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Friends, I speak to you from my soul: This is easily the most unpredictable NFL Draft that I've covered, but let's give one final shot to guessing the board. Below are the first two rounds in tables. Then we'll jump into the analysis of all 32 teams' hauls.
Note: Scroll right for each prospect's RAS composite and comp. RAS size-adjusted athletic composites provided by Kent Lee Platte. RAS scores should be read as percentiles -- ie "5.0" is 50th-percentile.
|1||Jaguars||Travon Walker||EDGE||6050||272||9.99||Montez Sweat|
|3||Texans||Aidan Hutchinson||EDGE||6065||268||9.88||Joey Bosa|
|4||Jets||Ikem Ekwonu||OT||6040||328||8.51||Trent Williams|
|5||Giants||Evan Neal||OT||6074||345||Jordan Mailata|
|6||Panthers||Malik Willis||QB||6004||223||Michael Vick|
|8||Falcons||Drake London||WR||6037||219||Mike Evans|
|9||Seahawks||Derek Stingley Jr.||CB||6002||188||8.98||Xavien Howard|
|10||Jets||Jameson Williams||WR||6014||180||Jerry Jeudy|
|11||Commanders||Garrett Wilson||WR||5116||184||7.8||Stefon Diggs|
|12||Vikings||Kyle Hamilton||S||6041||217||9.33||Derwin James|
|13||Texans||Charles Cross||OT||6046||311||7.58||Andre Dillard|
|14||Ravens||Jordan Davis||DL||6063||341||10||Haloti Ngata|
|15||Eagles||Trent McDuffie||CB||5106||193||9.49||Jaire Alexander|
|16||Saints||Trevor Penning||OT||6071||333||9.95||Kyle Turley|
|17||Chargers||Jermaine Johnson II||EDGE||6045||260||9.23|
|19||Saints||Chris Olave||WR||6004||185||8.68||Terry McLaurin|
|20||Steelers||Kenny Pickett||QB||6033||219||9.55||Andy Dalton|
|21||Patriots||Devin Lloyd||LB||6026||237||9.59||Darius Leonard|
|22||Packers||Jahan Dotson||WR||5105||181||6.34||Tyler Lockett|
|23||Cardinals||Kaiir Elam||CB||6014||192||8.63||Carlton Davis|
|24||Cowboys||Tyler Linderbaum||iOL||6021||296||8.84||Jeff Saturday|
|25||Bills||Andrew Booth Jr.||CB||6002||194|
|27||Buccaneers||Kenyon Green||iOL||6040||325||5.99||Andre Gurode|
Anthony Walker Jr.
|29||Chiefs||Arnold Ebiketie||EDGE||6026||247||8.91||Shaq Barrett|
|30||Chiefs||Christian Watson||WR||6041||208||9.96||Javon Walker|
|31||Bengals||Lewis Cine||S||6022||202||9.92||Adrian Amos|
|32||Lions||Sam Howell||QB||6005||224||C.J. Beathard|
|33||Jaguars||Tyler Smith||OT||6047||327||8.77||Donovan Smith|
|34||Lions||Kyler Gordon||CB||5114||198||9.69||Byron Jones|
|35||Jets||George Karlaftis||EDGE||6036||263||9.21||Ryan Kerrigan|
|36||Giants||Boye Mafe||EDGE||6036||257||9.92||Kwity Paye|
|37||Texans||Breece Hall||RB||5112||218||9.96||Matt Forte|
|38||Jets||Jalen Pitre||S||5110||195||8.47||Tyrann Mathieu|
|39||Bears||Bernhard Raimann||OT||6061||307||9.87||Lane Johnson|
|40||Seahawks||Desmond Ridder||QB||6033||213||9.61||Marcus Mariota|
|41||Seahawks||David Ojabo||EDGE||6040||252||9.41||Josh Sweat|
|42||Colts||Skyy Moore||WR||5096||191||7.59||Doug Baldwin|
|43||Falcons||Logan Hall||EDGE||6061||285||9.4||Margus Hunt|
|44||Browns||Devonte Wyatt||DL||6027||304||9.59||Tommie Harris|
|45||Ravens||Cam Jurgens||iOL||6027||304||9.94||Richie Incognito|
|46||Vikings||Darian Kinnard||iOL||6053||328||5.3||Deonte Brown|
|47||Commanders||Nakobe Dean||LB||5113||231||Jessie Tuggle|
|48||Bears||George Pickens||WR||6032||200||9.37||Nico Collins|
|49||Saints||Matt Corral||QB||6015||215||Jake Plummer|
|50||Chiefs||Daniel Faalele||OT||6081||390||2.41||Mekhi Becton|
|51||Eagles||Jaquan Brisker||S||6013||206||9.14||Vonn Bell|
|52||Steelers||Nik Bonitto||EDGE||6031||248||9.37||Haason Reddick|
|53||Packers||Abraham Lucas||OT||6063||316||9.73||Jake Fisher|
|54||Patriots||Roger McCreary||CB||5113||191||5.48||Rock Ya-Sin|
|55||Cardinals||Perrion Winfrey||DL||6035||290||Darnell Dockett|
|56||Cowboys||Daxton Hill||S||6002||191||9.06||Darnell Savage|
|57||Bills||Kenneth Walker III||RB||5092||209||9.26|
|58||Falcons||Chad Muma||LB||6026||237||9.77||Logan Wilson|
|61||49ers||Tariq Woolen||CB||6041||205||9.7||Ifeatu Melifonwu|
|62||Chiefs||Cam Taylor-Britt||CB||5105||196||8.32||Siran Neal|
|63||Bengals||Trey McBride||TE||6035||245||8.2||Dallas Goedert|
|64||Broncos||Leo Chenal||LB||6025||250||9.99||Jordyn Brooks|
1.23 CB Kaiir Elam
2.55 DL Perrion Winfrey
In the 23rd slot, the Cardinals should be in a prime spot to fill their CB need. Elam was getting slept on earlier in the process, but chatter has picked up over the last week. He’s a long, technically-sound boundary corner with NFL bloodlines. The front-seven needs addressing as well and would get that at a sticker-price discount if Winfrey falls to 2.55.
1.8 WR Drake London
2.43 EDGE Logan Hall
2.58 LB Chad Muma
Atlanta’s affinity for London has been well-reported, and the Falcons’ hollowed-out receiving corps is crying out for legitimate help. Atlanta is absolutely sniffing around quarterbacks, but in this exercise, they hold off – mostly due to circumstance. As it’s been explained to me, the Falcons prefer to use their first pick on a different position, and, according to one source, like Desmond Ridder as an option later on. A trade-down was presented to me as a possibility. The way this mock transpired, they’d either need to trade down or trade up to get him (Ridder went 2.40 to the Seahawks). Instead, Atlanta uses its pair of R2 picks on front-seven help.
1.14 DL Jordan Davis
2.45 iOL Cam Jurgens
Meat-and-potatoes draft for the Ravens – and this is a lot of meat. The Ravens have done a ton of work on Davis this process, and, according to multiple Baltimore beat reporters, the Ravens like him a lot. Jurgens plus the center hole created by Bradley Bozeman’s defection to Carolina.
1.25 CB Andrew Booth Jr.
2.57 RB Kenneth Walker III
The Bills have been floated as a possibility for a Round 1 running back – I just can’t see them pulling the trigger that early on an RB. Instead, the Bills address a legitimate need at corner at 1.25, and then have Kenny Walker fall to them at 2.57. In my opinion, Walker is the best fit in this class for what the Bills are attracted to. The last two RBs the Bills selected – Devin Singletary and Zack Moss – both led the nation in broken tackles per attempt by a running back the year they declared. Walker is coming off a season where he did the same.
1.6 QB Malik Willis
This is a tough one. We know three things: Carolina is willing to trade down, the Panthers have informed Sam Darnold that they intend to take a quarterback in the draft, and Carolina has first-round grades on Willis, Matt Corral, and Kenny Pickett. After this pick, the Panthers don’t pick again until Round 4 – why go to the trouble of telling Darnold that, and then announcing it to the media, unless you’re preparing to make a splash with the only premium pick you own? Due to HC Matt Rhule’s history with Kenny Pickett – Pickett was once committed to play for Rhule at Temple – and due to Carolina’s lack of Day 2 picks, the Panthers might prefer to trade into the teens or early-20s, pick up a bundle of picks, and take Pickett there. The Steelers make all kinds of sense as a trade partner. The Saints would too if they like Willis. Stay tuned.
2.39 OT Bernhard Raimann
2.48 WR George Pickens
Feels likely that GM Ryan Pace’s prerogative will be to swing from the heels on upside when he’s finally on the clock. These picks would certainly qualify. Each of these guys has been mocked higher in previous months, but medical questions for Raimann and character questions for Pickens may cause each to slide.
1.31 S Lewis Cine
2.63 TE Trey McBride
The Bengals spent all offseason fixing their offensive line, freeing themselves to potentially focus on other positions early. Secondary is the team’s biggest need. An all-purpose playmaker like Cine is going to be tempting. At the end of Round 2, if McBride, the class’s best tight end, is still there, I’d expect Cincy to pounce.
2.44 DL Devonte Wyatt
Wyatt has been mocked higher all process, but recent reports suggest he could be a draft faller over character concerns. Cleveland has provided respite to draft free-fallers in recent years and could do so again if this scenario presents itself.
1.24 iOL Tyler Linderbaum
2.56 S Daxton Hill
Cowboys fans might be disappointed not to see a wide receiver in the first two rounds. But Dallas prioritizes offensive line play and has an enormous hole on the interior right now that Linderbaum would neatly fill. In Round 2, if a safety like Hill falls here, the Cowboys may feel like they have no choice.
2.64 LB Leo Chenal
Feels likely that a plug-and-player starting linebacker will be available to Denver in the No. 64 slot. In this exercise, that’s Chenal, the muscle-up, downhill, attacking pit bull. He’ll be starting from Day 1.
1.2 EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux
1.32 QB Sam Howell
2.34 CB Kyler Gordon
I had Malik Willis plugged into the 1.2 slot in my last few mocks but am backing off that in my final iteration. But I will say: One source close to the situation told me that Willis is still in play for Detroit (though that source stopped far short of predicting it would happen). The Lions have done a fabulous job keeping us guessing about their true intentions until the end. Thibodeaux over Hutchinson would be a stunner – but it’s actually in play. There’s been a ton of smoke that the Lions love Thibodeaux. I’m hearing the same. I’ve also heard that if the Lions pass on a QB early, another surprise could be coming at 1.32. Detroit coached Howell at the Senior Bowl and believes he has moldable traits. If the Lions went those directions in R1, they’d almost have to address arguably the league’s worst secondary at 2.34.
Green Bay Packers
1.22 WR Jahan Dotson
1.28 LB Quay Walker
2.53 OT Abraham Lucas
2.59 DL Travis Jones
The Packers desperately need a receiver and have plenty of draft capital but might be in a weird spot if they’re stuck at 1.22 since it’s unlikely that any of the class’s top-four receivers will fall there. If not, I assume Green Bay would prefer Dotson or Christian Watson to Treylon Burks. At this juncture, Burks is more of a manufactured-touch short-area guy, and Green Bay needs a guy who can reliably create separation and make plays in the intermediate and deep areas. Quay Walker might be a surprise R1 pick to some, but at this moment, it would be an upset to the sports betting markets if he wasn’t. As of publication time on Wednesday afternoon, Walker was a betting favorite to go in Round 1 following a ton of steam late in his process.
1.3 EDGE Aidan Hutchinson
1.13 OT Charles Cross
2.37 RB Breece Hall
Eleventh-hour smoke has LSU CB Derek Stingley Jr. in play for the 1.3 slot (with Sauce Gardner also very much in play). But if the board shakes out this way, Houston would sprint a 4.4 to the podium with Hutchinson’s name on it. Cross would address the right tackle need and potentially allow Houston to shop Laremy Tunsil next offseason, with Cross shifting to LT. I love the fit of Hall in Houston – he’s a three-down, all-purpose runner who would greatly help Davis Mills. If you want 2022 to be a referendum season on Mills' future viability as a starter, you'd better give him the tools to succeed. Cross and Hall would qualify as a big step in that direction.
2.42 WR Skyy Moore
No first-round pick? No problem. Skyy Moore will be a headache for NFL cornerbacks for years. Love this fit.
1.1 EDGE Travon Walker
2.33 OT Tyler Smith
The Jaguars are putting the “fun” in dysfunctional as we enter the home stretch of this NFL Draft process. NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah reported on Tuesday that GM Trent Baalke prefers Walker, while HC Doug Pederson prefers OT Ickey Ekwonu. The situation was painted as a bit of a power struggle. I don’t agree with taking Walker first overall, but it would be stunning to me if Jacksonville used the top-overall pick on an offensive tackle with Cam Robinson locked in at LT and former second-rounders Jawaan Taylor and Walker Little still around to duke it out at RT. But due to Pederson’s prerogative -- he did win a Super Bowl with the NFL's best offensive line in Philly, after all -- we slide Jacksonville Tulsa’s Tyler Smith in R2. Smith needs to start his career inside. No problemo, here. He'd be the Jags’ starting LG from Day 1. If the Taylor/Little duo flopped in 2022, Smith would be Jacksonville's 2023 starter at right tackle.
Kansas City Chiefs
1.29 EDGE Arnold Ebiketie
1.30 WR Christian Watson
2.50 OT Daniel Faalele
2.62 CB Cam Taylor-Britt
Kansas City needs a receiver in the wake of the Tyreek Hill trade, a right tackle to compete with Lucas Niang, secondary help, and an edge rusher. How they go about addressing those needs will be entirely dependent on what shakes out above them. Here, Ebiketie and Watson provide a high-upside one-two punch in the top-30, while Faalele gives the Chiefs a hulking right tackle to complete their offensive line.
Los Angeles Chargers
1.17 EDGE Jermaine Johnson II
In almost all of my previous mock drafts, I’ve given the Chargers' offensive line help at 1.17. But edge rusher is also a need, and I didn’t have Johnson dropping this far in previous iterations. Johnson is one guy in this class who's extremely difficult to pin down. We’ve heard as high as 1.4, and as low as early-20s.
1.12 S Kyle Hamilton
2.46 iOL Darian Kinnard
The Vikings need secondary help in the worst way. Trent McDuffie is worth this slot, but it’s unclear to me if he’ll pass the new administration’s length thresholds on the outside. Taking a projected top-5 overall player at No. 12 overall at a position of need is always good business, analytics-leaning front office or not. That's a scenario that very well may present itself to the Purple on Thursday night. For whatever it's worth, Jordan Davis would be the pick here had Hamilton not been available. I may be proven wrong, but I don't think the Vikings are going receiver in Round 1. I’m surprised when I read mocks that don’t have Minnesota addressing the offensive line within their first-three picks – the Vikings definitely need one more starter on the interior, and you could argue two if you’re ready to throw in the towel on Garrett Bradbury. Kinnard would be an immediate starter next to Bradbury – and I’d assume Minnesota would still select center insurance at some point on Day 3.
New England Patriots
1.21 LB Devin Lloyd
2.54 CB Roger McCreary
Two technically-sound, heady, tough defenders who would fill positions of need. Lloyd to the Patriots is one of my favorite potential marriages of Round 1.
New Orleans Saints
1.16 OT Trevor Penning
1.19 WR Chris Olave
2.49 QB Matt Corral
I love the idea of Trevor Penning – a bigger Kyle Turley – spending his career in New Orleans. Let's hope Penning doesn't fling any helmets, but he's a glass-chewing mauler who watches Saw movies with his mom for fun. And if Olave is available at 1.19, you’d have to expect the Saints to pounce. Once upon a time, the Saints stole an Ohio State receiver named Michael Thomas, and I think Olave would be a steal in the No. 19 hole. Those developments would defer the quarterback need to Day 2. I like Corral a lot – I comp him to Jake Plummer – and think he would be a huge value if available at the No. 49 slot. There would be a party on Canal Street if the Saints came out of Friday with this haul.
New York Giants
1.5 OT Evan Neal
1.7 CB Ahmad Gardner
2.36 EDGE Boye Mafe
What a bonanza this would be! It’s entirely possible that Neal and/or Gardner will end up in the top-3. But if they don’t, it’s also possible that they could filter down into these slots for the Giants. Another coup for the Giants arrives at 2.36 in the form of Minnesota’s freakish Mafe, who won’t need to wait around long on Friday night if he gets pushed out of Round 1.
New York Jets
1.4 OT Ikem Ekwonu
1.10 WR Jameson Williams
2.35 EDGE George Karlaftis
2.38 S Jalen Pitre
The 1-2-3 EDGE parade in this mock drops Ekwonu to the Jets. That’s a thrilling development, as is Jameson Williams’ availability at 1.10. The fun doesn’t stop there. Reading the tea leaves over the past two weeks, it appears that George Karlaftis may be in jeopardy of falling out of Round 1. If that happens, how perfect would he be for the Jets at the top of Round 2 if they’ve bypassed that position due to circumstance on Thursday?
1.15 CB Trent McDuffie
1.18 iOL Zion Johnson
2.51 S Jaquan Brisker
For multiple years, the Eagles have wanted to seriously upgrade their secondary. With this start to their draft, they will have finally climbed that mountain, adding two immediate starters to the back end. And while they’re at it, a plug-and-play starting guard for the next decade. Not a bad two days at the office.
1.20 QB Kenny Pickett
2.52 EDGE Nik Bonitto
The Pickett selection is admittedly a hedge. Malik Willis is Pittsburgh’s primary quarterback target. And if they can’t get him, it’s far from certain that Pickett would be Pittsburgh's backup option. However, I do strongly believe that Pittsburgh leaves Thursday night with a quarterback, perhaps via a trade-up. Carolina may be looking to trade down to take Pickett later than 1.6. The Panthers and Steelers, on the surface, appear to be a trade match made in heaven. Will they reach the finish line?
San Francisco 49ers
2.61 CB Tariq Woolen
The two immediate-need spots for the 49ers are cornerback and guard. The 49ers have a pair of R3 picks where they should still be able to add a quality OG prospect. At CB, on the other hand, the talent is about to fall off – perhaps leading the 49ers to shoot the moon on Woolen’s ceiling.
1.9 CB Derek Stingley Jr.
2.40 QB Desmond Ridder
2.41 EDGE David Ojabo
Seattle has interest in both Stingley and Thibodeaux. If Stingley’s here and Thibodeaux’s not, it might be a quick decision. Back in January, I didn’t think Stingley would end up in the top-15 due to the risk inherent to his evaluation. He assuaged some of that risk by returning from his Lisfranc injury, proving he was healthy, to post a size-adjusted athletic composite just under the 90th-percentile. That development guaranteed I'm going to be proven wrong and dunked on by the Cold Takes feed on Thursday night. Stingley in the top-10 is not the pick I would make, but I certainly understand gambling on traits. Speaking of that, Seattle does so again, this time at an enormous discount, by taking Ojabo 2.41. Meanwhile: Seattle has been active with the quarterbacks in this class, and I think there’s a decent chance they take one in the first two rounds. But while I heard Malik Willis’ meetings with Seattle management went great, the assumption from those I’ve talked to is that HC Pete Carroll wants to retool on the fly as quickly as he can. That explains Ridder – who I believe would beat out Drew Lock to start Week 1 – at 2.40.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1.27 iOL Kenyon Green
2.60 EDGE Josh Paschal
The Bucs are in win-now mode for at least one more draft with Tom Brady returning. Both Green and Paschal would likely start immediately for the Super Bowl contenders.
1.26 WR Treylon Burks
Some comp Burks to AJ Brown – who he’d be joining forces with in this scenario. I see Burks as more of a manufactured-touch guy initially. But what better teacher for him to learn from early in his career than Brown himself? Burks is talented enough to start immediately, even while refining his game, and the Titans will be asking him to do so now that Julio Jones has left town.
1.11 WR Garrett Wilson
2.47 LB Nakobe Dean
There’s been way too much smoke around Washington and this receiver class to go a different direction at 1.11. With Wilson on one side and Terry McLaurin on the other, Washington’s receiving corps would all of a sudden have real teeth. I like Dean more than this slot implies, certainly, and he’s been mocked higher during the process. But he’s lost steam as we’ve gotten closer to Draft Day, perhaps due to the NFL’s reservations over his measurables, and he may end up being a victim of the rise of his collegiate teammate Quay Walker. Walker might steal the first-round slot we all assumed would be going to a Georgia linebacker. Washington won't complain -- Dean at No. 47 is top-notch value any year.