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Larry Fitzgerald
By the Numbers

DFS Value Finder: Week 6

by Nick Mensio
Updated On: October 12, 2019, 8:11 pm ET

This is a simple, straightforward piece. At the end of the week, I’m taking our weekly composite staff rankings from our Season Pass section and comparing those rankings as it pertains to players we see as starting caliber options to the pricing across the two major DFS sites in hopes of discovering some value. Easy as that.


David Johnson vs. Falcons -- RB6 (FanDuel, RB9, $6,900)


Johnson missed practice Wednesday and Thursday with a back injury but latest word out of Arizona is Johnson is expected to play Sunday. He’s coming off a 20-touch effort against the lowly Bengals where Johnson registered a season-high 156 yards. Johnson has seen at least 17 touches in 4-of-5 games. His injury is an obvious concern and could affect his snap share, but Johnson is facing an atrocious Falcons Defense that annually stinks at covering running backs who catch passes. This game’s 51.5-point total is second-highest on the board.


Tyler Lockett at Browns -- WR10 (FanDuel, WR21, $6,300)


Lockett remains criminally underpriced on FanDuel, which seems to be a weekly occurrence at this point. Lockett’s volume is obviously the big concern with him; he’s seen four targets or fewer in three of the Seahawks’ five games, but Lockett does command the largest piece of the pie there. The Browns are getting starting outside CBs Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams back this week, but Lockett should avoid them for the most part, as he runs most of his routes out of the slot. Lockett has the best Weeks 1-5 quarterback, Russell Wilson, throwing him the ball.


Larry Fitzgerald vs. Falcons -- WR15 (FanDuel, WR32, $5,600)


FanDuel refuses to raise Fitzgerald’s price. It’s steadily stuck in the mid-to-high $5K range. The Arizona offense has spun its tires in the mud most of the first five weeks, but they finally gained some traction last week in Cincinnati and now come home to face a similarly-bad defense. Fitzgerald is 11th in the NFL in targets. Even just chasing his volume makes sense at this ludicrous price. Breakout appeal is there in a game with a 51.5-point total played in a dome.


Calvin Ridley at Cardinals -- WR25 (FanDuel, WR33, $5,500)


Ridley is coming off a 5-88-1 rebound effort last week in Houston. Ridley had caught just one pass in his previous two games prior to Week 5. Look for him to build on it against a similarly-bad Arizona defense that can’t seem to settle on a group of cornerbacks while they await Patrick Peterson’s return next week. Ridley should be involved heavily in this likely shootout while playing in the league’s pass-happiest offense with Matt Ryan.

D.J. Chark vs. Saints -- WR16 (DraftKings, WR25, $5,500)


After a slow Week 4, sophomore breakout Chark went nuclear last Sunday against the Panthers, hanging 8-164-2 on Carolina. It’s time we just start plugging and playing Chark until his price meets his production. Chark is averaging 97 yards and one score per game through five weeks. Top Saints CB Marshon Lattimore presents a stiff test, but this game has some sneaky breakout appeal with Gardnew Minshew playing like the Rookie of the Year. Chark is averaging over eight targets per game and is top-10 in the NFL in air yards with Minshew.


Courtland Sutton vs. Titans -- WR24 (DraftKings, WR31, $5,000)


Sutton has quietly seen at least seven targets in every game so far and has taken over as Joe Flacco’s No. 1 target after Emmanuel Sanders looked to be that guy Weeks 1-2. Sanders is banged up and not 100% healthy, while Sutton is realizing Year 2 breakout potential. He leads the Broncos in air yards and is fresh off ripping Chargers No. 1 CB Casey Hayward for 4-92-1 last week. Tennessee is merely middle of the road in pass defense. This doesn’t look like a game to target too heavily in daily formats, but Sutton and Derrick Henry certainly jump out.

Nick Mensio

Nick Mensio has been covering the NFL for NBC Sports Edge since 2012. He can be found on Twitter at @NickMensio.