Loading scores...
Odds and Ends

MLB Best Bets for August 4

by Kenny Ducey
Updated On: August 4, 2022, 6:05 pm ET

The App is Back! Don't forget to download the NBC Sports EDGE app to receive real-time player news, mobile alerts and track your favorite players. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards. Get it here!

We have a splendid baseball slate in store for Thursday as we begin some good series around the league, and it's about time we get to some best bets. Here's how I'm seeing the card.

Toronto Blue Jays (-125) vs. Minnesota Twins (+105) Total: 8

The under is 15-10-1 when Sonny Gray pitches, and of the last eight Twins games which Gray has started have gone under as well. There's a good chance this run continues on Thursday.

That's because Alek Manoah is pitching on the other side against a Minnesota team that has produced just a 98 wRC+ over the last two weeks with some atrocious power numbers. He has been an under machine himself, netting bettors a positive return in his starts, and with how bleak things are looking these days for the Twins we should expect something close to a shutout.

The Blue Jays may scare you here considering they've won 13 of 17, but we should note that they not only have a seventh-ranked wRC+ but a .172 ISO. Neither is necessarily bad, but for a team that has consistently had some of the best power numbers around and which is so hot, you'd expect better.

Edge: Under 8

Editor's Note: NBC Sports Predictor: Play for FREE and win huge jackpots up to $100,000! Download the app today.

Boston Red Sox (-140) vs. Kansas City Royals (+120) Total: 9

If you head on over to our Edge Finder, you'll see that betting on the Royals when Kris Bubic starts has netted you 6.98 units. That's right — the Kansas City Moneyline has gone 16-13, cashing in six of the last eight Bubic starts.

The lefty has been somewhat remarkable of late, failing to allow more than three runs in a start since June, and he will face a Boston side sporting a strikeout rate north of 22% against lefties and a which enters on a cold streak. The Sox have struck out at a 27.8% clip over the last two weeks with an 82 wRC+.

Nick Pivetta's season has quickly turned into a nightmare given his 4.47 ERA and 4.52 xERA, and with a high 46.2% hard-hit rate against him it's easy to see why. The Royals are live underdogs.

Edge: Royals +120

PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links. CO, IL, IN, IA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, WV, and VA. only. 21+. T&C apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Kenny Ducey

Kenny Ducey is a former member of the Baseball Writers' Association of America, writing and editing for Sports Illustrated and Baseball Prospectus. His work also appears at DraftKings and The Action Network. Follow him on Twitter @KennyDucey.