I used Tankathon for the order. For R1 draft equity, instead of giving the team projected for the first pick (Falcons) the entire trade-chart 1.1 point total, I averaged the slots between 1-8, 9-16, 17-24, and 25-32, and gave each team in those ranges the average total.

Rankings below are out of all 32 NFL teams. Projected comp picks denoted with a star. Scroll right in the tables below for comps, RAS scores, height, and weight. Click here for NFC haul rankings.

Baltimore Ravens | Draft Equity rank: 4 | Talent acquired: 1 | ROI: 1 

1.14Kyle HamiltonS16Derwin James9.336041217
1.25Tyler LinderbaumiOL114Jeff Saturday8.846021296
2.45David OjaboED837Josh Sweat9.416040252
3.76Travis JonesDL559A'Shawn Robinson9.46043327
4.110Daniel FaaleleOT747Mekhi Becton2.416081390
4.119Jalyn Armour-DavisCB17126Trayvon Mullen7.186005194
4.128Charlie KolarTE494Tyler Higbee9.116065248
4.130Jordan StoutP2269Kevin Huber 6030209
4.139Isaiah LikelyTE12236Jordan Reed4.886044238
4.141Damarion WilliamsCB31214John Reid6.25102183
6.196Tyler BadieRB16218Michael Carter6.425080197
UDFAMakai PolkWR27192Steven Johnson4.96031197
UDFAZakoby McClainLB21237Quincy Williams4.385115227
UDFAJeremiah MoonLB23243Kemoko Turay9.226046247
UDFADevon WilliamsWR36251Equanimeous St. Brown5.66050211
UDFAAnthony BrownQB17319Kelly Bryant7.486013217
UDFASlade BoldenWR47321Trey Quinn4.885105189
UDFAEmeka EmezieWR53351Kelvin Harmon3.276023210
UDFAJosh RossLB32389Cameron McGrone1.726006225
UDFANolan CockrillDL33403Michael Dogbe6.446027278
UDFAARon JohnsonOT34406Brenden Jaimes5.116053300
UDFABrodarious HammOT39463Derrick Kelly II2.766051306
UDFADiego FagotLB42491Josh Kaddu6.126027235
UDFATyler JohnsonED48499Desmond Hollin5.616034281
UDFATre FordQB43X 6.935113197
UDFAKevin BrownRB54XKaran Higdon8.745087207
UDFARicky Person JR.RB60XBrenden Knox4.816004215
UDFATrevon ClarkWR104X 1.786026193
UDFAShemar BridgesWR121X 4.116035207
UDFALiam JimmonsiOL67X 4.776050320
UDFARalfs RusinsDL65X 0.576052305
UDFARayshad NicholsDL67X  6027306
UDFACharles WileyLB57X 8.746021251
UDFADenzel WilliamsCB80X 5.645101180
UDFAKordell JacksonCB98X 0.665083178
UDFACory McCoyS57X 4.725092182


NFL Draft: The Ravens got outstanding value with both first-round picks, stopping Hamilton’s fall at 1.14 and  taking advantage of the NFL’s skittishness over Linderbaum’s arm length to get outstanding on PFF’s highest-ever graded center at 1.25. Baltimore then got Ojabo – a player mocked in the top-10 prior to his torn Achilles in the pre-draft process – at 2.45. Jones, a Senior Bowl star, was an awesome value in R3. Faalele and Kolar were R4 steals. Death, taxes, and Baltimore destroying the NFL Draft.

UDFA: Baltimore signed four draftable talents on my board – WR Makai Polk, LB Zakoby McClain, LB Jeremiah Moon, and WR Devon Williams. The Ravens were extremely aggressive in the UDFA market with receivers and LB in particular. Baltimore signed two additional top-500 overall prospects at each position – WRs Slade Bolden and Emeka Emezie, and LBs Josh Ross and Diego Fagot. It’s possible that two UDFA receivers will make the Week 1 roster. Either McClain or Ross could hang on the active roster as a developmental nod to the post-Josh Bynes future. Moon makes a ton of sense slipping into Ojabo’s projected roster spot until the latter’s return.

2023 draft equity rank: 18


Projected 2023 picks

Buffalo Bills | Draft Equity rank: 21 | Talent acquired: 23 | ROI: 24

1.23Kaiir ElamCB433Carlton Davis8.636014192
2.63James CookRB5112Nyheim Hines8.785114204
3.89Terrel BernardLB10109Deion Jones8.876007218
5.148Khalil ShakirWR1392A-R St. Brown8.325117197
6.180Matt AraizaP1145Todd Sauerbrun 6020200
6.185Christian BenfordCB42349Jack Tocho8.126004208
6.209Luke TenutaOT19178Jake Campos4.76080314
7.231Baylon SpectorLB24247Blake Cashman9.136011231
UDFAJalen WydermyerTE17296Jared Pinkney16040257
UDFARaheem BlackshearRB41393Ito Smith6.015093194
UDFAAlec AndersonOT33405Cole Boozer1.036051304
UDFADerek KerstetterOT35426Simon Stepaniak7.836044305
UDFATanner OweniOL43447Xavier Fulton9.436042307
UDFANeil Pau'uWR76XSage Surratt56034205
UDFAKeith CorbinWR103X 5.216006191
UDFAMalik WilliamsWR122X 5.195067196
UDFAPrince EmiliDL62X 2.386005295
UDFAKingsley JonathanEDGE56X  6025259
UDFAJa'Marcus IngramCB65X 9.056010185
UDFATravon FullerCB109X 6.286003179
UDFAJay LenardS77X  6010209
UDFABrandon RuizK11X  5100180


NFL Draft: The Bills ended up with a few prospects I was a bullish on – Bernard especially – but reached in several slots. The best value pick in the Bills’ class was Shakir, who confusingly fell all the way to 5.148 amid a draft where receiver-after-receiver got pulled up the board. 

UDFA: One year ago, Texas A&M Jalen Wydermyer was a consensus 2022 top-three TE… and TE1 on a number of boards. But a disastrous calendar year caused his stock to plummet. Wydermyer dropped eight balls for an abysmal 16.7% drop rate. His blocking also mysteriously dropped-off. In pre-draft testing, Wydermyer ran a 5.02 and posted a 9th-percentile athletic composite. But receiving skill is a tough thing to teach, and Wydermyer displayed it in college football’s premier conference prior to last year. He also retains potential as a blocker. With Wydermyer, there’s the chance of a long-term roster cog. I don’t see that in the rest of the group.

2023 draft equity rank: 26


Projected 2023 picks

Cincinnati Bengals | Draft Equity rank: 24 | Talent acquired: 27 | ROI: 25 

1.31Daxton HillS442Darnell Savage9.066002191
2.60Cam Taylor-BrittCB867Siran Neal8.325105196
3.95Zachary CarterED26160Charles Omenihu8.16042282
4.136Cordell VolsoniOL22262David Yankey4.756061315
5.166Tycen AndersonS11123Tarvarius Moore9.496017207
7.252Jeffrey GunterED29204Garrett Sickels9.756043256
UDFADevin CochranOT23225Will Fries9.176071306
UDFAJaivon HeilighWR34232Stanley Morgan Jr.3.916004202
UDFACarson WellsED31265Landis Durham7.276026241
UDFABen BrowniOL25288Dan Feeney 6051312
UDFATariqious TisdaleED41409Jalyn Holmes7.096047285
UDFAShermari JonesRB44419Ryan Torain6.756000213
UDFAKwamie Lassiter IIWR77XLucky Jackson4.515107185
UDFAJack SorensonWR93X 1.286002189
UDFAJustin RiggTE46X 6.56057259
UDFAJordan WilsonTE50X 2.466035246
UDFADesmond NoeliOL69X 5.086036301
UDFAStewart ReeseiOL73X 3.236052350
UDFAClarence HicksLB45X 7.356017225
UDFADelonte HoodCB64X 7.225112192
UDFABrendan Radley-HilesCB77X 0.645077183


NFL Draft: A weird draft that featured a series of reaches. In every slot, I felt there was a superior prospect (or several) at the position the Bengals took.

UDFA: The Bengals finally have a starting offensive line they feel good about. But Cincy still had depth concerns and were light on future prospects they felt good about. In the spirit of that, it wasn’t a surprise to see the Bengals aggressively target UDFA offensive linemen. I think there’s a decent chance R4 pick OL Cordell Volson is joined by one of the top-two UDFA offensive linemen that Cincinnati signed – either Devin Cochran or Ben Brown – on the Week 1 roster.

2023 draft equity rank: 24


Projected 2023 picks

Cleveland Browns | Draft Equity rank: 26 | Talent acquired: 21 | ROI: 9 

3.68Martin EmersonCB1188Joejuan Williams8.486015203
3.78Alex WrightED23129Mike Rucker 6051271
3.99David BellWR15113Allen Hurns4.036007209
4.108Perrion WinfreyDL343Darnell Dockett 6035290
4.124Cade YorkK1258Robbie Gould 6012206
5.156Jerome FordRB12176Sony Michel6.945104211
6.202Michael Woods IIWR41282Terry Godwin7.646011204
7.223Isaiah ThomasED20105Alex Okafor9.156050265
7.246Dawson DeatoniOL32338Mitch Morse9.76054308
UDFAIsaiah WestonWR30206Robert Davis9.626034211
UDFAShaun JollyCB35239Parry Nickerson65086179
UDFAMike HarleyWR55358Marquez Stevenson6.615100179
UDFATravell HarrisWR59390Kermit Whitfield3.185075185
UDFABrock HoffmaniOL41420Levi Brown4.216034302
UDFAD'Anthony BellS34432Rayshawn Jenkins8.996005211
UDFARoderick Perry IIDL37442Gerald Willis III2.246013304
UDFAGlen LoganDL40470Roy Philon5.426026298
UDFABen PetrulaOT42496Jonathan Martin6.226050316
UDFAFelix HarperQB44X 6.035097164
UDFAZaire Mitchell-PadenTE36XRufus French7.986047257
UDFASilas KellyLB90X  6034229
UDFAJunior FaulkCB68X  6002210


NFL Draft: The Browns got awesome value with the Winfrey and Thomas picks. I think Winfrey is going to surprise folks at the next level. But I would have made different decisions in the other seven slots.

UDFA: I thought Isaiah Weston would get drafted on measurables and deep-field utility alone. He’s got an ideal blend of size and athleticism, and he knows how to win downfield, averaging 22.6 YPC over 109 career receptions. The rest of his game is raw, and he’s going to turn 25 in October. Shaun Jolly was an awesome Sun Belt corner who defended 25 passes across 34 starts the past three seasons (first-team All-SBC all three years). He’s small, lacks length, and will be a mediocre NFL athlete, but he’s a feisty and heady nickel who is difficult to shake and crashes down in run support. 

2023 draft equity rank: 30


Projected 2023 picks

Denver Broncos | Draft Equity rank: 27 | Talent acquired: 25 | ROI: 15 

2.64Nik BonittoED1056Haason Reddick9.376031248
3.80Greg DulcichTE389Dawson Knox8.256040242
4.115Damarri MathisCB19138Steven Nelson9.725111198
4.116Eyioma UwazurikeDL11172Foley Fatukasi6.546060313
5.152Delarrin Turner-YellS20255Alohi Gilman7.545102197
5.162Montrell WashingtonWR92X  5087181
5.171Luke WattenbergiOL29324Matt Hennessy9.596040306
6.206Matt HenningsenDL18235Joe Gaziano9.336033289
7.232Faion HicksCB59XJourdan Lewis7.855100189
UDFAChristopher AllenED25142Jacob Pugh 6034238
UDFAJa'Quan McMillianCB33223Nickell Robey-Coleman3.65096181
UDFAJalen VirgilWR57378William Franklin9.166001207
UDFAMichael NieseOT31379Seth McKinney9.216032303
UDFAKadofi WrightLB41482Bo Ruud6.036031229
UDFAKaden DavisWR75495Johnny Knox8.345116188
UDFAEric BarriereQB26XVernon Adams55110206
UDFATyreik McAllisterRB71XLexington Thomas7.395090181
UDFABrandon JohnsonWR90X  6023195
UDFADylan ParhamTE48X  6050245
UDFARodney Williams IITE57X 8.876032235
UDFAJake StetziOL71X  6025302
UDFASebastian GutierreziOL80X 9.846047308
UDFAClayton BradleyOT49X 86055317
UDFAKana'i MaugaLB64X 6.096006245
UDFACortez DavisCB74X 3.465100181


NFL Draft: Without a Round 1 pick because of the Russell Wilson trade, the Broncos hit it down the fairway in Round 2 with a pair of decent values at positions of need. But more could have been done with the seven picks on Saturday. The Broncos used three of those picks on UDFA prospects, and another two right on the draftable line on my board.

UDFA: Allen got the most guaranteed cash among the group and is the most intriguing lottery ticket. A ballyhooed recruit with the body of Adonis, Allen posted six sacks and 13 TFL his first season in the rotation in 2020. But a fractured right foot in the 2021 opener and a torn ACL in the 2018 preseason wreaked havoc on his career. McMillan is the opposite-sort of prospect. Small, mediocre athlete, but defended 40 passes over 27 starts. He picks up tells from receivers and rides them along the route. McMillan manages to stay aggressive at the catch point without drawing flags. Denver left the draft with with receiver depth concerns. Virgil and Davis are field-stretching speedsters. Denver is hoping to be put to a cut-day decision by one of them.

2023 draft equity rank: 32


Projected 2023 picks

Houston Texans | Draft Equity rank: 3 | Talent acquired: 9 | ROI: 31 

1.3Derek Stingley Jr.CB319Xavien Howard8.986002188
1.15Kenyon GreeniOL326Andre Gurode5.996040325
2.37Jalen PitreS330Tyrann Mathieu8.475110195
2.44John MetchieWR18137Nate Burleson 5112189
3.75Christian HarrisLB560C.J. Mosley9.076004235
4.107Dameon PierceRB4106David Montgomery7.135095224
5.150Thomas BookerDL13179Eddie Vanderdoes9.886035302
5.170Teagan QuitorianoTE23386Josh Oliver4.746056256
6.205Austin DeculusOT22207Dennis Daley8.246050322
UDFAJohnny Johnson IIIWR42291Quan Cosby5.465117196
UDFAMyron CunninghamOT28342Colton Toner2.126055322
UDFAKolby Harvell-PeelS26346Bacarri Rambo6.585115213
UDFAKurt HinishDL28357Kendall Reyes8.836022302
UDFAJake HansenLB31380Mike Hull 6006239
UDFADamion DanielsDL41487John Atkins1.926016302
UDFASeth GreenWR94X 7.846034242
UDFADrew EstradaWR110X 4.95117195
UDFADarta LeeOT47X 2.16034313
UDFATroy Hairston IILB49X  5104231
UDFAJacobi FrancisCB87X 6.75095191
UDFATristin McCollumS51X  6011198


NFL Draft: The Texans used a top-three pick on a corner who hasn’t played well since 2019 and is coming off a Lisfranc injury, a top-15 pick on a guard with below-average NFL athleticism, and the No. 44 pick on a non-explosive slot receiver coming off an ACL injury. I'm a big fan of Pitre and Pierce. But I can't condone the rest of what Houston was up to this weekend. Sitting on a mountain of equity with a roster badly needing a grand slam draft, this was a missed opportunity.

UDFA: Houston’s weak two-deep should have been a big selling point to NFL agents, but the Texans somehow didn’t sign a prospect within my pre-draft top-290. The cream of the crop was Oregon’s Johnny Johnson, who had less than 600 receiving yards while dropping as many balls (3) as he had TD catches over 17 games the past two years. He’s coming off a foot injury and ran a 4.62 forty at his pro day. OT ​​Myron Cunningham, S Kolby Harvell-Peel, DT Kurt Hinish, LB Jake Hansen, and DT Damion Daniels will all be given shots, but each have capped ceilings.

2023 draft equity rank: 2


Projected 2023 picks

Indianapolis Colts | Draft Equity rank: 25 | Talent acquired: 17 | ROI: 4 

2.53Alec PierceWR1166Eric Decker9.826031208
3.73Jelani WoodsTE6104Jermaine Gresham106071252
3.77Bernhard RaimannOT635Lane Johnson9.876061307
3.96Nick CrossS675Kamren Curl9.876001215
5.159Eric Johnson IIDL20286Chris Wormley9.166043299
6.192Andrew OgletreeTE30XJeff Heuerman9.356053260
6.216Curtis BrooksDL16208Justin Madubuike9.526020287
7.239Rodney Thomas IILB80X 9.256016196
UDFAJoJo DomannLB11122Jabril Cox7.66012230
UDFAJack CoanQB8162Greg McElroy7.76032218
UDFARyan Van DemarkOT21196Joe Haeg9.446064307
UDFAD'Vonte PriceRB20259J.R. Redmond7.86010210
UDFAMax BorghiRB23274Danny Woodhead7.555093210
UDFADallis FlowersCB39301Roc Alexander9.536010196
UDFASterling WeatherfordS25337Tanner Muse8.856040224
UDFACJ VerdellRB33339Ke’Shawn Vaughn2.335076202
UDFASamson NacuaWR62413Steve Ishmael8.066027206
UDFAMichael Young Jr.WR68446Johnnie Dixon5.445102190
UDFAJames SkalskiLB38451James Morris6.565117228
UDFAJah-Maine MartinRB47456James Jackson3.365095215
UDFAWesley FrenchiOL46473Clint Boling9.656047307
UDFAKekoa CrawfordWR80XJohnnie Lee Higgins6.056004192
UDFAJackson AnthropWR106X 1.25090186
UDFAJosh SeltzneriOL54XAvery Gennesy 6045309
UDFAAlex MolletteiOL60X 8.56021300
UDFAMJ DumasiOL84X 4.686031306
UDFABeau MorrisOT59X 1.156051300
UDFADavid KrollOT61X 4.476060318
UDFAMcKinley WilliamsDL55X 3.476035291
UDFACaeveon PattonDL77X 7.716012291
UDFAIsaiah ChambersEDGE64X 1.416032256
UDFACullen WickEDGE65X 9.56035267
UDFAScott PatchanEDGE74X 9.136043251
UDFALucky OyovwiEDGE78X 2.256026244
UDFAForrest RhyneLB71X  6013233
UDFAGrant DixonLB83X 8.326024231
UDFAEvan HolmCB70X 7.515111180
UDFACedrick Cunningham Jr.CB99X 6.695106205
UDFATrevor DenbowS75X 8.275110208


NFL Draft: The Colts had a strong Day 2 – highlighted by stealing late-R1 talent Raimann amid the NFL’s concerns about his medicals – but had a strange Saturday, going totally off the grid with two of its four picks.

UDFA: The Colts signed three players I ranked inside my top-200 – LB JoJo Domann (R4 grade), QB Jack Coan (R5), and OT Ryan Van Demark (R6). In addition, the club signed one RB I had a draftable grade on (D'Vonte Price, R7) and one who fell just outside that range (Max Borghi). The Colts signed eight additional prospects that I ranked between Nos. 301-473 on my pre-draft board. That group of 13 had an average size-adjusted RAS athletic composite in the 72nd-percentile. Domann broke up 16 passes in 24 starts/30 appearances over the last three seasons. The former safety ran a 4.62 with an elite 6.88 three-cone during pre-draft testing. Domann was one of only three linebackers in this class who finished top-10 in overall PFF grade, coverage grade, and run-defense grade (Devin Lloyd and Malcolm Rodriguez were the others) last year. Coan reunites with former Wisconsin teammate RB Jonathan Taylor in an ideal developmental situation.

2023 draft equity rank: 23


Projected 2023 picks

Jacksonville Jaguars | Draft Equity rank: 6 | Talent acquired: 7 | ROI: 16 

1.1Travon WalkerEDGE38Montez Sweat9.996050272
1.27Devin LloydLB115Darius Leonard9.596026237
3.65Luke FortneriOL1195Ethan Pocic7.296041304
3.70Chad MumaLB349Logan Wilson9.776026237
5.154Snoop ConnerRB27290Alexander Mattison7.075101219
6.197Gregory JuniorCB37249Isaiah Dunn8.855117203
7.222Montaric BrownCB27203Benjamin St-Juste4.266004194
UDFAKevin Austin Jr.WR23165Donovan Peoples-Jones9.946023209
UDFAJosh ThompsonCB34226Kendall Sheffield9.555114194
UDFAEJ PerryQB11250Taylor Heinecke9.436015208
UDFAGerrit PrinceTE20330Hunter Bryant4.826044241
UDFADe'Shaan DixonED38382Will Overstreet7.066042247
UDFADenzel OkaforOT32395Terrance Beadles8.966032307
UDFANick FordiOL44454Cesar Ruiz5.346050310
UDFALujuan WinninghamWR108X 4.86030198
UDFAGrayson GunterTE45X 5.856056250
UDFAMarcus TatumiOL52XGreg Senat4.566065307
UDFAIsrael AntwineDL76X 7.846026309
UDFAGrant MorganLB55X 3.495111224
UDFABenjie FranklinCB67X 6.445114172
UDFASean MahoneS65X 4.265111203
UDFAAndrew MevisK4XCody Parkey 5101203


NFL Draft: The Lloyd steal mitigated the value-loss I perceive for reaching on Walker at 1.1, and I’d say the same about the Muma steal mitigating the Fortner reach. I wasn’t a big fan of the three Day 3 picks.

UDFA: Jacksonville had two primary targets. From the $230k in guarantees they handed to each – top-10 in this class and more than any UDFA had received prior to 2022 – it’s clear the Jags expect both to be on the Week 1 roster. EJ Perry only needs to beat out either CJ Beathard or Jake Luton for a roster spot in Jacksonville. Otherwise, the Jags will try to sneak him onto the practice squad. Austin has ideal size and athleticism, and popped off for a 44-888-7 line last year. Austin’s pre-draft process was dogged by questions about his medical history, maturity, and a one-year-wonder collegiate career. 

2023 draft equity rank: 5


Projected 2023 picks

Kansas City Chiefs | Draft Equity rank: 10 | Talent acquired: 4 | ROI: 2 

1.21Trent McDuffieCB210Jaire Alexander9.495106193
1.30George KarlaftisEDGE523Ryan Kerrigan9.216036263
2.54Skyy MooreWR848Doug Baldwin7.595096191
2.62Bryan CookS896Sheldrick Redwine 6006206
3.103Leo ChenalLB451Jordyn Brooks9.996025250
4.135Joshua WilliamsCB14110Greedy Williams9.436027195
5.145Darian KinnardiOL446Deonte Brown5.36053328
7.243Jaylen WatsonCB24177Dontae Johnson9.26020195
7.251Isaih PachecoRB21268Kylin Hill8.865102222
7.259Nazeeh JohnsonCB44397Nick Scott9.085102199
UDFAJustyn RossWR20147Jakobi Meyers2.646035210
UDFAMike RoseLB16199Oren Burks9.066037243
UDFADustin CrumQB9217Nathan Peterman7.216012210
UDFAJerrion EalyRB17234Ronnie Hillman6.155081187
UDFAJack CochraneLB36438Carter Coughlin9.186030236
UDFATayon Fleet-DavisRB89X 5.116001213
UDFADevin DarringtonRB79X 7.855086215
UDFATrevor BegueWR96X 7.925101188
UDFABryce NunnellyWR102X 6.036003189
UDFAChris GlaseriOL62X 9.076040306
UDFAGene PryoriOL74X  6020299
UDFAMike CaliendoiOL82X 6.856040301
UDFATristan NicholsDL45X  6033258
UDFAIkenna OnwuasoanyaDL78X 4.336012302
UDFABrandon BarlowEDGE73X 8.086040256
UDFAJordan Genmark HeathLB76X 8.456011226
UDFACaleb HoldenCB93X 6.865090180
UDFANasir GreerS56X 7.876006209
UDFAReggie StubblefieldS59X 2.765110192
UDFAQua BrownS78X 6.055104204
UDFAKomotay KoffieS79X 5.075111194


NFL Draft: McDuffie was a top-10 talent on my board and others and a top-15 talent on most of the rest, and the Chiefs, who badly needed a corner, maneuvered to No. 21 to steal him when he began dropping due to the NFL’s concerns about his arm length. Karlaftis, Moore, and Chenal were all awesome picks. And I thought Kinnard may have been the biggest steal of Day 3… it reminded me of KC’s good fortune with offensive line in the last class when Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith were both acquired for ludicrous discounts after inexplicable drops. Another grand slam draft for an organization growing accustomed to those.

UDFA: Mike Rose has a great blend of size, athleticism, and P5 production. Rose should have declared after his superb 2020 season but returned and struggled with a rotator cuff injury last fall. He’s a versatile linebacker who should be able to hang around as a reserve and special-teamer. Crum is a tough quarterback with a dual-threat element to his game. Ealy is a slasher with receiving chops (67 catches over 22 starts/33 appearances). Ross was one of college football’s brightest young receiving stars prior to his spinal injury. Ross has fabulous ball skills, and, at full health, is a handful to corral as a runner after the catch. Even a fraction of the old Ross was worth a draft pick. He’ll play in the NFL as long as his body allows him to.

2023 draft equity rank: 21

130Kansas City
262Kansas City
394Kansas City
3*99Kansas City
4118Kansas City
4133Kansas City
5166Kansas City
6191Kansas City
6206Kansas City
7246Kansas City
7*253Kansas City

Projected 2023 picks

Los Angeles Chargers | Draft Equity rank: 23 | Talent acquired: 18 | ROI: 14

1.17Zion JohnsoniOL220Laken Tomlinson9.756025314
3.79J.T. WoodsS10119Jimmie Ward9.436021195
4.123Isaiah SpillerRB384Deuce McCallister5.76003217
5.160Otito OgbonniaDL14182Carl Davis4.86037323
6.195Jamaree SalyeriOL978Jermaine Eluemunor4.156030318
6.214Ja'Sir TaylorCB50435Mac McCain8.285110188
7.236Deane LeonardCB61XTerrell Thomas7.686005194
7.260Zander HorvathRB43411Ryan Nall9.836021228
UDFALeddie BrownRB34344Jeremy Langford6.246001215
UDFATrevon BradfordWR63417DeAndrew White4.245100179
UDFABrandon PetersQB21429Nick Fitzgerald8.886044228
UDFAKevin Marks Jr.RB49475Tre Harbison4.965111200
UDFABrandon SebastianCB56498James Pierre36001182
UDFAStone SmarttQB25XZach Conque8.936041226
UDFAErik KrommenhoekTE42XSal Canella6.116052245
UDFAIsaac WeaveriOL88X 5.866064310
UDFATy ShelbyEDGE79X 8.046037249
UDFAKendricks Gladney Jr.LB66X 4.725106209
UDFATyreek Maddox-WilliamsLB93X 6.876004228
UDFASkyler ThomasCB75X  5087184
UDFARaheem LayneS85X 3.715111192
UDFAJames McCourtK10X  6010216


NFL Draft: The Chargers needed interior offensive line help more than anything coming into Draft Weekend and didn’t need to reach to emphatically address that, getting Johnson in an acceptable slot and stealing Salyer in the sixth round. I understand why the NFL was a little down on Spiller, but getting him at No. 123 is good value however you slice it.

UDFA: The Chargers only signed five UDFA prospects on my top-500 board, and two of them – Leddie Brown and Kevin Marks Jr. – face extremely long odds to make the roster after LA drafted a pair of running backs on Day 3 (Isaiah Spiller and Zander Horvath). Bradford lacks size and athleticism and failed to crack 650 receiving yards in any of his six seasons on campus. Sebastian also may lack the athleticism for the next level. Will the Chargers try Brandon Peters at TE? He’s got the size and athleticism for the transition, and unfortunately lacks NFL accuracy as a quarterback.

2023 draft equity rank: 20

123LA Chargers
255LA Chargers
387LA Chargers
4126LA Chargers
5159LA Chargers
6199LA Chargers
7239LA Chargers

Projected 2023 picks

Las Vegas Raiders | Draft Equity rank: 30 | Talent acquired: 30 | ROI: 10 

3.90Dylan ParhamiOL871Trai Turner8.86025313
4.122Zamir WhiteRB6130Cam Akers9.825117217
4.126Neil Farrell Jr.DL8151Jonathan Hankins0.856041339
5.175Matthew ButlerDL7115Sheldon Day7.326037298
7.238Thayer MunfordiOL19227Colton McKivitz6.746056329
7.250Brittain BrownRB40391D’Ernest Johnson4.786004208
UDFASam WebbCB32221Michael Ojemudia9.376004201
UDFATre TurnerWR33228Tyler Vaughns3.556013184
UDFABamidele OlaseniOT24231Lucas Niang3.886071339
UDFADarien ButlerLB25252Khaleke Hudson 5103226
UDFAMyron Tagovailoa-AmosaED33285Curtis Weaver4.16022270
UDFAChase GarbersQB15294Brian Lewerke7.016017215
UDFASincere McCormickRB29299Devin Singletary3.975084205
UDFAIsaiah Pola-MaoS32415Jayron Kearse8.846034212
UDFAQwynnterrio ColeS33430Joshua Kalu4.696001203
UDFAZach VanValkenburgED44462Cedric Reed6.066044263
UDFAJustin HallWR86XDazz Newsome4.235083189
UDFACole FotheringhamTE38XMatt Bushman3.656041246
UDFABryce CosbyS70X 5.655096188


NFL Draft: The Raiders had very little draft equity but held serve in the slots they selected, finding strong values. I’m surprised Las Vegas didn’t address LB and CB, but, to be fair, Parham was a good pick at a position of need, and the talent well at both of the aforementioned positions had really dried up once the Raiders were on the clock on Day 3.

UDFA: The Raiders signed seven prospects ranked inside my top-300, four of whom I had draftable grades on. Webb is extremely raw but has the size/athleticism profile you can dream on and work with. Turner has good ball skills and breaks tackles after the catch but doesn’t change directions suddenly, making it difficult to separate. Olaseni played soccer and basketball as a child in London, and didn’t discover football until 2014. He was only a one-year starter in the P5 and has a ways to go – but you can dream on the frame, length, play strength, and light feet. Perfect guy to sneak on the practice squad. McCormick is undersized but skilled.

2023 draft equity rank: 13

114Las Vegas
246Las Vegas
378Las Vegas
4117Las Vegas
5150Las Vegas
5*174Las Vegas
6190Las Vegas
6*209Las Vegas
7230Las Vegas
7*251Las Vegas

Projected 2023 picks

Miami Dolphins | Draft Equity rank: 32 | Talent acquired: 31 | ROI: 5 

3.102Channing TindallLB768Daryl Washington9.686020228
4.125Erik EzukanmaWR19144Mack Hollins7.026017209
7.224Cameron GoodeLB37441James Hearns9.466026232
7.247Skylar ThompsonQB14276Sam Ehlinger7.156017217
UDFAKellen DieschOT11116Jack Driscoll9.756071303
UDFAVerone McKinley IIIS13157Juju Hughes2.395100192
UDFATanner ConnerWR38261Quincy Enunwa8.856030226
UDFABraylon SandersWR40271Antonio Callaway7.616001196
UDFAZaQuandre WhiteRB26287TJ Yeldon4.146001215
UDFABlaise AndriesiOL28315Brenden Stai9.816062311
UDFABen StilleDL26345Jay Ratliff9.346040300
UDFAJordan WilliamsDL35423Jabari Issa6.856043291
UDFATy ClaryiOL76X  6043299
UDFATristan SchultzOT66X  6041300
UDFADeandre JohnsonEDGE51XAl-Quadin Muhammad4.786024252
UDFAGarrett CrallEDGE59X 6.626041239
UDFAMike TverdovEDGE70X 9.026036266
UDFAOwen Carney Jr.EDGE75X  6030269
UDFATyshon FoggLB84X  6010228
UDFAKader KohouCB72X 8.575095193
UDFAElijah HamiltonCB81X 8.746012211
UDFAGreg Eisworth IIS43XStevie Brown0.965114199
UDFATommy HeatherlyP9X  5110210


NFL Draft: The Dolphins had scant draft equity due to the Tyreek Hill trade but did a good job in the slots they picked in. I especially liked the pick that led off Miami’s draft, Channing Tindall. Tindall was a better player last year on Georgia’s national title team than Packers’ first-rounder Quay Walker

UDFA: Diesch absolutely deserved to be drafted. He’s long, super-athletic, and a proven P5 commodity. Diesch posted PFF grades of 80.0 or above each of the past two seasons, and showed out with a 98.7 pass-blocking efficiency last year. McKinley would have been drafted were it not for his pre-draft testing, which included a 4.67 forty and sub-45th-percentile showings in both agility tests. He moves around better than that on the field. I like his fearless style. Coaches and teammates rave about him. He was an All-American last year, breaking up 12 passes and picking off six.

2023 draft equity rank: 6


Projected 2023 picks

New England Patriots | Draft Equity rank: 15 | Talent acquired: 26 | ROI: 32

1.29Cole StrangeiOL554Joe Thuney9.956050307
2.50Tyquan ThorntonWR16128D.J. Chark8.566023183
3.85Marcus JonesCB1079Amik Robertson 5080177
4.121Jack JonesCB28205Ambry Thomas6.785112177
4.127Pierre Strong Jr.RB8141Joseph Addai9.345113207
4.137Bailey ZappeQB7134Chase Daniel5.976004217
6.183Kevin HarrisRB11169Julius Jones7.145097222
6.200Sam RobertsDL30365Devon Still7.036046293
6.210Chasen HinesiOL31331Damien Lewis6.616025331
7.245Andrew StueberiOL27311Quasim Mitchell5.096065323
UDFALaBryan RayED30211Kingsley Keke6.656042286
UDFAD'Eriq KingQB13266Quenton Flowers5.465086197
UDFABrenden SchoolerS37460Kai Nacua9.786015203
UDFAJake ParkerWR116X 7.265116200
UDFALiam ShanahaniOL77X 8.96045305
UDFAKody RusseyiOL90X 8.716015301
UDFAJared BrinkmanDL70X 6.56002292
UDFADaMarcus MitchellEDGE58X 5.496026260
UDFADevin HaffordCB95X 8.35096195
UDFACoby TippettS97X 3.735082195
UDFAJake JulienP7X  6020217


NFL Draft: I was one of the higher people in the industry on Strange, Thornton, and Harris… but still felt New England reached on the former two. There was a bunch more reaching with the other picks. And then a few oddities. I like Zappe… but why use the No. 137 on a QB a year after using a top-15 pick on one? I'm a fan of Harris... but why take two RB with the running back room you already have?

UDFA: Between EDGE LaBryan Ray, OW D'Eriq King, S Brenden Schooler and OT Kody Russey, I think we’ll see the Patriots’ streak of consecutive seasons with a UDFA cracking its opening roster extended to 19. Ray’s biggest issue is health. He was a top-25 overall recruit coming out of high school but only played 850 snaps across five years at Alabama after suffering two separate feet injuries, two separate elbow injuries, and a groin injury. King’s best chance to win a Week 1 job is converting back to receiver, a position he played early-on in his career at Houston. Schooler is an awesome special-teamer who could contribute on nearly every unit until he’s ready to join the defensive backfield rotation. 

2023 draft equity rank: 11

116New England
248New England
371New England
3*97New England
4119New England
4131New England
6183New England
6192New England
6*216New England
7232New England

Projected 2023 picks

New York Jets | Draft Equity rank: 2 | Talent acquired: 2 | ROI: 11

1.4Ahmad GardnerCB17Richard Sherman 6026193
1.10Garrett WilsonWR417Stefon Diggs7.85116184
1.26Jermaine JohnsonEDGE413Marcus Davenport9.236045260
2.36Breece HallRB139Matt Forte9.965112218
3.101Jeremy RuckertTE598Foster Moreau 6054251
4.111Max MitchellOT9100Forrest Lamp5.546060307
4.117Micheal ClemonsED22125D.J. Wonnum8.226054265
UDFAZonovan KnightRB25284Khalil Herbert5.845107209
UDFAAli FayadED37350Wyatt Ray4.446015248
UDFAC.J. BrewerDL34422Ricky Walker6.086016288
UDFAJohn ChenalTE27494Ben Mason9.336024254
UDFANick StarkelQB28XCollin Hill1.76041217
UDFALiam WelchQB29XCase Keenum 6013210
UDFABreylin SmithQB41X  6023227
UDFADeAndre TorreyRB63XLarry Rountree III6.035070201
UDFAIrvin CharlesWR118X 8.396041228
UDFAKeshunn AbramWR119X 9.26013194
UDFABrett BorskeTE31XRico Gathers7.356061265
UDFADaniel ImatorbhebheTE32XDante Rosario3.286032226
UDFAIsiah MacklinTE49X 5.726040236
UDFAAiron ServaisOT55X 4.896056307
UDFASavion WilliamsDL69X 2.796032281
UDFADQ ThomasLB47X  6015226
UDFAJeremiah TylerLB86X 4.296007223
UDFATony AdamsCB57XCraig Mager9.745114203
UDFADevin RocketteCB76X 5.245094180
UDFAAllan GeorgeCB82X 8.665112191
UDFADarion DunnCB96X 2.746000195
UDFAJeremy WebbCB108X  6026201
UDFAOmar ForttS42XDelvon Randall7.586002213
UDFANowoola AwopetuS49X  5112197
UDFAJordan MosleyS58X 5.826000201
UDFANick ScibaK5X  5095197


NFL Draft: Sauce Gardner should not have been available to New York, but the Jets were able to take advantage of Houston’s folly. Wilson was plucked off the board as the record-setting receiver run was starting, ensuring the Jets came out on the right side of that. Jermaine Johnson was highway robbery at 1.26. Breece Hall is the three-down bellcow Zach Wilson needed. The other picks were also strong values. After this draft, the Jets' roster is beginning to look frisky... if Wilson can make a Year 2 leap.

UDFA: Knight ranked No. 12 in this RB class in elusive rating, and No. 14 in broken tackles forced. "Bam" also utility in the passing game. He’s a smooth route-runner and a fixer in pass-pro, smart, physical, capable, and enthusiastic. It would be nice if he could gain 10-15 pounds without further depreciating his quickness. Either way, the question will be if he has the athleticism to threaten NFL defenses.  Fayad posted enormous production in the MAC – career 28.5 sacks and 53 TFL – but lacks measurables. Chenal picked the right spot, in that the Jets use fullbacks, but he’s a longshot for the Week 1 roster unless Nick Bawden suffers an injury.

2023 draft equity rank: 7

15NY Jets
237NY Jets
369NY Jets
4108NY Jets
5141NY Jets
6178NY Jets
6181NY Jets

Projected 2023 picks

Pittsburgh Steelers | Draft Equity rank: 19 | Talent acquired: 19 | ROI: 21

1.20Kenny PickettQB452Andy Dalton9.556033219
2.52George PickensWR950Nico Collins9.376032200
3.84DeMarvin LealDL453Chris Jones7.446037284
4.138Calvin AustinWR14107D'Wayne Eskridge9.085076170
6.208Connor HeywardTE18304Dimitri Flowers4.615111237
7.225Mark RobinsonLB70X 6.385114230
7.241Chris OladokunQB20370Erik Meyer7.356012213
UDFABryce WattsCB36242Ashton Youboty7.895115187
UDFATyree JohnsonED34314Jabril Frazier3.486027250
UDFATayland HumphreyDL25340Josh Augusta0.966003328
UDFAChris SteeleCB41343Sean Murphy-Bunting7.586003187
UDFAJaylen WarrenRB35352Jerick McKinnon4.825080207
UDFAMataeo DurantRB46444C.J. Marable6.55113196
UDFAJordan TuckerOT38450Rashod Hill1.626062344
UDFADonovan JeterDL39457Jay Bromley6.246031310
UDFAChris OwensiOL45466Ben Claxton3.166025305
UDFAMichael MaiettiiOL49500Brett Romberg5.796013303
UDFACharles WilliamsRB51XSalvon Ahmed3.765094200
UDFAVincent McConnelliOL56X 8.366045295
UDFAJack BadovinaciOL57X 6.546011303
UDFALiam FornadeliOL63X 4.756042312
UDFAVitaliy GurmaniOL78X 8.266030306
UDFAJake DixonOT58X 8.36051310
UDFAJahad WoodsLB68X 4.155096217
UDFAT.D. MoultryLB82X 2.086013246
UDFATyler DresslerLB75X 7.746021241
UDFATyrell FordCB85X 6.665106191


NFL Draft: I liked the Leal and Austin picks. But – even outside of the fact that I don’t love him as a prospect – the Steelers badly misread the room by taking Pickett in the top-20. Pickens is talented but has character concerns. The last three picks were airmailed.

UDFA: The Steelers signed 10 prospects I ranked in the top-500. Bryce Watts and Chris Steele have NFL frames and athletic profiles. Outside of those two, in the aforementioned group of 10 top-500 prospects, nobody else tested above the 65th-percentile. Johnson led A&M with 8.5 sacks last year. He’s undersized, lacks length, and tested poorly, but plays with good bend and body control and has a deep bag of pass-rushing tricks. Humphrey is a sawed-off space-eater with a quick first-step who admirably wins the pad-level game despite his elephantine frame. But he can get caught out of position or pushed upfield too quickly.

2023 draft equity rank: 14


Projected 2023 picks

Tennessee Titans | Draft Equity rank: 12 | Talent acquired: 8 | ROI: 7

1.18Treylon BurksWR740Laviska Shenault5.816017224
2.35Roger McCrearyCB761Rock Ya-Sin5.485113191
3.69Nicholas Petit-FrereOT10108Bobby Evans6.266052316
3.86Malik WillisQB11Michael Vick 6004223
4.131Hassan HaskinsRB19256Gus Edwards 6017227
4.143Chigoziem OkonkwoTE11215Orson Charles6.476024243
5.163Kyle PhilipsWR21153Hunter Renfrow8.315112181
6.204Theo JacksonS47X 7.666007198
6.219Chance CampbellLB27308Tanner Vallejo9.696023232
UDFAJayden PeevyDL12175Vernon Butler4.296053308
UDFAAndrew RupcichOT20189Ben Bartch7.726060322
UDFAHaskell GarrettDL15198Larrell Murchison4.586021300
UDFAReggie Roberson Jr.WR32219Tylan Wallace4.395110193
UDFADavid AnenihED32273Azeez Ojulari7.576020245
UDFAJalen McKenzieOT29355James Hudson3.416046310
UDFAXavier Newman-JohnsoniOL40392Austin Blythe5.366017297
UDFAJulius ChestnutRB55XBryce Brown 5110228
UDFABrandon LewisWR95X 6.475084175
UDFAHayden HowertoniOL51XKasey Studdard8.066030300
UDFASam OkuayinonuEDGE49XTully Banta-Cain8.066010269
UDFAJack GibbensLB78X 7.426032242
UDFATre SwillingCB63X 6.456006196
UDFAMichael Griffin IIS46X  5113213
UDFAJohn PetrishenS63X 7.856007227
UDFACaleb ShudakK8X 1.315065179
UDFARyan StonehouseP4XMax Duffy 5093189


NFL Draft: Willis at 3.86 is one of my favorite singular picks of the past five years. The last time I disagreed with the NFL this strongly about an evaluation, the player was Lamar Jackson. Needing a year to develop, Willis found a good spot. The rest of the picks didn’t do a ton for me – nothing too egregious, but no excess value over slot. But I remain bullish that Willis will provide plenty of that if you’re willing to wait on him.

UDFA: The Titans didn’t take a DT in the NFL Draft but signed two of the best left immediately upon its conclusion in Texas A&M’s Jayden Peevy and Ohio State’s Haskell Garrett. Expect one to make the Week 1 roster. Rupcich has an ideal blend of size and athleticism, but needs to play lower and with better technique. He's likely practice squad-bound. Roberson showed lock-to-be-drafted skills early, but his past three seasons were hindered by injury. When he’s right, he’s a Tylan Wallace-like deep threat. Lewis was a slot in Air Force's triple-option who came out of nowhere to explode for almost 30 YPR last season.

2023 draft equity rank: 19


Projected 2023 picks

Thor Nystrom

Thor Nystrom is NBC Sports Edge’s lead CFB writer. The 2018 FSWA College Sports Writer of the Year, Nystrom’s writing has also been honored by Rolling Stone magazine and The Best American Essays series. Say hi to him on Twitter @thorku!