With the NFL Draft rapidly approaching, now is a good time to share some of the NBC Sports EDGE football, college football and betting staffs' favorite NFL Draft Props Bets. We are using PointsBet odds for our picks.
Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES - FIRST PLAYER DRAFTED: Jaycee Horn +250
Evaluating what the Eagles will do in the draft is interesting because their greatest positional needs clearly are WR and CB. The WR market has a notable drop off in talent after the top three of Ja'Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith, while the betting market suggests that these three will be selected within the top eleven picks. Putting these pieces together suggests that the Eagles were willing to give up their chance to take one of the "Big 3" by trading down from No. 6 to No. 12. Swapping picks with the Dolphins (who specifically have eyes for a wideout) could indicate Philadelphia has zeroed in on one of the top two cornerbacks in this class; Patrick Surtain or Jaycee Horn.
All signs have pointed the Dallas Cowboys towards Surtain if available at No. 10, which leaves Horn at No. 12 for the Eagles. The key risk here is that a team in the No. 7, No. 8 or No. 9 slots selects one of these two elite CB prospects, which would put pressure on Dallas to take the other, leaving the Eagles wanting and likely attempting to trade out of their pick to further accumulate assets.
Buzz around information circles have also indicated both the Los Angeles Chargers (picking No. 13) and the Arizona Cardinals (picking No. 16) have been exploring trade options to get in front of Philly at No. 12, with eyes specifically on Horn. This is both good and bad in that it confirms the Eagles' interest in the player, but also reduces the likelihood if the trade were to occur. Regardless, at +250 this is a price that can't be ignored and will make for a nice score on draft day if the pieces fall into place.
Thor Nystrom (@thorku)
Patrick Surtain Draft Position Under 10.5 (-200)
My favorite NFL Draft prop bet among the top-15 slots is Patrick Surtain Under 10.5. Enough people have agreed with me that you’re going to pay the juice to get this number — but it is still available. I believe Surtain’s draft floor is 1.10 to Dallas. However, the Cowboys will have to sweat through the three teams ahead of them to make it happen, as the Lions, Panthers and Broncos are also in play here. To lose this bet, it would require all three of those teams to pass — which could absolutely happen — and also for the Cowboys, with their desperate, multi-year corner need, to audible to another position or audible to South Carolina’s Jaycee Horn, who has a similar ceiling but carries more risk. You only lose if all four of those things happen, and the odds on that are remote.
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Vaughn Dalzell (@VMoneySports)
Kyle Trask Draft Position Under 70.5 (-125)
This line moved on PointsBet down to 66.5, then back up to 70.5. Trask was a borderline first-rounder with his play but has never been mentioned as a definite option. He led the country in passing touchdowns and had three or more in nine-straight games during his final season at Florida.
I like the former Gator to hear his name called in the second round. At least one QB has been drafted in the second round in four of the previous five seasons, and this year it will be between Trask, Kellen Mond and Davis Mills for second, third and fourth-round selections. I would play the Under 70.5.
Quarterbacks taken in the second and third round of the NFL Draft over the last five seasons:
2020: Jalen Hurts (53rd)
2018: Mason Rudolph (76th)
Corey Parson ( @TheFantasyExec)
Total Wide Receivers Drafted in the First Round, 4.5, Over (-334)
This is one of the NFL Draft props that I don't mind paying a heavier price for. The price on the Over may scare some, but there will be at least five WRs drafted in the first round of this year's draft. LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase along with Alabama’s Devonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle will all be top-15 picks, while Minnesota’s Rashod Bateman will be a top-25 pick. Elijah Moore (Ole Miss), Kadarius Toney (Florida) and Anthony Schwartz (Auburn) all have the chance to be first-round picks as well.
Kyle Dvorchak (@Kyletweetshere)
Kyle Pitts to Atlanta -150
This line should have moved to Atlanta as a prohibitive favorite to get Pitts once the Justin Fields prop collapsed to 8.5. If the market thinks Fields is out of the conversation for the Falcons, Pitts is the No. 4 pick. He is, by most measures, the most athletic tight end prospect in the last 25 years at least. On top of that, he dropped 770 yards and 12 scores in eight games as a junior at Florida.
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