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Odds and Ends

MLB Betting Preview and Prediction for Game 5 of Dodgers vs Giants

by Vaughn Dalzell
Updated On: October 16, 2021, 10:45 am ET

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Dodgers at Giants (-110): O/U 7.0

This is what October baseball is all about!

Is it me or does this Giants team feel destined to go to the World Series?

Logan Webb versus Julio Urias is the pitching matchup in San Francisco for Game 5 win or go home. We all expected this to go five games, so here we are.

Webb has recorded a 1.80 ERA at home, and the Giants are 22-5 in all of his 2021 starts. For Urias, the Dodgers have won 12 straight starts with him on the mound and 27 of the last 33. 

That reminds me of when Max Scherzer won 12 straight with the Dodgers and lost in Game 3 to the Giants.

Against one another, the Giants own the regular season series with 10 wins and nine losses. The Dodgers scored 80 runs and the Giants 78. Both teams enter tonight's contest with 109 wins. Can it get anymore even?

NBC's Game Predictions model favors the Giants in the winner-take-all and has low value when it comes to the O/U of 7.0.

SF LAD

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For the Dodgers, key hitters like Justin Turner (.095) and Corey Seager (.200) are struggling. Cody Bellinger (6 Ks in 13 AB) will start in the 8-hole and Chris Taylor (.250) in the 7-hole. As the postseason has gone on, I have become less and less confident in the Dodgers' future.

San Francisco's lineup isn't the best either with Darin Ruf (.000) and Donovan Solano (.000) getting the starts on 12 AB's in the postseason. However, during the regular season both hitters averaged a .250 BA each against Urias on 38 combined plate appearances.

I expect Buster Posey (.313), Brandon Crawford (.250) and Kris Bryant (.462) to come up big for the Giants at home.

All three hitters have stellar numbers against Urias and carry veteran leadership in that locker room behind a stud ace on the mound. The Giants have scored in every game, while the Dodgers were shutout twice.

I have waited all season for San Fran to tail off and fadeaway but it hasn't happened yet.

I bet the Dodgers to win the NL at +175 during Spring Training, a hedge here is appropriate if you are in the same boat as me, but I truly think San Fran gets it done at home.

Writing as someone who attended a winner take all game -- the crowd will be rocking and intimidating. Whoever scores first will probably win this game, because that has happened in all four postseason meetings between the two. 

The Giants have the pitching edge with most if not all the pressure on the Dodgers to live up to the fans, media and their own expectations of back-to-back World Series -- plus the public money will be all over the Dodgers.

Pick: Giants ML (1u)

 

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Vaughn Dalzell

Vaughn Dalzell is a former Division I SID, two-time IUP Alumnus and former contributor for numberFire, FantasyPros and Bet The Prop. You can follow him on Twitter for more insight @VmoneySports.