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Cameron Davis
Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports
Odds and Ends

BMW Championship: Back Davis in Delaware

by Brad Thomas
Updated On: August 16, 2022, 5:21 pm ET

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The FedEx Cup kicked it into high gear with the second round of the playoffs. This week the PGA Tour heads to Wilmington Country Club for the BMW Championship. This is the first trip to Wilmington Country Club for the PGA, but the Robert Trent Jones-designed course underwent renovations to make the course more challenging and suitable for Tour players. With this being the first Tour event held at this course, the historical data is nonexistent. After reading the scorecard and watching a few flyovers, I have a few golfers I'd like to target in the placement market. These odds can be found on PointsBet Sportsbook:

Cam Davis to finish top-20 +175

While this is not the strategy, I'm using to bet on Davis this week, I do think some part of Davis wants to hold it down for his fellow Aussie Cameron Smith after he was assessed a 2-stroke penalty before Sunday's round and then withdrew ahead of the BMW Championship citing a hip injury. The all-Aussie group chat would be humming, should Davis. Even a top-20 finish would get him the ole “atta boy” from Smith.

Outside of the narrative play, Davis is a good bet this week. Davis is 12th on my primary model, coming off a 13th at last week's St. Jude, and has finished top-20 in his previous four events. He's playing the kind of golf where you have no issues betting on him to win or in the placement market.

When modeling, I wanted to attack golfers who were long-ish off the tee, good ball strikers and avoided three-putting like the plague. Big greens here mean you either stick it or have massive lag putts in your future. Davis is losing strokes against the field in putts over 25 feet but is fourth in 3-Putt Avoidance. +175 is a price I can play for a guy in form and a course fit.

Joaquin Niemann to finish top-20 +175

Niemann was on the verge of being on my outright betting card this week. The only reason I left him off was that I couldn't get over the fact that he reminds me of an early-speed horse. One that sets the pace, but when others come around, he falls off a bit. Yet, much like his at the Genesis, he goes wire-to-wire by a few furlongs if he gets a lead and no one challenges.

Regardless of the analogy, I still like him to finish inside the top 20. His short game wasn't great at St. Jude, but he was still able to finish 13th. He likely won't gain +5.8 strokes on approach again, so he will have to rely on his putting again. That's something I'm not worried about. He's a solid putter who generally holds his own on the putting surface.

If he plays to his standard, he will undoubtedly be in the top 20.

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Kevin Kisner to finish top-20 +360

In sports betting, it's essential to find the +EV spots and stick with them. In golf, we see guys undervalued because they might be in poor form or overlooked due to the possibility of lacking desired strengths on the golf course. Kisner isn't long, and instantly, when people see a 7,500 par-71 course they want to attack bombers. I don't mind having an extra length off the tee, but I'm not ruling out guys who are deadly accurate and can putt.

While this course measures 7,500 yards, it's not as long as it might suggest. There are two holes that a very long, then the others are about average. Kisner is no stranger to a course like this, and he should succeed this week.

Kisner's game has been all over the place, but there's no arguing the three top 20s in his last four events. He generally finds himself in the mix if he keeps his ball in the fairway. The fairways here are wide enough where I don't see him having an issue off the tee. His price is too good for me to pass up.

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Brad Thomas

Brad is a sports handicapper who is lucky enough to write about his true love; sports. "We may all root for different teams, but our objective remains the same… Beat the books! Remember, it’s a marathon not a sprint." Follow Brad on Twitter @MrBradThomas.