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Odds and Ends

MLB K Props, August 17th: Erick Fedde, Jordan Montgomery O/U Ks

by Vaughn Dalzell
Updated On: August 17, 2021, 10:27 am ET

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Erick Fedde O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Blue Jays

Erick Fedde will get his 10th home start of the season and second overall against the Toronto Blue Jays.

In Fedde's last two starts, he only lasted 4.0 and 4.2 innings, facing the Mets and Braves. In his three August starts, Fedde has a .300 OBA and 5.52 ERA -- troublesome numbers versus Toronto.

Over his last four games, he has allowed two or more earned runs in all four and 13 total over 19.1 innings. In that same stretch, Fedde has 19 strikeouts, thanks to an eight-K game versus the Cubs.

Outside the Cubs, Fedde had four strikeouts against the Meta and Phillies, plus three Ks against Braves. Not very ideal coming into a matchup with the Blue Jays.

In August, Toronto has done well keeping starting pitchers Under four and five strikeouts. Over the last 16, 11of the starting pitchers stayed Under 4.5 strikeouts (68.7%) and nine of 16 Under 3.5 Ks (56.2%), per statmuse.

SP vs TOR

 

Fedde faced Toronto back in April and recorded seven strikeouts in 6.0 innings. That was a long time ago and a lot has changed since then, including who Fedde will see.

Versus Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., George Springer, Randal Grichuk and Corey Dickerson have a combined 15 plate appearances and zero strikeouts. 

The only hitters who have struck out are Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Marcus Semien, who have the three Ks on a combined 12 at-bats.

Of all the Toronto hitters on the current roster that have faced Fedde, they have a combined 28 plate appearances and three strikeouts to three walks. That same group has seven hits, a .267 batting average and .933 OPS. 

In the prior game, Fedde struck out Vlad, Semien, Cavan Biggio (injured since 8/2), Joe Panik (Marlins) and Bo Bichette

Over the past week, Semien has five strikeouts in his last 32 plate appearances, while Vlad and Bichette have 13 combined Ks in 53 at-bats.

Using NBC's hit rate chart, Fedde has gone Under 4.5 strikeouts in 12-of-19 (63%) games this season, seven of his last 10 (70%) and four of the past five (80%).

Fedde

 

Back Fedde to struggle and go Under his strikeout total versus this tough Toronto offense that has the seventh-fewest Ks in the past week (50) and second-fewest of teams that played seven games.

I grabbed this at +100 for 1.5u and would play this out to -150 range to be honest. This is close to being a 2 unit and maybe by the end of the day. Check back @VmoneySports on Twitter once lineups are announced.

Pick: Erick Fedde Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1.5u)

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Jordan Montgomery O/U 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Red Sox

Jordan Montgomery, like Gerrit Cole, is coming back from COVID after sitting since August 1st.

For the fourth time, Montgomery will face the Red Sox and draw the start at Yankee Stadium versus Boston for the second time in 2021.

The Yankees 28-year-old lefty has made eight-day starts and posted a 5.13 ERA, .237 OBA and 42 strikeouts in 40.1 innings pitched. His ERA at night is 2.91, so very different numbers for Montgomery with the sun out.

Speaking of sun, it will hot and humid in New York today. This will be the first of a double-header, so a seven-inning game.

Montgomery started one seven-inning game at home this season against Toronto and went 4.2 innings on 73 pitches and one strikeout, hitting the Under.

New York won 5-3, but Montgomery earned a no-decision with three earned runs allowed.

In the last seven games versus LHP, Boston has held six of the seven Under 5.5 strikeouts (85.7%) with Shane McClanahan (7) going Over, per statmuse.

LHP vs BOS

 

In the last seven games overall, Boston has kept six of the seven starting pitchers Under 5.5 strikeouts (85.7%).

At home, Montgomery has gone Over 5.5 strikeouts in 6-of-9 games (66.6%), making this a tough fade. However, his Unders came against Boston, Houston and Toronto.

The Overs were against Baltimore, Chicago (White Sox), New York (Mets), Oakland and Tampa Bay twice.

Did you see it? The Unders are three of the best strikeout teams in the league, while the Overs are against prime candidates for Over K Props, except maybe Oakland.

I will have to go against the grain versus a profitable home pitcher and ride my trend here, going Under 5.5 strikeouts as six Ks would require 5.0-plus innings from Montgomery.

When Montgomery goes 5.0-plus innings this season, he is 9-8 to the Over 5.5 Ks (52.9%) and 9-4 (69.2%) when he surpasses 5.1 innings, so hope for a reliever to start the sixth inning, or even the fifth if he gets rocked.

It will be hot and humid in Boston today for the 1:05 first pitch, and if there is contact made, the Red Sox could have a day. Last night's weather was perfect for Cole's return but today seems like Montgomery got the short end of the stick (or game). 

Montgomery has an 18.8% strikeout percentage against this current Boston roster. The Main concerns are Bobby Dalbec, Hunter Renfroe and Enrique Hernandez. The good news, Boston does have 41 Ks in the last six games, the third-lowest in the league over the past week.

I will wait for lineup's as this is the earliest game and make my play on the Under pending the matchups.

However, if the line moves to the -140 range or an another outlet, grab the best line possible because a 4.5 is a no-play here.

Pick: Jordan Montgomery Under 5.5 Strikeouts (1u)

 

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