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Drew Timme
USA Today Sports
Odds and Ends

Baylor vs. Gonzaga deep dive on best bets

by Corey Parson
Updated On: April 5, 2021, 2:54 pm ET

Tonight is one of the biggest nights on the sports betting calendar. The NCAA title game is always one of the heaviest bet games of the year, regardless of sport. This season we get what should be an all-time classic game when the undefeated Gonzaga Bulldogs face the Baylor Bears. 

When it comes to games like this, I'm not really trying to handicap it. I want the best information possible. The traders with our partners at PointsBet do a fine job at passing along great information, but for this game, I wanted to dig a little bit deeper, so I reached out to a few of the other shops I have placed wagers with in the past about this historic matchup.

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Baylor Bears (+170) vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs (-200) Point Spread: (-4.5) Total: 159 

Gonzaga opened up this game as a 5-point favorite with a Total of 159.5 on PointsBet. Currently, on PointsBet, Gonzaga is a 4.5-point favorite with a 159 total. This season, Gonzaga is 16-13-2 ATS and 16-15 to the Over. Baylor is 19-10 ATS and 18-11 to the Over. 

When I spoke with one shop this morning, I was told they opened up the game with Gonzaga as a 5-point favorite and a Total of 160. The first two wagers placed were max-limit bets on the Under. 

That same shop told me that 60% of the bets on the spread are backing Baylor, but they had also taken several six-figure bets on the Gonzaga money line. However, they mentioned that bettors were not trying to middle the game. 

The opening money line on this game had Gonzaga laying -214, but currently, PointsBet has the money line at -200. Interestingly, the shops that offered a look-ahead line on this game had Gonzaga as a 6-point favorite with a total of 149. The current total is 10 points higher than that.

In the Most Outstanding Player of the tournament market, Jalen Suggs was +1000 to win the award before Gonzaga's game against UCLA on Saturday. Suggs is currently +120 on Pointset, but I would not sleep on Drew Timme at -105. 

Finally, if you are betting Baylor at +4.5, you should also put something on Davion Mitchell to win the M.O.P at +225. If Baylor wins the game, it will be because of Mitchell's defense on Suggs.

Update: As I'm writing this article, some shops are starting to move this line to Gonzaga -4. On PointsBet the -4.5 is juiced to -105.   

Below are my picks on this game. 

Gonzaga  -4 

Under 159.5 (I'm buying the half point) 

Drew Timme for M.O.P. (-105)  

PointsBet Parlay - Gonzaga money line / Under 159.5 (+160) 

PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner, and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links. 

Corey Parson

Corey Parson is an award-winning, multi-sport fantasy and sports betting expert who has worked for SiriusXM, The Athletic, Sports Illustrated and more. He is from Harlem, NY, yet is somehow a Dallas Cowboys fan. You can follow him on Twitter @thefantasyexec.