Patrick Mahomes looks to put MVP distance between himself and the competition against Seattle, Justin Fields hunts for quarterback rushing history, and Aaron Rodgers attempts to spike a week in Miami.
Other positions: Running Back | Receiver | Tight End/Kickers/Defense
Week 16 Quarterbacks
QB Notes: Held below 320 yards passing one time in his past nine starts, Patrick Mahomes gets the QB1 overall call for Week 2 of the fantasy playoffs. The matchup is pristine in the Seahawks, and while it's not exactly going to be nice in Kansas City on Christmas Eve — forecasted high of 18 — the weather will not be as big of an issue for Mahomes as it is projected to be for some of his rivals. … Which brings us to Josh Allen and Justin Fields. Facing off in Chicago, the dual-threat fantasy superstars will be playing in some of the worst NFL weather in recent memory. The current projected “high” is 10 degrees, with sustained winds north of 20 miles per hour. 20 MPH is something of a cutoff for does/doesn't affect playing conditions. Throw in wind chills that will be far below zero on the shores of Lake Michigan, and you have some of the most miserable conditions imaginable. The reason Allen and Fields are not dropped out of the QB1 rankings is that their rushing threat becomes that much more important when the skies are looking so unfriendly. Fields is also openly saying he is motivated to break Lamar Jackson's single-season quarterback rushing record. The situation will merit monitoring, but fantasy managers can rely on the ground portion of Allen and Fields' dual-threats.
Joe Burrow vs. Justin Herbert hasn't been much of a 2022 contest on the real-life gridiron, while Burrow is comfortably winning the fantasy contest, as well. Herbert gets the Week 16 advantage because he has a better matchup in domed Indianapolis while Burrow will be one of many fantasy stars braving the not-so-wonderful outdoors in Boston. It helps that Herbert is finally playing better, clearing 313 yards each of the past three weeks. Of course, he has only two touchdowns to show for it. Burrow would be a defensible choice. I think just enough Week 16 blocks are stacked in Herbert's favor. … Finally, someone who doesn't have to worry about the weather. Returning from a three-game road trip that culminated in snowy Buffalo, Tua Tagovailoa will be home in Miami with a week-leading 49.5 over/under against the Packers. … Lamar Jackson (knee) had been targeting Week 16 as a return, but he has yet to resume practicing. He will slot in as the QB7 or 8 if he gets the call against the Falcons. As for Tyler Huntley, he has proven to be a fool's gold streamer despite his dual-threat. There is just no way to stack up passing production with this nonexistent supporting cast.
Kirk Cousins has sailed past 420 yards passing in each of his past two starts. Circumstance, of course, has played a part, but his Week 16 setup is excellent. Minnesota's 48.0 over/under with the Giants is the third highest of Week 16 while the G-Men are merely the 20th best pass defense by EPA per dropback. Throw in the fact that this game is being played in the safety of a dome, and Cousins has one of the semifinals' highest floors. … Dak Prescott's Eagles matchup is one of the worst of Week 16, but it will at least be played in domed Dallas. Prescott continues to supply a high floor despite a frustrating lack of ceiling. … Trevor Lawrence is one of Week 16's toughest ranks. He'll be playing in wet and windy conditions in New York vs. an elite Jets pass defense. He's also as hot as any quarterback in football right now and just got home against the Cowboys' even better pass D. With so many Week 16 question marks, we'll place a bet on Lawrence's ongoing breakout, with the caveat that you should maybe check the weather an hour or two before kickoff. Depending on the forecast, I've had Lawrence as high as QB9 and as low as QB12. I won't be dropping him lower.
Geno Smith would be looking a whole lot better were Tyler Lockett (finger) in the lineup. He still has a league-leading Week 16 total (49.5) against the Chiefs in a game where the Seahawks are going to have to be passing, especially if Ken Walker (ankle) sits. The weather will be bad, though seemingly not “shut it down” bad. … Aaron Rodgers' eye tests have been improving and Romeo Doubs' return greatly deepens a thin receiver corps. Only the Seahawks are permitting more enemy QB fantasy points than Miami. Rodgers is all but guaranteed to finish somewhere in the QB10-15 range. … As miserable as he appears on the field, Tom Brady has supplied multiple scores in four of his past five starts. The Cardinals have become a failed state. It's difficult to see Brady finishing outside the top 15 on Christmas night. … The Panthers have been a top-10 pass defense since firing Matt Rhule ahead of Week 6. They're not the best matchup for Jared Goff, but he remains on the QB1/2 borderline because of his bountiful weapons and creative play-calling.
Daniel Jones continues to do just enough on the ground to offset his nearly-nonexistent passing production. The Vikings are a strong semifinals matchup. … Deshaun Watson has flat-out stunk as a Brown, but he remains capable of breaking out at any given moment. Hurting his Week 16 cause is positively dreadful predicted weather in Cleveland. … No longer a doormat pass defense since getting T.J. Watt back, the Steelers also aren't going to erase Derek Carr. He has been the league's most ordinary quarterback in 2022. … The bottom line with Brock Purdy is that he appears capable of being managed and manipulated to two weekly scores in Kyle Shanahan's offense. You are hoping to stay afloat by starting him, not going spiked-week hunting. … With A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert at his disposal, Gardner Minshew is a justifiable QB2 for superflex desperados. … The Titans are finally getting Treylon Burks (ankle) back, but Ryan Tannehill is out with an ankle injury. Tennessee lived in abject terror of letting Malik Willis throw the last time Tanne was sidelined, though his legs give him wild card upside. … The bottom 10 quarterbacks might be as bad as they have ever been for fantasy. You are flying QB2 blind beyond the QB20 or 21 spot.
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