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Week 14 Quarterbacks
QB Notes: The closest thing there has been to a week in, week out reliable quarterback this season, Tom Brady will be encountering a humbled Bills team as a 3.5-point home favorite in a game with a 53.5 over/under. Brady has been held below two scores only two times all year. One way or another, he will get home vs. this Tre’Davious White-less defense. … Kyler Murray welcomed himself back as the QB1 overall despite attempting only 15 passes in Chicago. Each of his 10 carries, 59 rushing yards and two ground scores were new season highs. The Rams are a tougher matchup than Chicago, but Murray has such a variety of ways to provide fantasy points. Averaging 24.8 per week, which is second to only Brady, Murray has been held below 20 just twice. … The QB1 by both average and total points over the past five weeks, Justin Herbert encounters a decent Giants defense, but one that is being placed under severe strain by its offense. With Jake Fromm unlikely to sustain drives, Herbert is going to get all the opportunity he needs. Averaging a whopping 39 weekly passes, Herbert has yet to attempt fewer than 34 throws.
One of this season’s rare steady operators, Dak Prescott will be on 10 days rest with his supporting cast finally at something approximating 100 percent health. The Football Team is doing all it can to limit enemy volume, but Jack Del Rio’s defense is still allowing the most QB fantasy points. Derek Carr attempted 38 throws last Sunday. Prescott is going to be fine. … It is gut check time for Josh Allen, who nevertheless remains the QB3 by average points following Monday evening’s humiliation. The Bucs’ defense is as healthy as it has been all year, though it remains short-handed at the back end. Allen is one of the best bets fantasy managers can make. … First, Lamar Jackson threw a career-worst four interceptions. Then, he took a career-worst seven sacks. Now, he is rematching with the Browns defense that picked him off four times. There’s a lot going on here, including the fact that Jackson is still rushing but hasn’t found the end zone on the ground since Week 2. That seems like a number that has to positively regress in the near future, but banking on that isn’t a “plan.” Neither is simply “betting on Jackson’s talent,” but what other choice do we have?
Aaron Rodgers continues to produce QB1 returns by the sheer virtue of being stable. He’s provided two-plus scores in 9-of-11 starts. His lack of ceiling has been offset by his consistency, while a finally-healthy receiver corps might actually allow for some upside. … Matthew Stafford was battered and humiliated by the Cardinals in Week 4, needing garbage time to get home. Even without J.J. Watt, Arizona has been a stay-away matchup for enemy passers. We place the QB1 bet on Stafford because the Rams remain pass-heavy no matter the situation, and Monday evening’s 51.5 total can’t be faded. … Patrick Mahomes is the QB10 by average points over the past five weeks, a sentence that would have been unthinkable any time in the past three years. His best start during that time period was his five-score drubbing of the Raiders three weeks ago, though we will go with the rule rather than the exception of his recent performance. … With Dalvin Cook (shoulder) sidelined for Week 13, Kirk Cousins reached 40 attempts for just the third time this season. He also lost Adam Thielen to a high-ankle sprain, while Cook is trending in the right direction for Thursday night against the Steelers. Cousins’ QB1 floor should remain intact, but it isn't looking like much of a ceiling week.
You will probably never see an uglier QB3 performance, but a QB3 performance it was from Taysom Hill against the Cowboys. The huge day came even without a rushing touchdown, though Hill did provide 11/101 on the ground. He needs to be hedged for Week 14 with his busted finger making him an injury risk, but the upside is enormous vs. the pathetic Jets. … Russell Wilson showed some signs of life with a two-score Week 13. Now he gets the Texans, while the Seahawks lack a coherent, viable rushing attack. These have been famous last words in this offense, but 250/2 is an eminently reasonable expectation for Week 14 vs. Houston’s squishy defense. … Joe Burrow finally got a pass-friendly game script in Week 13. Although he was quite bad in the process, he produced QB8 results. Re-sparking Tee Higgins’ upside will be a plus development going forward, but fantasy managers have reason to remain leery of Burrow’s volume. The 49ers will try to slow the game down and limit possessions, though a shootout is well within the range of possibilities. … Withering on the vine before Tennessee’s Week 13 bye, Ryan Tannehill’s streamer appeal gets a jolt from the potential return of Julio Jones. The matchup (vs. JAX) doesn’t hurt.
Ben Roethlisberger has three multi-score efforts over his past four starts after posting only one across his first seven appearances. Vegas is surprisingly bearish on Thursday evening’s scoring environment (44.0), but Roethlisberger’s floor is that of a mid-range QB2. … Cam Newton comes with more ceiling than either Tannehill or Roethlisberger, though it’s hard to know what to make of his floor following his 5-of-21 Week 12 fiasco. There is also the matter of the Panthers wanting to go fully established after firing OC Joe Brady. That is despite the season-ending loss of Christian McCaffrey. Consider Cam a risk/reward streamer vs. the Falcons’ admittedly palatable defense. … With the 49ers’ backfield in injury disarray, we could get a bigger dose of Jimmy Garoppolo vs. the Bengals’ wildly inconsistent defense. ... Taylor Heinicke’s wild man upside has been curbed a bit since the Football Team went run heavy following its Week 9 bye. Dallas does present a one-off streaming opportunity. … If you are streaming Justin Fields vs. the Packers’ stingy pass defense, you are hoping for some QB2 lightning in a bottle.