Week 15 Quarterbacks
QB Notes: The Bills held Lamar Jackson to his lowest rushing total since Week 1 so he compensated with three passing touchdowns. You just can’t keep the MVP down. Over his quad scare, Jackson will be ready to destruct the Jets’ packed-in defense. … Drew Brees has provided at least three passing scores in 3-of-5 home starts, averaging 388 yards. Now he will be gunning for the literal all-time touchdown record vs. the Colts’ fading defense. … Deshaun Watson is better when Will Fuller plays, but the speedster’s hamstring status remains unclear. A 50.5 over/under gives Watson road cover for a road showdown with Ryan Tannehill. … How much longer can Patrick Mahomes stay down? It can’t be long, though the Broncos will arrive in Kansas City fresh off of frustrating Watson, if not containing him in fantasy. Of concern is the Chiefs being 9.5-point home favorites. An early salt away is possible. … Tentatively expected to play through his thumb injury, Jameis Winston will be missing Mike Evans (hamstring) in Detroit, but he will also be facing one of the league’s worst defenses without any semblance of a running game. Throw in the fact that Tampa Bay’s own awful defense should at least keep the proceedings close, and game script should remain passing favorable for The Turnover One. Only three quarterbacks are averaging more weekly points.
Ryan Tannehill, fantasy semifinals QB1: This Is Happening. The ex-Dolphins bust continues to produce big roto days on limited volume. Allowing the sixth most enemy quarterback points, the Texans are not the place to shy away. The 50.5 over/under is gleaming. … Russell Wilson has just four touchdowns over his past four starts, averaging 229 yards in the process. The established Seahawks continue to do it as only they know how. Although they are taking on water everywhere, the Panthers are (far) more vulnerable on the ground than through the air. … Despite frustrating touchdown totals over his past three starts, Dak Prescott has provided at least 334 passing yards in 4-of-5 games. The Rams’ defense has really been playing well of late, though Prescott will be operating at home in a contest with a 49 over/under. Maybe he won’t be great in real life, but QB1 numbers should be there. … Opposing Prescott will be suddenly-competent Jared Goff, who is averaging 9.68 yards over his past 74 attempts. @DAL has traditionally been the kind of place Goff would struggle, but the Cowboys’ D has been highly ordinary since the schedule stiffened.
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The 49ers couldn’t limit Jimmy Garoppolo’s volume in New Orleans and he responded with 349 yards and four scores on 35 attempts. He might not clear 30 in a game where the 49ers are 10.5-point home favorites, but that also won’t be necessary to get his fantasy numbers against a Falcons D permitting the fourth most QB fantasy points. … With Adam Thielen (hamstring) finally trending toward a return, Kirk Cousins will have his full supporting cast for a game that is totaled just 45 but could always turn into a shootout. Philip Rivers and Cousins don’t know how to do normal. … Fading badly against a tough part of the schedule, Kyler Murray will nevertheless serve as the Browns’ first real post-Myles Garrett test. Murray remains the QB11 by average points despite his recent horrid play. … Aaron Rodgers’ five-game high-water mark for yardage is 243. You’re probably frustrated I kept him in the top 10 for as long as I did. Rodgers has grown prone to these spells in recent years before snapping out of them, but a Bears D that’s surrendered the fourth fewest passing touchdowns (14) is not going to make it easy.
Tom Brady is averaging an Osweiler-ian 5.56 yards over his past 213 attempts, a span which covers five games. With the Bengals’ defensive signals in tow (I kid ... I think), hopefully he can goose that number against a secondary coughing up 8.4 yards every time the opposing QB attempts a pass. … Baker Mayfield had a barely-there day vs. the Bengals’ awful defense but gets a mulligan in the Cardinals’ even-worse unit. No team is allowing more quarterback fantasy points. … Nightmarishly bad against the Ravens, Josh Allen gets an even tougher test in the Steelers, who now boast fantasy’s No. 1 overall defense. Allen’s scrambling ability nevertheless keeps him in the QB2 mix for the second week of the fantasy playoffs. Allen’s eight rushing touchdowns are eighth in the league. … The matchup is terrible and Matt Ryan will be missing Calvin Ridley, but it is impossible to fully fade one of the 21st century’s volume kings. Ryan’s 481 attempts are sixth in the league even though he’s missed a game. Only Tom Brady is averaging more weekly passes.
Mitchell Trubisky is good now? Even in his excellent Week 14 performance, two of his three passing touchdown drives could have easily been derailed by picks. The Packers permit the sixth fewest QB fantasy points. … With DeVante Parker (concussion) trending in the right direction, Ryan Fitzpatrick remains on the streaming radar against a Giants Defense that’s so bad it couldn’t even stop the one-weapon Eagles on Monday Night Football. … Almost literally, Carson Wentz has no wide receivers left. Even against a nonexistent defense like the Redskins, that’s a problem. … It took all of two starts for the NFL world to get acquainted with the yin and the yang of Drew Lock. The Chiefs’ No. 6 by DVOA pass defense is a potential disaster spot for the rookie quarterback, but his willingness to pull the trigger down the field gives him undeniable upside no matter the matchup. He is worth gambling on over no-ceiling plays like Derek Carr. … Eli Manning threw for 24 yards after halftime vs. the Eagles. Lol. … Seemingly worse every time he plays, Gardner Minshew will now be missing D.J. Chark (foot). … Captain David Blough could maybe run into one vs. the Bucs, though Marvin Jones’ absence hurts.