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Jameson Taillon
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Odds and Ends

MLB Best Bets for September 22

by Kenny Ducey
Updated On: September 23, 2022, 1:29 pm ET

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We've got a packed slate of baseball to bet on Wednesday and I've picked out two games which I'm seeing plenty of value in. Let's get to them.

Boston Red Sox (+125) vs. New York Yankees (-145) Total: 8

Here we go again with Jameson Taillon facing a Red Sox as a short favorite. Last time, the Yankees lost 3-0. Before that, it was a 14-1 win.

So, what happens here? Well, I think New York picks up another win. It has Giancarlo Stanton, Harrison Bader and Scott Effross now back in the fold, and there is a new energy about this team. The Yankees sit atop the league with a 145 wRC+ over the last two weeks, and they draw one of the biggest regression candidates in baseball in Michael Wacha.

The veteran right-hander owns a 4.07 xERA and can't be trusted in this spot. While Taillon hasn't been the best pitcher in the world, he hasn't exactly had an easy schedule and this should be his best matchup in some time.

Edge: Yankees -145

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Atlanta Braves (-145) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (+125)

If you take away the Yankees, who have played just once in this scenario, the Phillies are the best team in baseball as home underdogs with a 6-5 record.

So, I'm feeling good about firing them up again here against Max Fried. While that sounds like a scary sentence, Fried has allowed at least two earned runs in every start he's made against Philly this season, and this team is sixth in wRC+ to lefties. The Phillies are familiar with him, and they should be able to conquer this challenge.

I'm also somewhat encouraged by Ranger Suárez, who has seen some positive regression, and generally low on the Atlanta offense after a pretty poor showing on Wednesday against the lowly Nationals. 

Edge: Phillies +125

Kenny Ducey

Kenny Ducey is a former member of the Baseball Writers' Association of America, writing and editing for Sports Illustrated and Baseball Prospectus. His work also appears at DraftKings and The Action Network. Follow him on Twitter @KennyDucey.