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Odds and Ends

MLB Best Bets for August 10

by Kenny Ducey
Updated On: August 10, 2022, 6:04 pm ET

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We have a splendid baseball slate in store for Wednesday as we wrap up some series around the league, and it's about time we get to some best bets. Here's how I'm seeing the card.

St. Louis Cardinals (-160) vs. Colorado Rockies (+135) Total: 12

Dare I believe in the Rockies' bats for a second straight night? While I'm not sold on another win, or another double-digit offensive explosion, I do think they're in a good spot here, as are the Cardinals.

José Quintana has a 5.93 career ERA in five starts at Coors Field, and despite a couple of good outings in a row against some pretty middling competition owns poor pierpherals. The lefty's xwOBA on contact is very much below average, and his expected ERA is up over four runs. Hurting his case is the fact that the Rockies are inside the top 10 in wRC+ over the last two weeks and grade out as an above-average team against lefties according to that metric.

On the other side, Kyle Freeland owns a poor 5.55 ERA this season at Coors with some awful peripherals. St. Louis is fifth in wRC+ over the last two weeks and second against lefties. Everything screams over.

Edge: Over 12

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Minnesota Twins (+150) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-180) Total: 9

I'm just not a big Ryan Pepiot guy. The Dodgers starter is an extreme fly-ball pitcher, registering a 54.1% fly ball rate in 16 1/3 big-league innings this year. For context, league average is just above 23% at the moment.

That's nothing new, either. He was up at 37.6% this year in Triple-A, 41.3% last year in Triple-A, 51.7% in Double-A and 41.9% in Single-A. A fly ball pitcher gearing up to face a team ranked 13th in fly ball rate and eighth in home run-to-fly ball ratio while playing in a giant park isn't a very exciting proposition.

The Twins are 32-19 this year after a loss, good for a 9.14-unit profit, and 5-3 when throwing Sonny Gray after a loss. The righty has been solid with a 3.19 ERA and decent enough peripherals, and I think we see a big upset here in L.A.

Edge: Twins +150

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Kenny Ducey

Kenny Ducey is a former member of the Baseball Writers' Association of America, writing and editing for Sports Illustrated and Baseball Prospectus. His work also appears at DraftKings and The Action Network. Follow him on Twitter @KennyDucey.