Mike Evans hopes to begin regressing to the touchdown mean against the Browns, Christian Kirk looks to stay hot vs. the Ravens, and Keenan Allen wonders if he will be the only show in town in Arizona.
Updated 11/27 at 11:15 AM ET. Removed Allen Robinson.
Week 12 Receivers
WR Notes: Davante Adams has drawn 13-plus targets in three straight starts. Expect the wagon circling to continue against the Seahawks. … Stefon Diggs' only concern against the Lions will be that the Bills' recent establishment continues, especially as they try to protect Josh Allen's elbow tendons on a short week. … Hopefully it is just a coincidence that Justin Jefferson's supposedly minor toe injury coincided with his worst performance in two months. Now it coincides with a short-week matchup with the Patriots' lockdown pass defense. … I'm going to rush return Ja'Marr Chase (hip) to the upper echelon in his first appearance since Week 7. Chase was melting defenses before the injury, and the Titans are a perfect return spot. Only the Steelers and Vikings are coughing up more weekly passing yards. … As for Tee Higgins, he has the same great matchup as Chase. Higgins put up solid statlines during his teammate's absence, but he was no Chase. Hopefully it put to rest any outstanding sentiment that Chase and Higgins are largely interchangeable. Good as Higgins is, there is no question as to whom the alpha is. … It's a bad matchup for Amon-Ra St. Brown, but the volume is just so dependable.
St. Brown does not have CeeDee Lamb's ceiling, but ARSB's floor is ever so slightly higher and more consistent. For Lamb's part, I will give him the advantage over A.J. Brown as he averages 9.3 targets to AJB's 8.0. … I put Jaylen Waddle above both Lamb and Brown because he is simply getting home more frequently even as he averages a modest 7.5 looks. Waddle is being schemed some of the highest-quality handles in all of football. It helps that the Texans are as good as a matchup gets. … It is getting increasingly difficult to track the variables in the Cardinals' receiver corps. Rondale Moore (groin) is out. Marquise Brown (foot) is questionable. Greg Dortch's (thumb) status is unknown. Kyler Murray (hamstring) seems ready to return. At the end of the day, I would consider Brown's presence a positive for DeAndre Hopkins. Brown can soak up attention on the outside, while Hopkins may net a few more layups with Moore joining Zach Ertz on the shelf. It's likely a moot point, as Brown doesn't seem quite ready. Hopkins could be forced to spend some time in the slot.
Terry McLaurin is keeping Taylor Heinicke's job for him. Heinicke gives McLaurin low-quality but consistent opportunities. That is far more than could be said for Carson Wentz. Week 12 opponent Atlanta is handing out the second most receiver fantasy points. … Tom Brady has begun his regression to the touchdown mean. The same has to soon be true for Mike Evans, who has 10 red zone targets but only three total scores. Evans has reached 11 targets in three of his past four games. … Chris Olave is doing a good job of providing both floor and ceiling. The 49ers will be a daunting Week 12 test for Andy Dalton. … Speaking of the 49ers, Deebo Samuel finally restored order in Week 11 even as Brandon Aiyuk turned two receptions into two touchdowns. The valleys have become frustratingly more common, but Aiyuk's usage still provides the opportunities for weekly peaks. As for Aiyuk, he has shown enough to remain in the top 24 even when all 32 teams are playing. … Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf come off bye to nearly-identical statlines. Lockett has just been a little more consistent, with his better efficiency providing the difference.
Christian Kirk has rebounded from his mid-season malaise. The Ravens are a plus matchup coming off the Jaguars' bye. … Even with the Bills trying to protect Josh Allen's elbow, Gabe Davis is seeing more consistent looks as he stays healthy and remains on the field. The Lions' defense is ripe for the deep picking. … Keenan Allen looked like Keenan Allen in his Week 11 return. Mike Williams did not, making it only one catch before aggravating his ankle injury. Williams is practicing, giving him a shot to suit up. Even if Williams goes, Josh Palmer is probably the better WR3 bet as we wait for evidence Williams' ankle is going to hold up down the stretch. … As Patrick Kerrane pointed out on our Wednesday podcast, one reason Amari Cooper might be so streaky is his lack of consistent targets over the middle of the field. The Bucs aren't handing out many cheapies. … With Dallas Goedert (shoulder) out, I think I would rather bet on DeVonta Smith's volume odds than Courtland Sutton. Tie goes to the competent offense. … Mike White isn't being brought in to go crazy for the Jets' offense, but it certainly stands to reason the coaching staff trusts him to get the ball to Garrett Wilson more than Zach Wilson.
With 32 teams active, we can afford to give JuJu Smith-Schuster a bit of a post-injury hedge. Even with Mecole Hardman (abdomen) and Kadarius Toney (hamstring) sidelined, there is no other Chiefs wideout worth betting on in what will probably be a fairly sleepy home affair. … The George Pickens/Diontae Johnson switcheroo has happened for real. Neither are receiving high-quality targets, but Pickens continues to do more with his looks than Johnson. … In what projects as a tough week for the Packers' passing attack, I might bet on Allen Lazard's receptions floor over Christian Watson's touchdown potential. … Before last week's hiccup, Drake London had been seeing better volume even before Kyle Pitts' injury. He is now officially the only show in town. … We can point chase a bit with Treylon Burks, as the Titans will probably find themselves in point-chase mode with Joe Burrow likely to stack up yards vs. Tennessee's leaky pass D. … Darius Slayton has always seemed #GoodAtTheGame. With 58-plus yards in four straight weeks, he is getting his numbers even with the increased defensive attention that has come with being the Giants' only viable wideout. … It's not looking good for Justin Fields (shoulder), so it's not feeling great for Darnell Mooney.