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Odds and Ends

MLB Best Bets for August 16

by Kenny Ducey
Updated On: August 16, 2021, 4:57 pm ET

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If you're feeling the Monday blues, then a fun little 10-game card on the diamond Monday night is just the thing you need. With plenty of tight lines, there is money to be made everywhere. Without further ado, here are some of my favorite bets.

San Diego Padres (-130) vs. Colorado Rockies (+110) Total: 12.5

There are two things the Rockies do well: Hit at home, and hit left-handed pitching. It just so happens that the stars will align for Colorado on Monday, and it might deserve to be favored here against a lost Padres team.

The Rockies are the proud owners of a .759 OPS versus left-handed pitching, and at home this year have posted an .834 OPS with a very-low 19% strikeout rate. No matter the park, they've made a boatload of contact, but they've found much more power at altitude.

Ryan Weathers has pitched to contact for the most part, checking in with an 18% strikeout rate, and it hasn't gone well for him. Hitters have put the ball back in play at 95+ mph 43.8% of the time, tagging Weathers with a 5.38 xERA on the year. A high-contact team like Colorado should pose serious issues here, as should Antonio Senzatela against this slumping Padres side.

While we saw Fernando Tatis, Jr. provide an instant spark with his return on Sunday, they're still 18th in baseball over the last two weeks with a 101 wRC+. Senzatela has been one of those weird Rockies pitchers who actually performs better at Coors Field, and I have confidence he can keep the Padres at bay, as he sis when he faced them in May and surrendered four runs. With the way both offenses look, I see a win in Colorado's future.

Edge: Rockies +110

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New York Mets (+180) vs. San Francisco Giants (-220) Total: 8.5

This matchup should be as simple as it looks. The Mets are reeling, dealing with injuries to Francisco Lindor, Jacon deGrom and Javy Lopez. They just got swept out of Citi Field by the Dodgers. Now, they have to deal with fatigue after being moved to Sunday Night Baseball and taking a red eye into San Francisco. The jet lagged Mets should be sleepwalking through this one considering how lifeless they looked on Sunday against L.A.

Kevin Gausman should have something to do with that, too. The 30-year-old has pitched to a great 2.29 ERA this year and has limited the hard contact, which coincides with a Mets team that has been going through a power outage. The one thing New York does well is walk, and while Gausman has been average in that regard the entire Giants staff has been one of the best at limiting free passes.

With a great starter and a loaded bullpen, I think the Giants should be too much for the Mets on Monday. Rich Hill should get torched by a lineup that's been inconsistent over the last couple of weeks but has proven capable of capitalizing on bad pitching. Hill has yet to allow fewer than three runs as a member of the Mets.

Edge: Giants -1.5 (-110)

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Kenny Ducey

Kenny Ducey is a former member of the Baseball Writers' Association of America, writing and editing for Sports Illustrated and Baseball Prospectus. His work also appears at DraftKings and The Action Network. Follow him on Twitter @KennyDucey.