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Odds and Ends

ECF Player Prop: Hawks vs Bucks, John Collins O/U 25.5 P+R Prop

by Vaughn Dalzell
Updated On: June 25, 2021, 10:24 am ET

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John Collins O/U 25.5 PTS + REB vs. Bucks

Want to hear a crazy stat? John Collins leads the NBA in rebound chances over the past five games. Collins averages 25.0 rebound chances per game in those five games and brings down 12.8 per outing.

Over the last three, five and seven-game splits, Collins leads the league in rebound chances with at least 23.3 per game. That's more than Deandre Ayton, Rudy Gobert, Joel Embiid and Giannis Antetokounmpo averaged in either their current or past series. 

In the postseason, Collins averages 14.6 points and 8.8 rebounds for 23.4 points and rebounds. However, in the past five games, Collins is third in the playoffs with 12.8 rebounds per game, second among active players, and averaging 15.4 points for 28.2 points and rebounds.

NBC's model projects Collins to post 16.1 points and 10.8 rebounds for 26.9 PRA in 36 minutes. Collins is one of three players projected to record a double-double.

ATL-MIL

 

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In the last 10 games, Collins has hit the Over six times (60%) and five of the past six (83.3%). A safe number to base Collins' production on is 33 minutes. Collins has played 33-plus minutes in nine straight games or every game since Game 5 versus the Knicks.

Per props.cash, Collins has hit the Over at 33 or more minutes in 16-of-25 (64.0%) on the season. In games without Deandre Hunter, Collins hit the Over in 16-of-20 (80%) at 32-plus minutes. Collins has cashed the Over 5-of-8 (62.5%) times in the playoffs without Hunter.

Collins trends

Collins played 37 minutes in Game 1 at Milwaukee. Minus his Game 2 injury versus the Knicks, Collins has played at least 34 minutes on the road in every playoff game. 

When Collins has hit 36 minutes, he is 4-1 to the Over in the postseason (80%) and an amazing 11-1 (91.7%) to the Over during the regular season. If he plays 36 minutes as the model projects, we have a great chance at cashing the Over.

Additionally, let's not forget Collins is in a restricted free agent heading into the summer. The 23-year-old is still playing on his rookie deal.

The Hawks reportedly offered him over $90 million for four years back in December/January, and he turned it down. 

Collins wants big money, a max contract, he says. Big performances in the playoffs are a good start to earning the payday he desires -- whether he gets it or not.

If you do not have P+R prop available, pivot to a double-double (Over 9.5 rebounds) or his Over 26.5 PRA numbers.

Pick: John Collins Over 25.5 Points + Rebounds (1u)

 

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