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Keegan Akin O/U 4.5 strikeouts vs. Red Sox
Keegan Akin has been an interesting pitcher to watch and bet on all season long.
He is an Under machine in the strikeout department and I think today is a great day to fade Akin.
Since August began, the Red Sox have played 13 games and only four starting pitchers finished with five or more strikeouts (30.7%) per statmuse.
Akin will have a tough time versus everyone except Rafael Devers. For some reason, Devers is 0-for-3 with three strikeouts against Akin. Six other Boston hitters have 14 plate appearances, six hits and three total Ks.
The Red Sox hitters that have met Akin have found success. As a group, they hit .357 and have a .786 OPS versus Akin, although he has not pitched against Boston this year.
Last season near the end of the year, Akin earned the loss and threw 4.0 innings and 94 pitches against Boston. He recorded six strikeouts, eight hits, four runs and two earned runs. That was the only meeting of his career.
Back in Fenway, Akin is not someone worth backing on the road.
Akin hit the Over versus Detroit, cashing at five strikeouts in his previous start. However, Akin posted his second-worst spin rate outing of the season per baseballsavant.com.
As a result, Akin only lasted 3.0 innings and 68 pitches. August is also his worst spin rate month, as his average has decreased each month.
Akin owns a 0-4 road record, 8.44 ERA, .338 OBA, 46 hits allowed and 27 strikeouts to 13 walks in 32.0 innings pitched. In the previous 30 days, Akin's ERA is 11.57 and 8.53 in the last 15 days.
The Red Sox are hot in this series and need to compile wins for the AL East race. The Orioles are the perfect opponent to beat up, and they have done just that so far. Boston has won 8-1 and 16-2 over the past two games.
Akin averages 2.8 strikeouts per game in the last five and 3.3 on the season, well Under the 4.5 required.
NBC's model hit rate and player prop model projects Akin to post 4.4 strikeouts in 5.0 innings, but I doubt either happens.
He is averaging 2.8 strikeouts on the road this season and the Red Sox are getting it done at the plate lately.
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Back Boston as they are heating up this past week.
They posted an impressive 43 strikeouts (T-5th fewest) and 25 walks (T-4th) over the past six games with a .336 batting average (T-1st).
Those are scary numbers for Akin and worth backing as the Orioles pitcher should not see more than five innings, at best.
Pick: Keegan Akin Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1.5u)
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