Updated 12/22 at 10:00 AM ET. Removed Derrick Henry. Added Dion Lewis as RB26. Regarding this report from the Bengals' Marisa Contipelli: "Joe Mixon is active but he’s been fighting a stomach bug since yesterday. Keep an eye on his workload – not yet known how much he will play today against the Dolphins. #Bengals." ... I'm leaving him as is in the rankings. Any move I could make would be a blind guess.
Week 16 Quarterbacks
QB Notes: What is likely to be Lamar Jackson’s final start of the regular season will come against a Browns team that held him to one of his shakiest efforts of the year. Myles Garrett has since left the building. … Russell Wilson hasn’t had a three-touchdown day since Week 9. It came against the Bucs at home. The Cardinals at home are his best matchup since. No one silver platters more QB fantasy points than Arizona. … Deshaun Watson hasn’t had a 300-yard day passing since Week 7. That’s a number the Bucs have allowed opposing quarterbacks to reach six times, though not since Week 10. With Will Fuller another game healthier, it’s ultimately difficult to envision Watson not smashing. … Patrick Mahomes finally looked like Patrick Mahomes against the Broncos. Denver is roughly as stingy against the pass as Week 16 opponent Chicago. With everything on the line, you can trust Mahomes to find a way. … Headed to Tennessee, Drew Brees will be playing outdoors for just the third time in the past calendar year. One of those games was his thumb-shortened affair in Los Angeles. Currently sitting on every meaningful NFL passing record, Brees’ fire will be warmed by a 51 over/under.
Jameis Winston will be missing his Nos. 1, 2 and 4 receivers … against a defense allowing the third most quarterback fantasy points. An immovable object vs. an irresistible force. Vegas isn’t concerned, installing the no-run-game Bucs as one-point home favorites for a contest with a 53 over/under. Winston has been held below 300 yards once in his past nine starts. … New Orleans is a concerning quarterback matchup, but the main weekly question for Ryan Tannehill is volume. As was the case against the Texans, he should have it vs. the Saints in a tilt with a 51 over/under. Tannehill’s past eight finishes are: QB4, QB6, QB19, QB2, QB12, QB4, QB12, QB11. ... The Jaguars have laid down their sword, getting destroyed by pretty much everyone at this point. Matt Ryan is well positioned for his best performance in over two months. … Dak Prescott is battling a shoulder issue heading into a glorious draw with the Eagles. I originally had him seventh before bumping him to ninth. Double check Prescott’s health before Sunday, but even if the Cowboys announce that he will be playing hurt, you will be hard pressed to find a better option on the waiver wire. For what it's worth, Jerry Jones has insisted his quarterback will be fine.
Kyler Murray is quietly up to 504 rushing yards, one of the main reasons he checks in as the QB11 by average points amongst currently healthy quarterbacks. Just three teams are permitting more passing yards than the Seahawks. … Adam Thielen will be another week healthier for Kirk Cousins, who will be playing at home with Dalvin Cook’s (shoulder) status uncertain. … Aaron Rodgers has provided more than one touchdown once in his past six starts. Although none of his pass catchers have tough individual matchups, the Vikings remain bottom 10 in QB fantasy points allowed. The Vikings’ stout run defense does mean the Packers will have to pass more than usual. … All the way up to 10th in QBR, Ryan Fitzpatrick is Week 16’s top streamer against a Bengals Defense surrendering 8.2 yards per attempt, as well as the ninth most QB fantasy points. … Having Greg Ward as his No. 1 receiver hasn’t prevented Carson Wentz from passing for eight touchdowns over his past three starts. Wentz has stepped up when the Eagles needed him most. The Cowboys contained Jared Goff in Week 15 but coughed up big games to Mitchell Trubisky and Josh Allen in the two weeks prior.
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Jimmy Garoppolo has been too scattershot to rely on as anything other than a mid-range QB2. Week 16 opponent Los Angeles (Rams) has held Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray to QB20, QB26 and QB20 finishes, respectively, since getting immolated by Lamar Jackson in prime time. … Mitchell Trubisky has produced as the QB9, QB3 and QB5 over his past three starts. Bears coach Matt Nagy opted to go down swinging instead of drowning. The Chiefs have been tough on enemy quarterbacks, but Trubisky’s QB2 ceiling outshines his floor. … Sticking with the Weeks 13-15 theme, Jared Goff has been the QB11, QB14 and QB6. The 49ers are too tough to treat Goff as anything other than a middling QB2, but coach Sean McVay has made enough tweaks to prevent Goff from falling to the QB24-and-beyond hinterlands. … Philip Rivers has thrown three-or-more interceptions in three of his past five starts. Eliminated from playoff contention, I’m worried the Chargers might finally be ready to make a statement benching. That leaves Rivers as an unideal streamer even for plum spots like this week’s date with the Raiders.
We are seeing the worst football of Tom Brady’s career, or at least since Randy Moss brought the Patriots’ offense into the modern age. Now his elbow is a complicating factor. Brady’s worst start of all came against the Bills in Week 4. … The Pats are as foreboding for Josh Allen as the Bills are for Brady. Allen looked like a high school quarterback in the sides’ first meeting in Week 4. Allen is averaging 175 yards passing over his past four starts. Only his legs are keeping him in the top 20. … Daniel Jones (ankle) is tentatively expected to return against Washington. Bill Callahan’s team has been playing decent defense, but this certainly feels like a spot where Jones could blunder into a top-12 day. … Stream Andy Dalton if you must. The Dolphins give up the fifth most quarterback fantasy points. Just know “ceiling” is not a concept that exists for Dalton in 2019. … Personally, I would rather bet on Drew Lock running into a few big plays than Dalton paying his bills vs. the ‘Fins. … Gardner Minshew is still good enough to break the Raiders’ heart. The way the Falcons’ defense has been playing of late, they are more liable to break Minshew than vice versa.