Updated 10/31 at 11:30 AM ET. Moved Dak Prescott into the 20s. Just too risky.
Week 8 Quarterbacks
QB Notes: Josh Allen comes off bye as the QB1 by average points. He will be facing a Dolphins defense that has collapsed off its imposing 2020 form. Even when the Dolphins were good, Allen nuked them twice last year before a quieter effort earlier this season. He will be ready. … Although some people apparently think Patrick Mahomes is no longer a top-five quarterback (lol), he had at least been providing the fantasy returns … until last week. Previously the QB1 overall, Mahomes has slipped to QB3 after a turnover-marred, QB21 outing vs. the Titans. Whatever the Chiefs’ greater troubles, expect an immediate Mahomes fantasy bounce back against a Giants defense that hasn’t stopped anyone in the past month other than Sam Darnold. … Kyler Murray has “cooled” a bit over his past four starts, finishing as the QB10, QB23, QB7 and QB7. Curiously, Murray boasts a rushing line of 43/126/3/2.9 YPC. He has not found the end zone on the ground since Week 3. A Packers defense that has surrendered the second most QB rushing yardage would be a great place for Murray to get his legs back on track.
Rampaging after the briefest of Week 4/5 lulls, Matthew Stafford will be operating as a two-touchdown favorite for the second consecutive week when the Rams travel to Houston. In a positive for his fantasy prospects, the Texans seem likely to be returning Tyrod Taylor (hamstring), who might actually keep the game interesting with a touchdown or two. … With at least three touchdowns in four straight starts, Dak Prescott comes off bye to a 55 over/under in the Vikings. Concerns are Prescott’s calf issue and a Vikings D that gets smoked on the ground while allowing just seven passing touchdowns in six games. … Jalen Hurts is pushing his “bad in real life, excellent in fantasy” formula to the breaking point, but it hasn’t gotten there yet. The status quo should hold for Week 8 vs. a Lions defense unsurprisingly getting slammed for awful rate stats, including a 9.5 YPA against and 68.0 completion percentage. … Reaching new heights with OROY frontrunner Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Burrow has his best matchup of the young season in the Jets, who just coughed up a QB10 day to Mac Jones even though Mac lost a 25-yard touchdown pass to Nelson Agholor. Yet to even pick off a pass, the Jets have nothing with which to slow Cincinnati’s dynamic duo.
It’s possible I’m getting too cute with Kirk Cousins, but it is difficult to see how he finishes with fewer than 40 attempts against the Cowboys. 50 is possible. Dallas permits the fifth most passing yards due in large part to teams having to throw to keep up. … Tom Brady overcame a 55.6 completion percentage and 5.9 YPA against the Bears to throw for four scores and finish as the QB6. He might not be as lucky in a road date with a Saints defense allowing the second fewest quarterback fantasy points. … The worst start of Justin Herbert’s career came last season against the Patriots. His second worst arguably came before the Chargers’ Week 7 bye. For Week 8, we are making a simple volume bet for the quarterback of a team that can’t run the ball. Herbert’s season low for attempts is 38. … Ryan Tannehill still isn’t getting where he needs to go in fantasy, but his real life play has improved to the point that we can start making these QB1 bets again. Tannehill was subdued by the Colts in his first 2020 matchup but rocked them in the second. Indy has permitted the second most passing scores through seven weeks, and is coughing up 8.0 yards per attempt.
Playing genuinely good football, Carson Wentz has an aces Week 7 matchup in a Titans defense still allowing the sixth most quarterback fantasy points even after last week’s Patrick Mahomes erasure. … I’ll spare you the Aaron Rodgers pep talk. He’s the ultimate any given Sunday quarterback blah blah blah. It’s hard to place a short-week QB1 bet on a man missing half his starting skill corps. Arizona is most vulnerable on the ground. The Packers’ likely formula is not difficult to discern. … We might not know who Daniel Jones is throwing to until Monday evening. We do know he will be throwing against a Chiefs defense that has completely collapsed. Only the Football Team is handing out more QB fantasy points. … Just like that, Matt Ryan has provided multiple scores in every start since Week 1. He bookended the Falcons’ Week 6 bye with his two best outings of the year. Impenetrable against a soft schedule to begin the season, the Panthers’ defense now finds itself bailing out water on the reg. … Jameis Winston will be making his first start against his former team. Despite the Bucs’ volume struggles as a pass defense, they are allowing fewer than 7.0 yards per attempt. They just sent Justin Fields back to the stone age. I think Saints coach Sean Payton will guard against an overly emotional Winston start with a conservative game plan despite the Bucs’ air vulnerabilities.
People only remember the interceptions, but Tua Tagovailoa was the QB1 in Week 7. The Bills surrender the fewest quarterback fantasy points, but I think Tagovailoa’s volume will be enough for a top-18 day as a two-touchdown road ‘dog. … No one needed 10 days rest more than Teddy Bridgewater. Refreshed and recuperated, he returns with Jerry Jeudy back in his quiver vs. a Football Team “defense” allowing the most quarterback fantasy points. The best possible fit for Bridgewater’s skill-set, Jeudy is going to do more with his No. 2 receiver targets than Tim Patrick. … Opposing Bridgewater will be Taylor Heinicke, who is getting home in fantasy as a bizarro Jalen Hurts. He’s throwing a little more than Hurts, running a little less but turning in better “fake” performances than real. … Mac Jones is game managing well enough to begin drawing some streamer attention, but the Chargers are a bad place to start. Only three teams permit fewer passing yards. … Playing the Falcons looks good on paper, but Sam Darnold needs to be ranked as someone at risk of in-game benchings from this point forward. This is not a situation where you can make more than a low-end QB2 gamble. … Similar to Sam Darnold, Justin Fields needs to be considered a pine threat.