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Odds and Ends

Brewers vs Rockies Odds, Bets: Burnes O/U 8.5 Strikeout Prop

by Vaughn Dalzell
Updated On: June 25, 2021, 10:24 am ET

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Corbin Burnes O/U 8.5 Strikeouts vs. Rockies

In his last start versus the Rockies, Corbin Burnes went 5.1 innings and tossed 96 pitches in a no-decision. He recorded six strikeouts, his lowest total of the season.

Playing at Coors Field is no easy task and the Rockies are lightyears better at home than on the road this season. With that being said, this matchup is in Milwaukee.

Colorado is 6-28 on the road this season, winning its last outing versus Seattle. Milwaukee has won four of its past five outings, all on the road. The Brewers are 7-3 in the previous 10 home games entering this matchup.

With Burnes on the mound, Milwaukee won three straight until the 6-5 loss to Colorado.

Burnes recorded 11, 10, 9, 9, 7, 7, 13 and 8 strikeouts in his home starts. Overall, Burnes has a 1.64 strikeout per inning average at home compared to 1.47 on the road. Burnes also owns his best ERA during day starts (1.32) along with a 1.64 strikeout per inning average.

At 1.64 Ks per inning, Burnes would need to last 5.0 innings or more to hit this, which he usually does. Burnes went 6.0 IP or longer in four straight until a combined 9.1 IP in his last two starts.

When he goes 6.1 innings or longer, he is 2-0 to the Over this season and 7-3 to the Over when he pitches between 5.0 and 6.0 innings.

NBC's model projects Burnes to go 6.1 innings and post 8.6 strikeouts. At home, Burnes averages 9.3 strikeouts per start and hit the Over 5-of-8 times (62.5%).

In the three Unders at home this season, Burnes posted 7, 7 and 8 Ks. Burnes is predicted to lead the league in strikeouts tonight, which I can see happening.

MLB K projections Model

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Per baseballsavant.com, Burnes' pitching percentile ranks all register as great besides max exit velocity. His last 50 PA have started trending towards league average with his last two starts, but fear not, Colorado is an excellent opponent to face at home.

Burnes velocity

 

Burnes went 6.0 IP or longer in 8-of-12 starts (66.7%). In those eight starts, Burnes has went Over his 8.5 strikeout total in 8-of-12 starts (66.7%). Burnes has struggled with strikeouts, sort of, seeing his numbers decline in four of the past five, cashing the Under, per props.cash.

BUNRES TRENDS

 

The Rockies are hitting .197 on the road this season (30th) and struck out 324 times (20th) in 34 games (T-26th) compared to 104 walks (22nd). I think this is a good time to jump back on the Burnes train after his last two starts.

Colorado also struggles to go yard on the road, only hitting 20 home runs on the year (30th). Burnes has allowed two home runs all season, the last coming six starts ago.

With the substances and "sticky stuff" surrounding K props, Burnes is a safe pitcher to back. Per baseballsavant.com, Burnes' spin rate has barely declined or stayed stagnant over the past month and on. The slight decline in RPM has arguably affected Burnes in his past five starts, but compared to other pitches and their new spin rate numbers, his RPM looks great.

Burnes spin rate

Burnes walked two hitters in his last start versus the Rockies and tied a season-high with four earned runs. However, in that 5.1 innings, Burnes faced 27 total batters, the most of the season. Flipping the script to Milwaukee being home, I like Burnes to hit the Over on his K prop.

Colorado has been terrible on the road this season and Burnes is in need for a rebound game of 5.0-plus innings. I like him to get it here and approach or surpass double-digit strikeouts.

Pick: Corbin Burnes Over 8.5 Strikeouts (1u)

 

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