Week 11 Quarterbacks
Updated 11/21 at 11:45 AM ET. Removed Lamar Jackson.
QB Notes: Josh Allen finally got his deep game going in Week 10, finding Stefon Diggs for completions of 57, 23 and 43 yards, and Gabriel Davis for gains of 49, 36 and 20. It came against the softest of opponents in the Jets, while slot man Cole Beasley barely played as he was seemingly hampered by his lingering rib issue. There is no guarantee Allen will do it again vs. a Colts defense that traditionally stamps out big plays, but Indy has been much more giving this season, allowing 7.7 yards per attempt and a league-worst 23 passing scores. … The Chiefs have taken advantage of a soft schedule to play shutdown defense since their Week 7 humiliation at the hands of Tennessee. Dak Prescott will be a challenge of a different order, one arriving in town with a 55.5 over/under. If the fantasy gods are listening, this will be the shootout of the year. … The Dolphins zero blitz/zero covered Lamar Jackson into Week 10 oblivion. His first chance to rebound comes against a Bears defense permitting over eight yards per attempt. Chicago is third to last in QB rushing yardage surrendered, though it has yet to face a dual threat.
For one week at least, Patrick Mahomes was back. With the Raiders declining to adopt the two-deep shell that has slowed Kansas City for weeks, Mahomes erupted for five scores and 406 yards. I don’t pretend to know how the Cowboys might defense Mahomes, though I do know they have been well organized under new DC Dan Quinn. This will be a major test of the Chiefs’, uhh, “backness” heading into their Week 12 bye. … Tom Brady came out of the Bucs’ bye week with a sleepy two-score, two-INT affair vs. a bad Football Team defense. The Giants are a decent group, one that slowed Patrick Mahomes and Derek Carr before their Week 10 bye. The Bucs are 10.5-point home favorites. Whereas many teams might #EstablishIt in that scenario, Tampa rarely stops throwing. … Kyler Murray (ankle) seems no better than 50-50 to return after missing the past two weeks. With Arizona’s bye on tap for Week 12, one more game fo rest may prove irresistible. It also may not be possible with the Cardinals needing to win this divisional tilt to keep pace in the NFC.
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Opposing Murray or Colt McCoy will be Russell Wilson, who was positively dreadful in his return from a broken finger. Wilson was inaccurate and scatterbrained, tossing a pair of awful end zone interceptions. The Cardinals have not been giving to enemy quarterbacks this season, though we have yet to see if that will hold up without J.J. Watt. Wilson volume could be hard to come by if Murray doesn’t play. … Jalen Hurts is a bit unlucky to be the QB19 by average points over the past three weeks as the Eagles have gone run heavy, as he has contributed 186 yards on the ground. Even for tough matchups like Sunday’s date with New Orleans, fantasy managers can count on Hurts to continue to provide QB1 weeks more often than not. … Aaron Rodgers came off the COVID list to his first scoreless start since Week 1, doing so in a plum spot with the Seahawks. The Vikings are not nearly as permissive through the air, though Rodgers rocked last year’s less-impressive unit twice. This game will be in climate-controlled Minnesota after last week’s snow-addled affair, while Rodgers will have had the entire week to practice and game plan, one with his near full supporting cast.
Perhaps you have seen “the chart” for Justin Herbert. Herbert’s Week 10 Next Gen passing grid was the nadir of the Chargers’ recent project to not let their sophomore quarterback throw deep. This, after Herbert was turning JAGs Jalen Guyton and Tyron Johnson into effective deep threats in 2020. This is something OC Joe Lombardi was infamous for during his time in Detroit. If the Chargers really aren’t going to cut Herbert loose, they are only hurting themselves. Herbert’s recent downturn has come against sophisticated defensive minds in Baltimore, New England and Minnesota. Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin will be the latest. Herbert finds himself on the QB1 borderline right now. … Neither the Bengals nor Joe Burrow headed into their bye week playing their best ball, though he has nevertheless provided multiple scores in every game but one. Week 11 opponent Las Vegas had been playing quietly stingy pass D before last Sunday’s Mahomes destruction. A QB1/2 hedge feels right. … Ryan Tannehill has notched rushing scores in each of the Titans’ two games without Derrick Henry, as well as four of his past five. He is up to QB14 status by average points. The Texans are finally a letup in the matchup department.
Justin Fields had easily his best game against the Steelers heading into the Bears’ bye week. The Ravens continue to allow the most passing yards in the league, though they have surrendered the second fewest quarterback rushing yards. There’s a chance Fields becomes the good matchup instead of vice versa, but he is a nice Week 11 upside bet as a streamer. … Tua Tagovailoa (finger) will make his first start since Week 8 against a Jets defense that has barely taken the field the past two weeks. Tagovailoa’s weapons leave a lot to be desired, but he should get home as a QB2 via what figure to be layup lines. … Two Cam Newton touchdowns on two touches will admittedly make one re-think their Cam/Panthers reunion take. My original thought was that Cam would merely stabilize D.J. Moore and Christian McCaffrey’s value without doing much for his own, though we must take stock of the fact of how much better this supporting cast is than Cam’s 2020 unit. Newton red zone carries would also save wear and tear on CMC. … Carson Wentz is a pure floor bet vs. a Bills defense permitting the fewest quarterback fantasy points. … Coming off his first three-touchdown effort, Mac Jones will have decent odds of another vs. the embarrassing Falcons. The problem is, the Pats figure to road grade on the ground. … Barely running with uncertain weapons, Daniel Jones seems ill-equipped to exploit the Bucs’ weak secondary.