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Odds and Ends

MLB Best Bets for September 13

by Kenny Ducey
Updated On: September 13, 2021, 3:56 pm ET

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It's Monday, and a holiday, and there's no better cure for the early-week blues than a loaded baseball card. There are some great matchups on the slate, and I've got a couple picked out that I really like. With that said, let's get into it.

Tampa Bay Rays (+110) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (-131) Total: 9

While both the Rays and Jays are among the three best offenses statistically over the last two weeks, the Jays simply stand along. They own a 167 wRC+, coupled with a stupid 1.002 OPS and an incredibly low 16.3% strikeout rate. Their at-bats have been immaculate, and their play has led them to the doorstep of the postseason.

Toronto will need its best night at the dish against Collin McHugh, who has been excellent this year. He brings an immaculate 2.36 xERA into this one, and the rest of the Rays bullpen behind him has been strong of late.

That's alright, because Toronto has Alek Manoah going. The righty struck out 10 Rays over seven scoreless innings the last time he saw them. Manoah has had some ups and downs this season but on the whole he has been one of the more effective pitchers in the second half. I like him to shove and for this offense to stay hot.

Edge: Blue Jays -131

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Boston Red Sox (-125) vs. Seattle Mariners (+105) Total: 8

Seattle is the opposite of Toronto, possessing one of the league's least convincing offenses of late. The Mariners just fell at home to the Diamondbacks two out of three and have lost four out of six games. Now, they have to run into the Red Sox, who are getting healthy and getting hot with a high barrel rate over the last two weeks and will have to break through Eduardo Rodriguez

The lefty has not only pitched well this season according to his peripherals, he also should have an automatic edge against a Mariners team which is 25th in wRC+ to left-handed pitchers. Madison Bumgarner was able to quiet this team a few days ago, so Rodriguez should have no problem.

Then, there's Logan Gilbert, who has been ever-volatile and shouldn't enjoy facing a team full of exit velocity machines. I think Boston takes this one rather convincingly.

Edge: Red Sox -125

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Kenny Ducey

Kenny Ducey is a former member of the Baseball Writers' Association of America, writing and editing for Sports Illustrated and Baseball Prospectus. His work also appears at DraftKings and The Action Network. Follow him on Twitter @KennyDucey.