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Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
Odds and Ends

MLB Best Bets for September 6

by Kenny Ducey
Updated On: September 6, 2021, 10:13 am ET

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It's Monday, and a holiday, and there's no better cure for the early-week blues than a loaded baseball card. There are some great matchups on the slate, and I've got a couple picked out that I really like. With that said, let's get into it.

New York Mets (-131) vs. Washington Nationals (+110) Total: 9.5

The Mets are like a car crash you can't look away from. They continue to find ways to win baseball games to stay in the playoff hunt, and Monday should be no different against a Nationals team that's seemed to punt on the season and will throw Patrick Corbin.

New York has been surprisingly competent against lefties this year with a 93 wRC+, and over the last week this team owns a 138 wRC+ which makes them very dangerous here, particularly against Corbin. The lefty has allowed four homers and six walks over his last two starts, yielding six runs in each of them. That's very bad!

On the other side of things, the Mets have won both of Trevor Williams' starts, and he seems to be a guy who gives them a chance to win in almost every one of his outings. His 4.19 xERA doesn't blow you away, but he has a very good 6% barrel rate which keeps him out of trouble. Against a Washington team that has struggled so mightily, I think this is a good spot to back the Mets as they keep playing well.

Edge: Mets -131

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Philadelphia Phillies (+120) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-140) Total: 7

Much like the Mets, the Phillies are an unexpected playoff contender at this point in the season. This team has struggled to hit for months, yet it has turned it on offensively over the last two weeks and now sits just two games out of the lead in the NL East.

Over the last two weeks, no team has made more contact than the Phillies at better than 81%, and they've backed that up with a 17.1% strikeout rate and a 9.6% walk rate. The at-bats have been incredible from this team, and that should prepare them well for a date with Brandon Woodruff.

Though Woodruff doesn't do much wrong, he can be reliant on the strikeout, with 18 in his last two outings. He also doesn't allow many hard-hit balls, but the Phillies have been bottom-five in that department over the last two weeks. I think this could actually be a get-right spot for Zach Wheeler with the Brewers striking out so much and a surprisingly good matchup for the Philadelphia offense.

Edge: Phillies +120

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Kenny Ducey

Kenny Ducey is a former member of the Baseball Writers' Association of America, writing and editing for Sports Illustrated and Baseball Prospectus. His work also appears at DraftKings and The Action Network. Follow him on Twitter @KennyDucey.